Predict the Rudy Gobert trade

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think the people who expect us to trade Rudy and still be a competitive playoff team next season are in for a very rude awakening.

I think we are a play in team either way. Joe Ingles is an enormous loss... we have no prospects coming up other than JB who didn't get enough meaningful time. Bogey & Mike are on the backside of their careers... hurts their trade value and their on-court value if we just keep em.

Depending on the return... a Rudy trade is more likely to push us below the play in than it is to keep us in the top 6.

 

[LoPo]

I think we are a play in team either way. Joe Ingles is an enormous loss... we have no prospects coming up other than JB who didn't get enough meaningful time. Bogey & Mike are on the backside of their careers... hurts their trade value and their on-court value if we just keep em.

Depending on the return... a Rudy trade is more likely to push us below the play in than it is to keep us in the top 6.

I agree with this assessment. Based off the decline of Mike and the loss of Joe and a coaching change, we were headed towards more difficult times in 2022-23 anyway.

We desperately need youth to push us over the hump in tough stretches of games and within games.

I think we fight for the playoffs either way.

 

[NUMBERICA]

I agree with this assessment. Based off the decline of Mike and the loss of Joe and a coaching change, we were headed towards more difficult times in 2022-23 anyway.

We desperately need youth to push us over the hump in tough stretches of games and within games.

I think we fight for the playoffs either way.

… then what is the point? By anyone’s assessment, the Jazz are likely to get worse every year until they hit on a pick.

 

[Elizah Huge]

… then what is the point? By anyone’s assessment, the Jazz are likely to get worse every year until they hit on a pick.

The point is trading Rudy likely gets us back in the lottery vs keeping him and being a play-in team.

 

[Eminence]

No idea what it'll be, but based off all we've been hearing I'm prepared to be quite disappointed and for the team to be a play-in squad at best for the foreseeable future

 

[LoPo]

… then what is the point? By anyone’s assessment, the Jazz are likely to get worse every year until they hit on a pick.

The point for me is to have a brighter future. Have Don and get a few younger guys who still have upside. Hope that they create a good team atmosphere.

Memphis is a team that kind of came out of nowhere through youth and great coaching. That could end up being us.

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[Handlogten's Heros]

… then what is the point? By anyone’s assessment, the Jazz are likely to get worse every year until they hit on a pick.

The point is trading Rudy likely gets us back in the lottery vs keeping him and being a play-in team.

If that is the case will Donovan be happy and want to stick around beyond next year? If not what is the point of keeping Don and getting the 9/10th pick instead of getting a top 5 pick and giving yourself a chance at getting Wemby? Also cash in on Donovan's value now which reduces risk of him becoming a damaged asset?

The Rudy trade means you become Wizards West, which is fine if Donovan will allow you 2-3 years to retool. Donovan is extension eligible next year and if he refuses an extension you are playing with fire and backing yourself into a corner. Trade him now and you punt that decision to whatever team acquires him and you will have more bidders than just his preferred list.

I just think it is so clear what we should do... (I know, I know Ryan doesn't want to do it... doesn't mean its not the obvious right path).

 

[LoPo]

If that is the case will Donovan be happy and want to stick around beyond next year? If not what is the point of keeping Don and getting the 9/10th pick instead of getting a top 5 pick and giving yourself a chance at getting Wemby? Also cash in on Donovan's value now which reduces risk of him becoming a damaged asset?

The Rudy trade means you become Wizards West, which is fine if Donovan will allow you 2-3 years to retool. Donovan is extension eligible next year and if he refuses an extension you are playing with fire and backing yourself into a corner. Trade him now and you punt that decision to whatever team acquires him and you will have more bidders than just his preferred list.

I just think it is so clear what we should do... (I know, I know Ryan doesn't want to do it... doesn't mean its not the obvious right path).

I understand the fear, but why not try?

It's important we get young guys on long term deals for Rudy. Guys like OG, Williams, Trent Jr, Collins, etc. Build something with them and Don.

If Don bitches out in a year, we still have youth to build around with Don's assets. Going all scorched earth and getting picks sucks. We suck at drafting at the top of the draft.

