Poeltl coming back next year!

[7StraightIsGreat]

Is Chapman really a 3? I know he's a wuss in the post, so you probably don't want him hanging around the basket, but that's not enough of a qualifying skillset to play the 3.

The kid was a rail thin true freshman. "Wuss" is a little harsh, but not surprising considering the source. At 6'9", I think he's better suited at the 4 so we'll see if he can start to add some muscle on that frame and not be such a wuss. However, his shooting range and athleticism should allow for him to get some minutes at the 3 if need be.

 

[green]

Is Chapman really a 3? I know he's a wuss in the post, so you probably don't want him hanging around the basket, but that's not enough of a qualifying skillset to play the 3.

I'd argue that Chapman has more potential at the three than Loveridge. Chapman has a very nice shot. Plus, you have Kuzma and Reyes at the 4 spot. Finally, if Chapman can improve his handle a little, he could be a better three than Loveridge. Also, Chapman at the three helps with length.

Utah also has Maiwen and Bealer coming in, who they are very high on. Some are saying Bealer will start at the two for Utah.

Whether Utah progresses from a top 15 team to a top 5 team will come down to two things:

Can Wright or Taylor improve their ball handling and can Utah improve their rebounding. If the answer is yes, this could easily be a final four team. If not, then we will see a repeat of last year.

 

[freakazoid]

The flip side to that argument is the fact that we've seen so many raw, unrefined, big men make a premature jump to the NBA thanks to the old adage: "You can't coach size". I've always been of the opinion that rawer prospects are better off refining their game at the college level as opposed to trying to learn from the bench in the NBA.

And if he gets injured and misses the opportunity of a lifetime, I'm sure he'll be comforted by the fact he might have had more minutes to develop at the college level. Meanwhile, he can spend the next twenty to fifty years trying to make the amount of money he passed on. If only the NBA had a development system set up so rookies don't rot on the bench.

Probably a smart move, I would imagine the rookie salaries will jump up substantially next year.

Incorrect. Rookie salaries are set by the CBA and won't change with the jump in the cap.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Yeah, rookie salaries aren't going to jump that much ever, even with a new CBA. Who is there to represent rookie interest in a negotiations?

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

And if he gets injured and misses the opportunity of a lifetime, I'm sure he'll be comforted by the fact he might have had more minutes to develop at the collage level. Meanwhile, he can spend the next ten to twenty years trying to make the amount of money he passed on. If only the NBA had a development system set up so rookies don't rot on the bench.



Incorrect. Rookie salaries are set by the CBA and won't change with the jump in the cap.

Even if he gets injured he will still get drafted. It would have to be a catastrophic injury for him not to be able to live comfortably off his b-ball skills for the rest of his life.

 

[green]

So, I had a slow day today and I compared the money earned over Poeltl's career if he left early vs staying another year. The big argument is that you should always leave early so you can make more money over your career. I've never really bought into this, especially if you can improve your draft status. I used salary estimates for this year and next year for my numbers. That means that my numbers will be low as far as potential lifetime earnings, and the cap would jump before he hit his max deals.

If he is a #5 pick in 2015 compared to to the #5 pick in 2016 and signs two max contracts, he will make:
$195,275,241 (2015) vs 206,683,838 (2016). So he would make an additional $11,408,597 by staying in school.

If he is a #10 pick in 2015 compared to the #10 pick in 2016 and signed two max contracts, he will make:
$190,901,456 (2015) compared to 202,156,970 (2016). So he would make an additional $11,255,514 by staying in school.

If he is picked #20 in 2015 and #10 in 2016, he would make an additional $14,777,955 by staying in school.

If he is picked #15 in 2015 and #10 in 2016, he would make an additional $13,283,341 by staying in school.

If he is picked #20 in 2015 and #5 in 2016, he would make an additional $19,304,823 by staying in school.

If he is picked #10 in 2015 and #5 in 2016, he would make an additional $15,782,382 by staying in school.

Now, my math could be wrong, and if it is please show me where. But, leaving school early to get drafted lower doesn't seem to get you life changing money vs staying in school for an additional year.

If he went #15 this year, his rookie deal would be worth $7,202,909. If he goes #10 next year, his rookie deal would be worth $9,553,811. So, even if he flames out after his rookie deal, by staying in school, he would have netted himself an additional 2 million dollars.

You should put yourself in the best position to be a max player. If you feel that the NBA will teach you how to do this, then go early. If you feel that your college coach will put in more time and effort to help you accomplish this, then stay in school. Larry Krystkowiak has shown that he knows how to develop big men. Poeltl is trying to be a max money big man.

He knows who Coach Krystkowiak is. He has seen his results. What happens if Poeltl is drafted by Sacramento? Or Minnesota? Or another team that has shown little desire in developing young players? What happens if Corbin is his HC? Then he would be much better served coming into the NBA as a more polished player, and relying less on the NBA developers.

Why take that chance over $100,000,000? You have seen how far big men have come in Coach K's system. You know that you will be the Utes best player next year. You will be featured. You will be developed. And, if you can move up from the 15th pick to the 10th pick next year, you will be paid an additional $2,000,000 for your troubles.

In my opinion, it was a no brainer to come back for Poeltl. For development reasons, for money reasons, for future earnings reasons.

I don't get why people think you definitely go because you will lose all this money if you don't. That's not the case for a pick 10 or lower player. For a top 3 pick player? Sure. Not for a guy like Poeltl. The no brainer decision is to go back to school.

 

[green]

tl/dr version:

If Poeltl moves from the 15th pick in 2015 to the 10th pick in 2016, he will make an additional $2,000,000+ on his rookie deal and potential an additional $13,000,000+ over his career by staying in school.

If his goal is to make the most money possible, the no brainer decision is to stay in school for another year.

 

[Duck Rodgers]

What kind of numbers would he have to put up to be top 10 though? You get so much benefit from perceived potential when you've only played a Freshman year. A little less so each subsequent year. Will 15/10 do it?

 

[green]

What kind of numbers would he have to put up to be top 10 though? You get so much benefit from perceived potential when you've only played a Freshman year. A little less so each subsequent year. Will 15/10 do it?

Probably. I think improvement is more important than numbers. He needs to become stronger, a better rebounder. He already has elite size and hands. He is lacking strength. I do think 15 and 10 should be the goal.

He was at 9 and 7 this year with two blocks per game. He shot 68% FG.

I would think 15 and 10, 60% FG, 2 blocks and a sweet sixteen gets him top 10. I would think that 15 and 10 with 60% FG and two blocks with final four gets him top 5.

Coach Krystkowiak has been awesome developing big men. I think next year will be a special one for Utah and Poeltl. Also, don't forget about Kuzma and Chapman. Utah could have a very scary frontline.