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Playoffs or Lottery Pick?

I did a strength of remaining schedule, home and road, and game by game analysis of all the 5-10 teams in the West for the rest of the season this afternoon, gave every team a benefit of the doubt win or two and had the Jazz finishing out the season 14-9, good enough for the 6 seed. I wasn't biased, I took everything into consideration outside of injuries, just because we don't know what's going to happen as far as that goes. The years of almost all the western teams being 50 win ball clubs is over, and I think that 5-10 group is all going to finish in the 43-48 win range. The Jazz have the second best remaining strength of schedule, and although we have more road than home, I think we have some favorable match-ups. Here's how I think the 5-10 seeds will finish:

5. NO 48-34 Middle of the pack as far as SOS goes, two more home games than road.
6. Utah 46-36 Second lowest SOS
7. Portland 45-37 Toughest remaining SOS of the group, but a team that's really starting to come together with Roy back, Camby and Wallace playing this weekend plus they only have to finish .500 to get to this record. They win the tie-breaker at home against Memphis the last week of the season.
8. Memhis 45-37 Second hardest SOS, but far and away the most home heavy schedule of this group and some decent match-ups. Lose the tie-breaker game @Portland in the second to last game of the season.
9. Denber 44-38 The easiest remaining SOS of the group, but a team without any go-to guys, the post trade emotional high will wear off soon, and they have two more games on the road than home.
10. Phoenix 43-39 Tough remaining SOS, 11 at home, 15 on the road and I STILL have them finishing the season 14-12, but coming up just short.

For a team that's in a fairly promising situation as far as making the playoffs goes, tanking just seems pointless. Sure, I'd love another lottery pick, even in a "weak" draft. Sure, we're not getting by LA or Dallas in the first round, but we have a chance to get our guys some good experience, and I think we'll give any team hell in a first round playoff series or at least keep it entertaining. I say go for the playoffs, let these players grow together as much as possible.
 
Think about Andrei Kirilenko's first playoff game in Sacramento in 2002, and Carlos Boozer's first playoff game in Houston in 2007. Playoff experience for Al Jefferson, Gordon Hayward, and Derrick Favors would be invaluable - even if it is a 1st-round butt-kicking. Take your licks and learn to adjust to the pressure, an entirely new intensity level and the physical style of play - and build on it for next season - whenver that may be.

Nets pick should be top-10. W/Favors, Hayward and Evans the Jazz already have alot of youth. I'm not too wild about adding 2 more rookies to the roster (don't forget Tomic COULD be joining the Jazz for the 2011-12 season as well).
If you add multiple 1st-round picks in the same year, you'll face a dilemna deciding who to pay down the road - and there's no one in the draft I'd be willing to package those picks for to move up.
 
vslice02 said:
Think about Andrei Kirilenko's first playoff game in Sacramento in 2002, and Carlos Boozer's first playoff game in Houston in 2007. Playoff experience for Al Jefferson, Gordon Hayward, and Derrick Favors would be invaluable - even if it is a 1st-round butt-kicking. Take your licks and learn to adjust to the pressure, an entirely new intensity level and the physical style of play - and build on it for next season - whenver that may be.
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Not just that, but our head coach. Ty Corbin might've been an assistant during our recent playoff pushes (2007-2010), but it's a big difference being the head man in a seven game series than third chair.
 
Tanking sets up a very bad culture for most teams/players. They get used to losing and instead of looking at it like "We need to do better next time! That was awful and below our potential " They look at it "Meh.. just another lose".

Along with the fact this is a weak draft + you got 2 lottery (maybe 2 lottery) this year from other teams, just aim high and aim for the playoffs. Experience is something that should never be overlooked.
 
I just want the team to play hard if they are good enough to get into the playoffs then I would be happy for them. However, if they are playing crapping and still make the playoffs because other teams play crappy. I would rather not make the playoffs. We can always trade our lotto pick or use it to move up in the draft or perhaps there is a few golden nuggets in the draft that haven't been discovered, or we could also go international with it and keep the player overseas for a few years. What I would like to see is more effort from the team like they displayed in Indy along with better shooting. If the Jazz are playing well then it would be exciting to be in the playoffs. I don't think getting swept is that great for any team.

The test for me will be can they put a winning streak together and beat a few of the real contenders at their place. A victory in LA or SA, Dallas would get me fired up. Tanking means that you aren't even trying to win, and I never would want that to happen. I do want Hayward, Favors and Fess to get some playing time though.
 
Definitely playoffs. Just for the fact that I get to see at least 4 more Jazz games for the season. Hopefully more.
 
Marty McFly said:
We have 3 rookies on this team. One is 19, one is 20. We have the Nets pick coming up. That means we'll have 4 kids on this team who are going to need development. Getting rookies and Big Al some playoff experience would be excellent. Nothing like a thwacking by the Spurs to teach guys how to play tough.

We have so many young guys. I wouldn't be surprised to see KOC package a pick and a player for somebody established.
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This.
Experience is really really important.
And yes trading NJ pick (regardless if with another player) is the best option to go to get pieces to upgrade the lineup.
 
I'm torn on this. I was all for the lottery but I can't stop myself from cheering for wins. So heart wins out over mind, its playoffs or bust!!! If we don't make though I won't be terribly disappointed.
 
Playoffs. With Hayward, Favors, Evans and Tomic possibly coming over and the Nets' pick, we have enough young players. The Jazz need to create a commitment to winning, playing team ball, and pride. Call me crazy, but I think the Jazz could actually win a round.
 
Draft blows, and this team could definitely use the experience. Besides, I want to see them succeed. Missing the playoffs in 03-04 was crushing, despite it being one of the most fun seasons I've experienced as a Jazz fan.
 
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