Once you lose a winning culture, it's damn hard to get it back.

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[homeytennis]

I've got a great idea: Trade Gobert for Favors straight up.

 

[RandyForRubio]

If you trade Rudy you might as well trade Mitchell too. He’s not going to stay if we’re not good, and it seems unlikely we’d be good without Rudy.

Mitchell won’t be the top player on a top team until he starts defending, and he doesn’t seem like he wants to do that. I’d blow it up, personally.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I understand the fear, but why not try?

It's important we get young guys on long term deals for Rudy. Guys like OG, Williams, Trent Jr, Collins, etc. Build something with them and Don.

If Don bitches out in a year, we still have youth to build around with Don's assets. Going all scorched earth and getting picks sucks. We suck at drafting at the top of the draft.

Once you lose a winning culture, it's damn hard to get it back.

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Ainge does not suck at drafting at the top at all. The winning culture is gone already. The goal of the team has shifted from "win a title" to "keep Donovan happy".

The reason you do it now is Donovan ends up having more value if you can offer him to 29 teams. Wait a year and he starts to do the "go ahead and trade for me but I'll only sign an extension with team X". Or we suck and all those guys we acquired and Donovan lose trade value. OG or Williams stagnate or lose more time to injury and their value declines. All theoretical but plausible.

Say Collins or OG or whatever we get has us in the play in but not awful... we continue pushing forward adding the 10/11th pick or whatever next year... say Don doesn't even ask out... what hope is there that it gets good enough we feel comfortable letting it ride another year? Now Don's on a 1 year deal? What kind of success do we need to have for him to re-sign...

The further you go the more you get sucked into the treadmill of mediocrity and tanking isn't fun but the treadmill of mediocrity is pure misery. All those assets you had have now depreciated and the thought of tanking after being a late lotto team for 2-3 years seems unbearable. So you flip a few picks or players for vets... hope the supermax is enough to keep Donovan... the vets and supermax Don end up getting you very close to the playoffs... this is how the Kings become the Kangs.

Scorched Earth now or in 12-18 months? Difference is now you have a bunch of **** you can sell off... you don't know what you have in 12-18 months and all assets are depreciable by nature since they have a definitive expiration date on their contracts.

You don't waste 2+ years chasing a dumb goal... and you free up the organization to pursue the worthwhile goal without limiting constraints.

 

[LoPo]

Ainge does not suck at drafting at the top at all. The winning culture is gone already. The goal of the team has shifted from "win a title" to "keep Donovan happy".

The reason you do it now is Donovan ends up having more value if you can offer him to 29 teams. Wait a year and he starts to do the "go ahead and trade for me but I'll only sign an extension with team X". Or we suck and all those guys we acquired and Donovan lose trade value. OG or Williams stagnate or lose more time to injury and their value declines. All theoretical but plausible.

Say Collins or OG or whatever we get has us in the play in but not awful... we continue pushing forward adding the 10/11th pick or whatever next year... say Don doesn't even ask out... what hope is there that it gets good enough we feel comfortable letting it ride another year? Now Don's on a 1 year deal? What kind of success do we need to have for him to re-sign...

The further you go the more you get sucked into the treadmill of mediocrity and tanking isn't fun but the treadmill of mediocrity is pure misery. All those assets you had have now depreciated and the thought of tanking after being a late lotto team for 2-3 years seems unbearable. So you flip a few picks or players for vets... hope the supermax is enough to keep Donovan... the vets and supermax Don end up getting you very close to the playoffs... this is how the Kings become the Kangs.

Scorched Earth now or in 12-18 months? Difference is now you have a bunch of **** you can sell off... you don't know what you have in 12-18 months and all assets are depreciable by nature since they have a definitive expiration date on their contracts.

You don't waste 2+ years chasing a dumb goal... and you free up the organization to pursue the worthwhile goal without limiting constraints.

You are making so many assumptions based off of negative feelings. We can just agree to disagree.

The front office agrees with me though. As long as Don wants to be here, you build around him.

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