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Real GM: the case for Dante Exum

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Interesting article posted in RealGM about Exum's potential and the Jazz. We are getting some love:

An ankle injury cut short Dante Exum’s stint in Summer League before it ever really got a chance to get going, as the second-year Utah Jazz guard rolled his ankle in the final minutes of their first game and he was held out as a precautionary measure for the rest of the summer. The result was that fans didn’t get much of a chance to see how Exum would look against inferior competition after an up-and-down rookie season that saw him take a starting spot from fellow lottery pick Trey Burke but post some fairly meager offensive statistics that have many down on his overall potential.

The numbers explain the biggest knock on Exum’s game as a rookie - that he wasn’t very aggressive and he spent most of his time standing in the corner and not making much of an impact on the offensive side of the ball. And while he wasn’t very effective individually, the more important part was that he did a good job of playing his role on a Jazz team that was very effective with him on the floor. You have to look at young players' production within the context of the team around them and from that perspective there’s nothing really to worry about when it comes to Exum. He still shows all the signs of becoming a really good player in the NBA for a long time to come.

Most rookies who get significant playing time right away have the luxury of playing on a bad team going nowhere that can afford to let them play through their mistakes. When Exum and Rudy Gobert were inserted into the starting line-up in January, the Jazz suddenly became one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and a threat to any team in the league on a nightly basis. After a very slow start to the season, they managed to almost get back to .500 and finish the year with a 38-44 record. They look poised to be a real threat to jump into the playoff picture in the Western Conference this season.

Gobert got most of the credit for Utah’s defensive surge but Exum played a significant role as well. It starts with his length and athleticism - at 6’6 195 with a 6’9 wingspan, he combines exceptional quickness with one of the longest frames in the league at his position. With two of the best interior defenders in the league playing behind him in Gobert and Derrick Favors, Exum could extend out and use his length to pressure opposing PG’s, the vast majority of whom were giving up a substantial number of inches. It’s just very hard to shoot over the top of a super-sized PG like Exum on the perimeter and there wasn’t much space to operate behind him either.

As a franchise, the Jazz have made a killing by drafting to a physical prototype. They are bigger, longer and faster than their opponents at almost every position and the two guys in their young core who struggled the most on defense - Trey Burke and Enes Kanter - were the only two who don’t fit that mold. With Exum (6’6), Alec Burks (6’6), Rodney Hood (6’8), Gordon Hayward (6’8), Trey Lyles (6’10), Derrick Favors (6’11) and Rudy Gobert (7’1), they can overwhelm teams with length.

Going into next season, Exum should be one of the biggest beneficiaries of Burks return to health after the SG missed most of the last season with a shoulder injury. Playing on a starting unit with Favors, Gobert and Joe Ingles, there wasn’t a lot of room on the floor to operate and Exum was forced to be a spot-up shooter, which was not the strength of his game coming into the league. In that regard, his 31% shooting percentage from 3 on 3 attempts a game was encouraging, as the perimeter jumper was the one real question mark in his scouting report.

Exum really made a name for himself at the U19 world championships in 2013, where he carried Australia to the semifinals as a do-everything 6’6 combo guard. He hasn’t gotten a chance to go up against the best players his own age since. A year ago, he was playing high school basketball in Australia, which is about the farthest possible jump from NBA competition as can be imagined. The lifestyle transition from being a relatively anonymous high schooler half the world away is difficult enough before you even get into having to face the best players in the world on a nightly basis at the toughest position in the league. There are no nights off for PG’s in the Western Conference.

From a developmental perspective, it would have made a lot of sense for Utah to let him spend most of the season learning in the D-League or watching from the bench, letting him get accustomed to life in the US before throwing him to the wolves in the NBA. However, for as limited as he was on offense, the Jazz were still better off with him on the floor. With Hayward playing with the ball in his hands for most of the game, they didn’t need Exum to be an offensive initiator.

In his brief stint in Summer League, he showed what he could do when playing with more aggressiveness. Matched up primarily against Marcus Smart, he put on a show in what was (to be fair) a home game in Salt Lake City, with 20 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists. The biggest difference was the extra 10 pounds of muscle he added in the offseason, which allowed him to play with more confidence when he attacked the lane and survive more punishment around the basket. He’s a good ball-handler with good floor vision and he’s extremely fast so it’s difficult to stay in front of him when he has his mind made up to attack the rim.

