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Point Forward's perspective on Jefferson

Q

Qman

Well-Known Member
https://nba-point-forward.si.com/2012/09/11/nba-players-under-pressure/

The Big-Name Veteran Free Agent To Be
• Al Jefferson, Utah Jazz. There will be other star free agents, of course, but I’m not sure any have a value quite as difficult to peg. Jefferson has added to his game on the edges. He’s a solid one-on-one post defender now, having held opponents to 39 percent shooting on post-up plays last season (per Synergy Sports), and he has gotten better at passing to cutters from the high and low post. But he’s still the same Big Al in the macro sense — a low-post guy who needs the ball, shoots a ton, hits half his shots, earns very few fouls shots and struggles as badly as any big man in the league in guarding the pick-and-roll. Jefferson has value; Utah would not have made the postseason or ranked among the league’s top-10 offenses without him. But it’s hard to see any team playing Jefferson 35 minutes a game cracking the championship conversation in a pick-and-roll league — unless Jefferson makes a leap on defense as he approaches free agency. Will Utah pay Jefferson, even with Paul Millsap (a better player) also entering free agency and four recent lottery picks set for big raises over the next few years? And if Utah’s out, what’s the market for Jefferson?
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IMO in the end we will see Jefferson let go for nothing. As we try find the pieces to a championship team.
 
i honestly think it depends on what kantor does this year... does he finally emerge as the 3rd pick utah expected? if so then they dont need jefferson anymore.. and the kantor favors milsap rotation can finally begin!:cool:
 
JGolds said:
i honestly think it depends on what kantor does this year... does he finally emerge as the 3rd pick utah expected? if so then they dont need jefferson anymore.. and the kantor favors milsap rotation can finally begin!:cool:
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Jefferson provides post scoring. If Burks, Hayward and Favors can fill the scoring roles then Jefferson is expendable and we can play Kanter and benefit from his improved defense and rebounding.
 
I dislike Jefferson so I would be more than ecstatic to see him go. I hate the fact that he can't play defense so Millsap was constantly in foul trouble to make up for Jefferson's inadequecies, and I especially hate the fact that he always takes a 20 ft jumper with 15 seconds on the shot clock at the 4 minute mark in the 4th quarter, regardless of what else was available. Jefferosn will always be the best, most efficient player on a bottom seed playoff team (of worse). He scores a lot because he shoots a lot. He can't pass, and I would even say that he is worse than Boozer was on defense - Jefferson just happens to be a few inches taller so he gets a few more blocks. He is not the low post player the Jazz need. He was the player to tie us over until we could get someone better. I sincerely hope that this is Jefferson's last season in Utah.
 
It all depends on how he does this year with all the shooters in the perimeter IMO. If he's able to kick it out and Mo & Co. can hit those 3's - boy will we make a run at the West's #4 - #5 spots. If that happens and Favors can cover Jefferson defensively, I think we've got a pretty good team to take going forward with a developing Kanter coming in as our 3rd big.

Having said that, KOC will not be offering anything close to what he can get in the open market IMO. Quality big man always get overpaid (see Asik this last Summer). So unless we're getting a hometown discounted rate - I think KOC would probably let him walk.
 
PKM said:
My prediction, 6 months ago, that he would be allowed to expire..
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Doesn't work like that. His contract has to run out first. But yeah, would've been nice if we could've just said, "hey your expired" 6 months ago.
 
lowe is spot-on with his analysis: modest improvements in peripheral areas, but he's still the same core player, and that player isn't likely to take this or any team to the promised land.

i just wish he'd be correct more quietly so that maybe some other GM will forget all that and start believing he can transform al into something he's not.
 
Qman said:
Jefferson provides post scoring. If Burks, Hayward and Favors can fill the scoring roles then Jefferson is expendable and we can play Kanter and benefit from his improved defense and rebounding.
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true, but we have already seen that when jefferson was out for a few games after "i think it was he grandma that past away" i dont rememeber exactally though. but anywhooo... while he was out other players did pick up the slack, you just give his 30 touches to someone else and prodoction will happen.. i think we were like 3 wins and 1 loss without al last year. i think we could make it a season. plus we have brought in a bit more scoring talent during the off season. i dont belive we need jefferson as much as everyone else i guess. plus it would be nice to have some itimidation in the middle. i am not a fan of jefferson madador defense... sorry all, "i am done with my jefferson vent"
 
JGolds said:
true, but we have already seen that when jefferson was out for a few games after "i think it was he grandma that past away" i dont rememeber exactally though. but anywhooo... while he was out other players did pick up the slack, you just give his 30 touches to someone else and prodoction will happen.. i think we were like 3 wins and 1 loss without al last year. i think we could make it a season. plus we have brought in a bit more scoring talent during the off season. i dont belive we need jefferson as much as everyone else i guess. plus it would be nice to have some itimidation in the middle. i am not a fan of jefferson madador defense... sorry all, "i am done with my jefferson vent"
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it was actually 5-1.

those stats can be deceiving (sometimes the step-up phenomenon occurs, plus you have to account for strength of the opponent slate) but in this case, i think you're right about what happens when you redistribute al's touches. a possession that ends in an al attempt produced 1.04 points on average, which is the same as the team average. so from a purely mathematical standpoint, if you were take his 23 attempts (FGA + FTA*.44) and spread them out evenly, team offensive efficiency wouldn't change at all. if you took those 23 attempts and gave them to more efficient players, theoretically our efficiency would go up.
 
theNBAnerd said:
it was actually 5-1.

those stats can be deceiving (sometimes the step-up phenomenon occurs, plus you have to account for strength of the opponent slate) but in this case, i think you're right about what happens when you redistribute al's touches. a possession that ends in an al attempt produced 1.04 points on average, which is the same as the team average. so from a purely mathematical standpoint, if you were take his 23 attempts (FGA + FTA*.44) and spread them out evenly, team offensive efficiency wouldn't change at all. if you took those 23 attempts and gave them to more efficient players, theoretically our efficiency would go up.
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Oh and the only loss out of the 6 games without jefferson was a game that went into double overtime. (i was at that one). So if jose calderon doesn't hit a LONG 3 pointer with the defense in his face at the end of the game then the jazz went undefeated (6-0) without big al.
 
