San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz - Mon. Feb 12th 7pm MST

[Siro]

Ya there is. The evidence is that my shot goes in more often when I'm confident than not.

That's not how evidence works. Otherwise anecdotes would be the entire basis of science.

 

[LifeOnaPlate]

DM struggles all game. Then at the end he gets a steal to a layup, hits a cold blooded jumper, he scores 8 of our last 9. That's what stars do. Did you see his passion? The polar opposite of ole Haywood who was indifferent at almost all times and would often shrink in clutch time.

Let's not rewrite history. Hayward had a number of game winning shots and clutch 4th quarters. But yeah, Mitchell just willed himself to perform down the stretch. We need one more stud, whether that's Rubio or someone else.

Hayward had a few cool clutch moments, but more often he seemed to fumble the ball, or go away from the play. Until last season, that is. In the playoffs he took a much larger role than ever, and made some really clutch plays. Remember wrestling that rebound away from Chris Paul and shouting "that's right mf'er!"? I thought to myself, wow, we have a mature and driven Hayward here! Made me want him to re-sign even more. But Mitchell is doing that from day one. Which is awesome.

9 from 28. people who said mitchell is not a chucker. There you go.

LOL awesome. The FG% alone doesn't indicate whether a player is chucking. The question is, are they taking shots in the offensive schemes? Are they playing within the sets? Taking smart shots? DM had a few that he forced, and didn't always make the right play. But he wasn't out there chucking, and he delivered when it mattered the most, when the pressure was most heavy. You should change your screen name. Who do you think you are, using the franchise name as a screen name while offering such weak takes? Consider this response a rep NEG!

Here's the undeniable proof. BOOOOM!

Why'd that foolish player keep wasting his fire on dunks? Throw it up from half court when you're on fire. Go for three.

 

[LifeOnaPlate]

Despite the shots not dropping on the night, DM
kept shooting and shot 9 from 28 on the night. He is obviously desperate to pinch the ROY award from Simmons, which resulted in his obviously blatant stats padding and chuckings. Is he playing for the team or playing for personal accolades?

Imagine if Exum is as selfish as mitchell and shot 9 from 28 on the night, he would have been lambasted on this forum.

For real, can we bring back negging just for this one poster? Terrible. Egregiously dumb view. Gotta be a troll trying to get a rise out of people. His sn's got three z's because he's putting us all to sleep with his inane takes.

 

[LifeOnaPlate]

Yes, I am a jazz fan, but I can't stand selfish stat padding chucker like Mitchell. Mitchell is obviously playing for the accolade of ROY right now, hence his blatant chuckings.

We need more unselfish players who play for the team like Ingles and Exum.

Trey Burke, don't you have NY practice to attend or something?

 

[Siro]

For real, can we bring back negging just for this one poster? Terrible. Egregiously dumb view. Gotta be a troll trying to get a rise out of people. His sn's got three z's because he's putting us all to sleep with his inane takes.

I think he's a troll.

 

[framer]

I think he's a troll.

Worse, I think he is a Simmons fan. There is no more insecure, shivering, miserable group of humanity than people who live in sheet-stained fear that Spida is going to steal Simmon's ROY award. Makes me want to cheer against Simmons, but that wouldn't be fair.

 

[LifeOnaPlate]

The great performances of Ingles, favors and Gobert is what won utah this game, not mitchell's poor shooting.
Most of the credit for our winning streak should goes to these guys.

DM jacked up 73 shots the last 3 games for an inefficient 77 points. He is a selfish chucker who wants to win ROY. If Ingles and Favors did not step up in the last few games, we would have lost a least half of those games.

It's not terribly efficient, it's slightly over 1 point per shot (and he could have averaged more PPS depending on what his FT #s were), but again, numbers don't exist in a vacuum. How many of these shots were buzzer heaves? End of shot clock desperation shots? Ill-advised out of the offense shots?

 

[LifeOnaPlate]

In mentioning that Jingles fouled Ginoldbe, why does it matter when the play should have been dead for being out of bounds. Quite a bit got missed in this game by a fairly shoddy officiating performance.

From the replay it looked like it was still inbounds.

 

[sahlensguy]

Much was said about getting in Pau's head at the time. Really this was probably the sparked the team to begin their comeback in the 4th. The team needed a wake up call and there it was. Straight up bitch ball right there.

 

[LifeOnaPlate]

How does confidence change the mechanics of the shot? Ingles shot something like 43% from the three. He worked all summer on his shot, and that increased his percentage a tiny bit. Has little to do with confidence, unless confidence is something that adds 2% to your shot, which you wouldn't be able to tell without looking at stats.

Sometimes player will hit a bunch in a row, other times they'll miss a bunch. As players are just human, they have poor natural understanding of statistics. So they attribute normal statistical distribution with being on or off on any particular night.

Now I might be wrong. But as far as I know, nobody has been able to provide good evidence for the hot hand. However, given how widespread belief in the hot hand is, you'd think it's been confirmed by data ten times over.

It'd be hard to do a solid study on this. Shooting doesn't occur in a vacuum. Stellar defense can prevent a hot hand from hot handing, for instance. How to measure that? The subjective experience of players provides the strongest evidence. When a player talks about being "in the zone." I know this is subjective evidence, and could be tainted by confirmation bias. But I'm inclined to credit their witness. I've had a hot hand in church ball on occasion, and it's the weirdest feeling.

 

[LifeOnaPlate]

Is there evidence of that, though? Aside from your feelings? That's what math and statistics is about. It's a simple enough question: does someone's likelihood of making the next shot increase when he has made a previous shot (or two previous shots, etc.)? And I'm with Siro--there's no evidence that it does.