As a rookie, he was the youngest starter at his position in the league and he was really scrawny so it was easy for older and stronger players to push him out on the perimeter. As he adds more weight on his frame, not only will he have an easier time drawing fouls but he should also be able to post up smaller PG’s and take them on the block. The more he develops physically the better he should become and he just turned 20 years old.

Even as a second-year player, the Jazz won’t need Exum to be a great offensive player. Burks and Hayward will shoulder most of the load on offense and they will win games with their defense and getting out in transition after forcing bad shots or turning the other team over. All he needs to do is continue to improve and play within himself and play off their more experienced players until he’s ready to grow into a bigger role.

What makes Utah so exciting going forward is all their young players will be able to grow together and develop into a unit better than the sum of its parts. They have eight first round picks on their roster under the age of 25 and they can all play. They can afford to bring along their 20-year old point guard slowly, especially when he’s such an outlier at his position in terms of physical tools. I’ll take tools over stats with young players every time and if Dante Exum ever figures it all out, the Jazz are going to be a special basketball team.
 
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An ankle injury cut short Dante Exum’s stint in Summer League before it ever really got a chance to get going, as the second-year Utah Jazz guard rolled his ankle in the final minutes of their first game and he was held out as a precautionary measure for the rest of the summer. The result was that fans didn’t get much of a chance to see how Exum would look against inferior competition after an up-and-down rookie season that saw him take a starting spot from fellow lottery pick Trey Burke but post some fairly meager offensive statistics that have many down on his overall potential.

106 words in two sentences. Hurt my eyes.
 
Me likely this:
As a franchise, the Jazz have made a killing by drafting to a physical prototype. They are bigger, longer and faster than their opponents at almost every position
 
I really wanted to see Dante play again at Vegas, especially against the Fakers. It would've been a great matchup between Dante and D'Angelo today. Btw LeBron was over at the Cavs game in the COX pavilion. He made an awesome 3pt shot when he was still sitting in one of the VIP bench chairs during halftime.
 
Good article, thanks for sharing. Disappointed that Exum's summer ended as early as it did, but excited from the little that I saw from him. Also excited to see how he performs/progresses throughout the upcoming season as I view him (as well as Hood, to a somewhat lesser extent) as the determining factor(s) in how far this team goes in the future. Burks, Hayward, Favors, & Gobert have all established that they can contribute (to varying degrees) to a playoff caliber team (although I still have some concerns regarding fit with Burks). While those four (along with a reasonable supporting cast) should assure that we are playoff regulars, it will likely be the development of Exum/Hood that dictates whether or not we become legitimate championship contenders.

This isn't intended to mean that either Exum or Hood is more important to the future success of this franchise than any of Hayward, Favors, or Gobert, just that they are still unproven. Last year showed that, regardless of how his offense develops, Exum is going to be a great to elite defender with (likely at least) average to above average vision & shooting, while Hood proved that injuries are likely the only reason that he won't be a starting caliber player (capable of scoring 18+ PPG along with above average to good defense) throughout the duration of his career.

Barring injuries, we appear to have 3/5 of a championship caliber starting lineup already in place, along with a (potentially) championship caliber 6th man. The quality of players that fill out the rest of the starting lineup, plus the additional rotational players (Lyles, Pleiss, Burke, etc) is what will (or won't) propel us from playoff (& possibly WCF) regulars to legitimate championship contenders. With a great young core in place, along with additional assets (future draft picks/cap space), the FO is in a position in which it can sit back, allow it's foundation to develop, & add (or subtract/condense) players/assets once it knows exactly what it has.

As a small market team, DL & CO understood that (young, talented, cost-controlled) asset accumulation was the only way to turn this team into a consistent contender. Regardless of how our unproven players (Exum, Hood, Lyles, Burke, Pleiss, etc) develop, this franchise has maintained the flexibility to adjust accordingly in order to finally win an NBA Championship. Now, the only question left to answer is whether or not those final pieces are already on the roster or if they still need to be acquired. This upcoming season should begin to reveal the answer to that question.
 
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Good article, thanks for sharing. Disappointed that Exum's summer ended as early as it did, but excited from the little that I saw from him. Also excited to see how he performs/progresses throughout the upcoming season as I view him (as well as Hood, to a somewhat lesser extent) as the determining factor(s) in how far this team goes in the future. Burks, Hayward, Favors, & Gobert have all established that they can contribute (to varying degrees) to a playoff caliber team (although I still have some concerns regarding fit with Burks). While those four (along with a reasonable supporting cast) should assure that we are playoff regulars, it will likely be the development of Exum/Hood that dictates whether or not we become legitimate championship contenders.

