So, in evaluating the off season and projecting the improvements the Jazz have made I was wondering what the minutes distribution might look like and whether it would be better than last year and what reasons we may be better, areas where we will stay the same and where we may have regressed. I will focus on the top 10 players. The rest is scrubs minutes.
Last year Hayward played 36 minutes a game for 77 games and his stat 16.2 points 5.1 reb and 5.2 assists. I think the addition of Exum makes Hayward better by relieving pressure off him when Burke was out due to injury or rest. With out increased depth I would like to see his minutes go down to 32 minutes, but still expect 18 points 6 rebounds and 6.5 assists because we have better ball movement and shooters. I would be OK if he played 36 minutes but I like San Antonio's more even minutes distribution model long term.
I expect to see significant improvement from Alec Burks this year. The new style of play fits him and he is really developing. Last year he played 28 minutes per game for 78 games averaging 14 points 3.3 assists and 2.7 rebounds. This year I expect 32 minutes per game 16.5 points, 4 rebounds and 3.5 assists.
Favors averages 30 minutes per game for 73 games scoring 13 points 9 Rebs and 2.7 assists. With a new emphasis on pick and roll and the corner 3 I expect points and assists to improve. 15 points, 10 rebounds and 2.5 assists.
Kanter was coming off an injury last year and this is a contract year. When he first came He had the reputation of being coach able and a very hard worker. I think the tank hit him hard and expect him to come back with a vengeance. Last year Kanter played 80 games averaging 12.3 points, 7.5 rebounds and 1 assist in 26.7 minutes. This year I expect 15 points, 9 rebounds and 1 assist in 30 minutes per game.
Burke averaged 32 minutes in 70 games scoring 12.8 points with 3 rebounds and 5.7 assists. I expect about the same production here.
Last year Jefferson was the only player to play all 82 games and will be the most easily replaced. 10 points 2.7 rebounds and 1.6 assist in 27 minutes. Hood and or Novack will easily surpass these stats splitting 28 minutes per game. Hopefully Hood quickly forces Novack to scrub status. Their defense may not match Jefferson's veteran presence. Fortunately Jefferson was not exactly an all NBA defender. I expect a better plus minus overall.
Last year Marvin played 66 games averaging 25 minutes with 9 points 5 rebounds, and 1 assist. Booker will come in and get 6 points 8 rebounds and 1 assist in 18 minutes.
Perhaps our biggest improvement will be at back up point guard. Garrett played 71 games averaging 3.5 points 1.4 rebound and 1.7 assists in 15 minutes. Exum will average at least 10 points 5 assists and 4 rebounds in 22 minutes per game.
Last year Evans averaged 18 minutes per game for 66 games. Barring injury I do not see him getting these minutes. Gobert's improvement will take most of these minutes allowing Kanter or Favors more time at power forward.
I see the minutes distribution like this
Burke 32 Exum 16 Lucas Clark
Burks 32 Exum 6 Hayward 10
Hayward 20 Hood 18 Novack 10 Evans
Kanter 30 Booker 18 Thomas
Favors 30 Gobert 18
Overall I see the Jazz pushing for 500 but falling short. I have not looked at win loss yet pending all rosters being finished and the schedule coming out. Who knows maybe there could be even more. Excited for this season to get going.
