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Playing the KOC odds

framer

framer

Well-Known Member
There are a few things that we know about KOC in general.

1. It is very unlikely that he will project ahead of time who he will draft. If there is a consensus about who he is drafting, it is likely incorrect, either because the media is off and KOC likes it that way, or because KOC has issued a smokescreen. It would not surprise me at all if the Jazz have Walker or Jimmer rated higher than Knight on their draft board, because of all of the noise about Knight. Never believe "noise" from Jazz insiders concerning the draft.

2. They will stick to their draft board like glue. If a higher rated player falls, the Jazz will draft that player and not play the "why is this player falling?" game. Borchardt, Koufos, and Brewer pretty much confirm this.

3. Jazz seem to draft for size and frame in the first round and will take a shot at "tweeners" later on, especially in the second. This may be why they do so well in the second as compared to the first.

4. All of this may be moot with Corbin replacing Sloan. I'm not sure that any outsiders have an accurate reading of the dynamic between KOC and Sloan when it came to the draft. I suspect that KOC eventually made the choice however, and was largely on the same page as Sloan.


Based on this, I predict the Jazz draft whoever falls between Williams and Kanter, and then draft whichever top 10 pick falls to 12. It is possible the Jazz may have a different top 10 than the media. I don't see any big reaches however. I highly doubt that they have already penciled anyone in at either slot at this point.
 
I'd believe you, but it was no secret that the Jazz were going to pick up Deron Williams on draft day, despite not being in a position to select him.
 
I don't remember it that way at all. I remember thinking that it was obvious that the Jazz were going to draft a point guard. When Atlanta committed to Marvin Williams I actually thought the Jazz were going to go with Paul. Most everybody had linked DWill with the Jazz because they figured Paul would be off the board at 2. Once we knew the Jazz had a choice, it was still up in the air if I remember correctly. Jazz went with the larger, more durable PG.

I could be wrong, but those were my impressions.
 
A fun theoretical question:

What if Milluakee had drafted Paul #1 and Atlanta Stuck with Marvin Williams at #2. Would Utah have drafted Bogut over D Williams?

I suspect that they would have.
 
If Bogut had been available, that would have been very interesting indeed...
True about bigs; we always seem to go for what we consider a quality big over a smaller guy. In the NBA that's not unusual. Sometimes we're badly mistaken regarding the "quality" thing, or an injury derails us...
I think KoC is keeping an open mind and his ear near the phone regarding how he picks or trades in this draft. Now is NOT the time to fall in love with ANY player; just have a plan to deal with ANY development as the draft unfolds and stick with it!
 
You have concisely stated everything we know and can safely guess. But this is a message board, the land of wild guessing.
 
framer said:
A fun theoretical question:

What if Milluakee had drafted Paul #1 and Atlanta Stuck with Marvin Williams at #2. Would Utah have drafted Bogut over D Williams?

I suspect that they would have.
Click to expand...

I don't - The Jazz already had Okur and Boozer in the front court locked in with multi year deals.

They had Keith McLeod and Raul Lopez at PG - Lopez might have already been gone by draft day - I don't recall.

Despite being #1 in the draft, Bogut was not head and shoulders over everyone else. Williams still would have been the right pick.
 
Bogut would have been the guy if he slipped to 6, not sure if they would have traded up for him like they did Williams though. There was no certainty that Okur was a starting center, in spite of what he got paid, given that he was a consistent player with the Pistons. I think they would have taken Bogut and started him or Okur, based on whomever had a better training camp.
 
framer said:
A fun theoretical question:

What if Milluakee had drafted Paul #1 and Atlanta Stuck with Marvin Williams at #2. Would Utah have drafted Bogut over D Williams?

I suspect that they would have.
Click to expand...

My memory from that draft was that Bogut was the consensus #1. I"m here in Utah so I probably heard more pro-Bogut spin than elsewhere, but that's what I remember. So yeah, I think if Bogut somehow fell to 3rd I think they would've drafted him.
 
I'm just about positive Bogut was #1 on just about every draft board. In retrospect of course Paul and DWill go first, but back then there were question marks with each of there games (or rather body types). There were even people on this board saying that Felton or Jarret Jack would do just as well.

My favorite were the people who kept wanting to trade back down to get both Gerald Green and Jarret Jack. There's a lesson in there somewhere I believe. . .
 
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