This isn't intended to mean that either Exum or Hood is more important to the future success of this franchise than any of Hayward, Favors, or Gobert, just that they are still unproven. Last year showed that, regardless of how his offense develops, Exum is going to be a great to elite defender with (likely at least) average to above average vision & shooting, while Hood proved that injuries are likely the only reason that he won't be a starting caliber player (capable of scoring 18+ PPG along with above average to good defense) throughout the duration of his career.

Barring injuries, we appear to have 3/5 of a championship caliber starting lineup already in place, along with a (potentially) championship caliber 6th man. The quality of players that fill out the rest of the starting lineup, plus the additional rotational players (Lyles, Pleiss, Burke, etc) is what will (or won't) propel us from playoff (& possibly WCF) regulars to legitimate championship contenders. With a great young core in place, along with additional assets (future draft picks/cap space), the FO is in a position in which it can sit back, allow it's foundation to develop, & add (or subtract/condense) players/assets once it knows exactly what it has.

As a small market team, DL & CO understood that (young, talented, cost-controlled) asset accumulation was the only way to turn this team into a consistent contender. Regardless of how our unproven players (Exum, Hood, Lyles, Burke, Pleiss, etc) develop, this franchise has maintained the flexibility to adjust accordingly in order to finally win an NBA Championship. Now, the only question left to answer is whether or not those final pieces are already on the roster or if they still need to be acquired. This upcoming season should begin to reveal the answer to that question.

Great post, KM.

I'm still of the belief that three years from now, Exum will be undoubtedly the best player on the roster - above Gobert, Hayward, Favors, and Hood. He has all of the physical attributes to be successful in the NBA at what he was successful at in the past, and he's already made substantial progress on what was identified as his pre-draft weaknesses (outside shooting and defense.)

While I sincerely hope that both Favors and Hayward stick around over the next decade - and that they're likely essential for a championship - my sense is that Gobert, Exum and Hood are going to make up the 'big three.' Gobert and Exum both have the potential to be superstars, and if not are likely good bets for multiple-time All Star appearances.
 
Agreed that Exum has the most potential on this roster. As great as Gobert is defensively, he will likely always be somewhat limited offensively. Exum, however, has the potential to be great on both sides of the ball. With his combination of size, length, speed, & athleticism, to go along with great court vision, he has the potential to be (one of, if not) the most affective 2-way player(s) at his position. Whether that happens or not will likely be determined by his shooting ability & on-court approach/demeanor. He is still extremely raw, but the tools are there for him to become an unselfish Russell Westbrook (which is a potential top 5-10 player in the NBA). Luckily for us, he also seems to have the character/work-ethic/dedication/etc to reach (or at least approach) that potential.

As far as our core moving forward, I agree that Exum, Hood, & Gobert are all essentially locks to remain here long-term, with Favors remaining if the FO decides that he is the right fit alongside Gobert & worth the contract that he will likely require when his current one expires in 3 years. If any of our current core players leave in the near future, the most likely to do so is probably Hayward. With his ability to opt-out in 2 years & the emergence of Hood, I could see the FO either allowing him to walk (in 2 years) if they feel that his next contract will outweigh his eventual production or trading him (in 1/2-1+1/2 years) if they believe that they will not be competitive quickly enough in order to retain him at a reasonable deal & don't want to risk losing such a valuable asset for nothing. Out of the 2 scenarios, imo trading him is more likely, but I'd be surprised if they don't try to keep the entire core (including Hayward) together long-term. By drafting Lyles (who's most likely role on this team is as a super reserve/rotational player), imo the FO showed it's faith in our current core by not attempting to upgrade any of it's current members & instead attempting to add to it.
 
Great post, KM.

I'm still of the belief that three years from now, Exum will be undoubtedly the best player on the roster - above Gobert, Hayward, Favors, and Hood. He has all of the physical attributes to be successful in the NBA at what he was successful at in the past, and he's already made substantial progress on what was identified as his pre-draft weaknesses (outside shooting and defense.)

While I sincerely hope that both Favors and Hayward stick around over the next decade - and that they're likely essential for a championship - my sense is that Gobert, Exum and Hood are going to make up the 'big three.' Gobert and Exum both have the potential to be superstars, and if not are likely good bets for multiple-time All Star appearances.