Because this sort of straight-up simple model treats the game in an unnatural way. All it tells us is when we consider this limited amount of data we get this particular result. But what if we're missing important measurements? A hot hand could exist and other players could pick up on it, for instance, thus increasing their defensive intensity and making a greater impact on the next shot. But how could we measure that?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Why aren't people talking about the travel on the last play. Anderson picks up his dribble, pivots, and loses control of the ball and touches it again... it was never dislodged by another player... Royce's hands were up.

Sure Ingles pushed Manu, but the travel was fairly obvious and the reason I thought Ingles kinda stopped on the play.

 

[LifeOnaPlate]

Is there evidence of your God?

I actually think religion makes for a fruitful and interesting comparison here. We're not just dealing with empirical numbers, we're also dealing with pyschological states, and possibly even things we don't have a name for. (Religion has the numinous, and some athletes have reported Zen-like or numinous experiences while playing the game.) Refuting or proving the existence of God is not quite the same as refuting or proving the existence of the hot hand, granted, but the comparison is really interesting.

 

[fishonjazz]

That's not how evidence works. Otherwise anecdotes would be the entire basis of science.

It’s evidence for me, not ya’ll.

 

[JAZZGASM]

Why aren't people talking about the travel on the last play. Anderson picks up his dribble, pivots, and loses control of the ball and touches it again... it was never dislodged by another player... Royce's hands were up.

Sure Ingles pushed Manu, but the travel was fairly obvious and the reason I thought Ingles kinda stopped on the play.

In the NBA, when a player fumbles the ball, they are allowed to recover it, even if not touched by another player. If they fumble and haven't used their pivot foot, they can still dribble. In this case, since Anderson had used his pivot foot, upon picking up the ball he needed to shoot or pass, which he did. It was not a travel.

The Jazz got the benefit of more calls in the last two minutes. Odds of that happening may be worse than the Spurs losing a game when they are up 13 points in the fourth quarter.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

In the NBA, when a player fumbles the ball, they are allowed to recover it, even if not touched by another player. If they fumble and haven't used their pivot foot, they can still dribble. In this case, since Anderson had used his pivot foot, upon picking up the ball he needed to shoot or pass, which he did. It was not a travel.

The Jazz got the benefit of more calls in the last two minutes. Odds of that happening may be worse than the Spurs losing a game when they are up 13 points in the fourth quarter.

My bad... seems there is some rule inconsistency there though... I mean if the guy has control and loses control without a defender deflecting the ball that seems like it should be a turnover. Like a self pass.

 

[JAZZGASM]

My bad... seems there is some rule inconsistency there though... I mean if the guy has control and loses control without a defender deflecting the ball that seems like it should be a turnover. Like a self pass.

You can also pass it to yourself (you just can't catch it).

 

[gregbroncs]

Despite the shots not dropping on the night, DM
kept shooting and shot 9 from 28 on the night. He is obviously desperate to pinch the ROY award from Simmons, which resulted in his obviously blatant stats padding and chuckings. Is he playing for the team or playing for personal accolades?

Imagine if Exum is as selfish as mitchell and shot 9 from 28 on the night, he would have been lambasted on this forum.

He scored a bunch of critical points in the 4th quarter. GTFO your just a hater.

 

[LifeOnaPlate]

The Jazz got the benefit of more calls in the last two minutes. Odds of that happening may be worse than the Spurs losing a game when they are up 13 points in the fourth quarter.

The Last 2 Minute Report is interesting. At 1:18 they say they missed call on a moving screen by Favors:

http://official.nba.com/last-two-minute-report/?gameNo=0021700845&eventNum=1112

On that play, DM missed the shot, and Ginobli hooked Favs on the rebound, which they identify as another missed call.

http://official.nba.com/last-two-minute-report/?gameNo=0021700845&eventNum=1114

At :47 they say it should have been a foul call against Favors, but that a correct call was made that Ingles also fouled Anderson. Am I reading the L2MR right?

http://official.nba.com/last-two-minute-report/?gameNo=0021700845&eventNum=1119

I disagree with the Ingles "foul." Looks like Ingles got a clean block there. Also, they note that Anderson traveled on that play before the Favors foul, though they don't offer a ruling on whether it was an incorrect non-call, saying "enhahnced video" is what allowed them to see the violation.

They say Ginobli traveled on that last possession with :14 to go, but again they don't say if it was a correct no-call or what. Seems like they imply they needed enhanced video to detect the travel, so are they saying it was fine not to call it? Funny enough, a bunch of people in the arena noticed and loudly protested:

http://official.nba.com/last-two-minute-report/?gameNo=0021700845&eventNum=1124

They say Anderson did not step out of bounds on that last play as far as they can tell from available cameras angles. That is, they say this is a correct no call, only because they can't see definitive proof otherwise. Camera angles don't allow us to see whether he stepped out or not, but Ingles seems to signal to the ref that he saw him step out.

And finally, they noticed Ingles's little shove on Manu at the end there: "[Review] shows Ingles initiates contact to Ginobili's back, extending his arms and dislodging him as he retrieves the loose ball. Incorrect no call."

http://official.nba.com/last-two-minute-report/?gameNo=0021700845&eventNum=1125

If the travel violations should have been called, that means they disadvantaged the Jazz three times and the Spurs three times (though a foul was called immediately after a missed foul, anyway).

 

[gregbroncs]

You can also pass it to yourself (you just can't catch it).

Sure you can, as long as your don't move your feet or let the ball hit the ground.