Using games won without a star to show his worth is deceiving at best. Its been shown forever that for a limited time (a few games) most teams do as well or better when a star player sits. Nerd called it the step-up phenomenon, it is real. In the long run, most teams fall back to reality after a bit of a "lets pull together" phase.
I think in the Jazz' case, however, once they got used to a new approach at getting the points they would lose with Al's loss, the team would be fine on O, and better on team D. Notice I say team D, because Al is actually pretty good at on his man D, which of course blind haters cant accept. If we replace him and Kanter or whoever can play post up D AND PnR D, then we have won that battle in all areas.
At some point the FO has to let him go for the best offer at the time. Holding out for too much might mean we lose him for nothing. It would be stupid to not get anything for him, when Im sure their is some poor, stupid sap (no pun intended) out there who will gladly pay us more than we know Al is worth at this point.
 
Scorpjazz said:
Using games won without a star to show his worth is deceiving at best. Its been shown forever that for a limited time (a few games) most teams do as well or better when a star player sits. Nerd called it the step-up phenomenon, it is real. In the long run, most teams fall back to reality after a bit of a "lets pull together" phase.
I think in the Jazz' case, however, once they got used to a new approach at getting the points they would lose with Al's loss, the team would be fine on O, and better on team D. Notice I say team D, because Al is actually pretty good at on his man D, which of course blind haters cant accept. If we replace him and Kanter or whoever can play post up D AND PnR D, then we have won that battle in all areas.
At some point the FO has to let him go for the best offer at the time. Holding out for too much might mean we lose him for nothing. It would be stupid to not get anything for him, when Im sure their is some poor, stupid sap (no pun intended) out there who will gladly pay us more than we know Al is worth at this point.
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But unless we can get draft picks or a young point guard prospect, I don't see the advantage to just letting him walk. I think we need to maintain a lot of flexibility.
 
theNBAnerd said:
it was actually 5-1.

those stats can be deceiving (sometimes the step-up phenomenon occurs, plus you have to account for strength of the opponent slate) but in this case, i think you're right about what happens when you redistribute al's touches. a possession that ends in an al attempt produced 1.04 points on average, which is the same as the team average. so from a purely mathematical standpoint, if you were take his 23 attempts (FGA + FTA*.44) and spread them out evenly, team offensive efficiency wouldn't change at all. if you took those 23 attempts and gave them to more efficient players, theoretically our efficiency would go up.
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Thanks for helping me with the stats... i was just trying from memory. i felt during those five games the jazz looked much more fluid though. i am not saying al isnt a scoring threat or that he hasnt gotten better on defense "since better was all he really could get lol" but i think the jazz will defintally progress alot quicker as a team when he is gone. i think al was a quick fix to fill a hole. he is like the duck tap used to stop a pipe from leaking untill we can get a real plumber in to fix it. so i do think al is vvaluable and that he brings alot to any team he is on. but he isnt our fix.
 
JAG said:
I dislike Jefferson so I would be more than ecstatic to see him go. I hate the fact that he can't play defense so Millsap was constantly in foul trouble to make up for Jefferson's inadequecies, and I especially hate the fact that he always takes a 20 ft jumper with 15 seconds on the shot clock at the 4 minute mark in the 4th quarter, regardless of what else was available. Jefferosn will always be the best, most efficient player on a bottom seed playoff team (of worse). He scores a lot because he shoots a lot. He can't pass, and I would even say that he is worse than Boozer was on defense - Jefferson just happens to be a few inches taller so he gets a few more blocks. He is not the low post player the Jazz need. He was the player to tie us over until we could get someone better. I sincerely hope that this is Jefferson's last season in Utah.
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I agree with everything except what is in bold print. There is no way Boozer is a better defender. They are the same when it comes pick'n roll defense, and Boozer gets dominated in one on one in post play. Boozer has the athletic ability to play good one on one and pick'n roll defense but doesn't even care. I do feel Al try's at times.
 
theNBAnerd said:
it was actually 5-1.

those stats can be deceiving (sometimes the step-up phenomenon occurs, plus you have to account for strength of the opponent slate) but in this case, i think you're right about what happens when you redistribute al's touches. a possession that ends in an al attempt produced 1.04 points on average, which is the same as the team average. so from a purely mathematical standpoint, if you were take his 23 attempts (FGA + FTA*.44) and spread them out evenly, team offensive efficiency wouldn't change at all. if you took those 23 attempts and gave them to more efficient players, theoretically our efficiency would go up.
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and this is offense we are talking about.. his biggest strength

and what if we include his defense in conversation? yep, black hole
 
boozer's help D was better, believe it or not.

but that's moot. my thing on the al debate is the same - the team efficiency when we funnel the offense through al is basically right in line with the AVERAGE, and defensively they actually improve when al sits down. so al basically gives us very little, except for blocking the progress of young lotto picks.
 
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