Man, I hope Exum is the best on the roster in a few years. This team will be seriously good if that is the case. Hayward is a good player, but as pretty much everyone knows, he is a number 2 option, and Gobert will be a superstar defensively. Unless Favors or Hayward has a hidden "next step" in them, they will not be leading this team to a championship without some help. I sure hope Exum turns out to be great offensively, and keeps his defense up.

I think Hayward and Favors have potential to be all stars a couple times in their careers, but I agree with you that Gobert and Exum are the ones that have superstar potential.
 
I am slurping on all KINDS of kool-aid right now.

2017 NBA champs. The SLC parade gon' be bonkers. Totally down with letting a drunk dude tattoo a Jazz-note on my ***.
 
Man, I hope Exum is the best on the roster in a few years. This team will be seriously good if that is the case. Hayward is a good player, but as pretty much everyone knows, he is a number 2 option, and Gobert will be a superstar defensively. Unless Favors or Hayward has a hidden "next step" in them, they will not be leading this team to a championship without some help. I sure hope Exum turns out to be great offensively, and keeps his defense up.

I think Hayward and Favors have potential to be all stars a couple times in their careers, but I agree with you that Gobert and Exum are the ones that have superstar potential.

Favors can take the 'next step' so long as he can be enabled by good point-guard play, IMO. He'll never be Tim Duncan on offense-- but he could easily average 20ppg with a top-shelf PG IMO.

And trust me, we don't need either Hayward nor Favors to take another step. They're both already starters on championship teams. Hell, 2nd-year Rudy is a starter on a championship team as well.

If we can just focus on elevating the play of Exum, Burks, Hood, and Burke-- that'll address our offensive woes, and we're looking at home-coort advantage going into the playoffs. That's not an exaggeration.
 
How you know that we're destined for greatness:

When our biggest weakness on this roster right now is PG-play-- which is a) the easiest positional need to address via FA; b) we have, at worst, a solid back-up in Trey-- and an incredibly promising starter in Dante; c) players in Hood, Hayward, and Burks who all have considerable ease running point for minutes on end.
 
Injuries are quite honestly the only thing holding this team back from a ring-run over the next three years. Chemistry? Check. Coaching staff? Check. Lots of cap-room? Check. Youth and potential at every position? Check. All-NBA defense? Yup.

I want the Spurs in the WCF, and Lebron in the Finals.
 
If we can continue to draft well and get a good guy ever 3rd to 4th year, I think we could keep this thing rolling for a long time.
 
Favors can take the 'next step' so long as he can be enabled by good point-guard play, IMO. He'll never be Tim Duncan on offense-- but he could easily average 20ppg with a top-shelf PG IMO.

And trust me, we don't need either Hayward nor Favors to take another step. They're both already starters on championship teams. Hell, 2nd-year Rudy is a starter on a championship team as well.

If we can just focus on elevating the play of Exum, Burks, Hood, and Burke-- that'll address our offensive woes, and we're looking at home-coort advantage going into the playoffs. That's not an exaggeration.

I am totally on board with Hayward and Favors being awesome players, I think they are great. I was saying pretty much what you said when you said Favors will not be Duncan, and would add that Hayward is not going to be LeBron.

BUT... there is no reason Hayward and Favors can't make this team a contender to have an outside shot at the finals. They are awesome players. It would just be awesome if Exum and Gobert become at least as good or better than Hay and Fav. Then we will have something very special.
 
Injuries are quite honestly the only thing holding this team back from a ring-run over the next three years. Chemistry? Check. Coaching staff? Check. Lots of cap-room? Check. Youth and potential at every position? Check. All-NBA defense? Yup.

I want the Spurs in the WCF, and Lebron in the Finals.

This sounds great in theory and I feel like you're right but my mind tells me you're not. It tells me that playoff basketball is a whole 'nother animal and that if and when that time comes, that we have to win four games in a seven game series, we're going to find out if our guys are the types of guys who can hit big shots. Who can hit big free throws. Who can get a stop when we need one (or two, or three...) despite maybe not being matched up that well (see Golden State).

We took a clear step last year. I expect another one this year (I'm hoping for 44+ wins). But OKC is the poster child for having unGodly potential and they've only been to one Finals.

But we shall see. Exum is the key. If in three years time, he can be as good at his position as Hayward is now at the 3, I think we have a legitimate shot.

That said, my greatest fear is that Gobert just isn't playing in the right decade. That over the next decade, we'll see small ball get even smaller to the point that stretch 5's will the norm rather than an anomaly. Here's to hoping I'm wrong.
 
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