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Schedule for the tank

UGLI baby said:
Your playoff premise is wrong.

The longer a team is in playoff contention, the less likely they are to tank. There are teams tanking from the get go (philly) but the fact that teams like the bobcats and Wizards could be in playoff contention late in the season is a good thing. The more wide open the East is, the better. Once ownership knows that playoffs (and the money that comes with it) are out of the question, it's easier for them to sign off on tanking.


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Just the opposite, I believe, in the EC.

You could make a case that four (and maybe five) non-playoff teams in the WC may all have better records (at 38-44 wins) than the last two playoff teams in the EC. So earning a playoff spot in the East truly could be the difference between a pick at #10 with a chance to move up in the lottery, and a pick that is locked in at #15.

Toronto, which made their trade last season for Gay and played .500 ball the rest of the season, and Detroit, which added Smith and traded for Jennings, are my picks to replace Boston and Milwaukee in the playoffs. Guess you can say Charlotte upgraded a bit with Jefferson. But maybe he lifts that team from 21 to 30 wins. I guess Cleveland upgraded (if Bynum plays). None of the other EC teams made significant gains in free agency. I see Toronto and Detroit gaining separation early, causing the others to decide well in advance of the deadline to pursue a higher draft seeding.
 
Core4 said:
What hurts the Jazz, IMO, is that two lousy teams are going to make the EC playoffs. Last season, Milwaukee snuck in with only 38 wins! Boston won 41 as the 7th seed but we know that isn't happening this year. With the strength of the WC, MAKING the playoffs in the EC with 34-38 wins for a couple of teams could be the difference between ending up with the 15th/16th seed vs. the 10th-12th (and a chance at moving up in the lottery). There will be some desperate tanking late in the season to avoid making the playoffs.

So we better hope the Jazz really struggle. Otherwise, if they approach 30 wins as some have projected, there's a very good chance they end up behind all 7 of the EC non-playoff teams and Phoenix. Throw in a disappointing season for teams like Sacramento or Minnesota and you can make a case the Jazz may not even get a top-10 pick.
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Core4 said:
Just the opposite, I believe, in the EC.

You could make a case that four (and maybe five) non-playoff teams in the WC may all have better records (at 38-44 wins) than the last two playoff teams in the EC. So earning a playoff spot in the East truly could be the difference between a pick at #10 with a chance to move up in the lottery, and a pick that is locked in at #15.

Toronto, which made their trade last season for Gay and played .500 ball the rest of the season, and Detroit, which added Smith and traded for Jennings, are my picks to replace Boston and Milwaukee in the playoffs. Guess you can say Charlotte upgraded a bit with Jefferson. But maybe he lifts that team from 21 to 30 wins. I guess Cleveland upgraded (if Bynum plays). None of the other EC teams made significant gains in free agency. I see Toronto and Detroit gaining separation early, causing the others to decide well in advance of the deadline to pursue a higher draft seeding.
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You seem to just be saying random stuff.
 
Core4 said:
Sorry heyhey, Joebagadonuts is correct. The three worst teams last year were in the EC. Year before it was bottom two, with a tie for 3rd worst. Year before was 4 of 6. You have to go back to '09/10 to find a fairly even distribution for the bottom eight. And in all those seasons, the WC has been viewed as being stronger/deeper than the East.

Scan back through conference standings over the past 10 years and you'll see the last two EC playoff teams having losing records or barely at .500. By contrast, the WC routinely has the last couple of playoff teams at 46, 48, even 50 wins! There is simply no correlation between conference strength and where teams have finished in the lottery, despite what we have hoped would hold true by continuing to say "the worst teams in the EC will pay each other more times, thus they will win more games." It just hasn't happened.
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I'm not saying that the sixerx will have near the wins as utah, but if charlotte for example plays these teams an extra 10 games and plays the top ten teams say 6 fewer times that is a large schedule disparity.

When Eastern conference teams play one another one of them must win.
 
The point is.....

Joe Bagadonuts said:
what's your point?
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I think the point is a pretty good one: If the Jazz and an eastern conference team are "equally bad", the eastern team is likely to have a better record, having played an easier schedule. This would tend to give us a higher probability at a better lottery position.


The fact that if an eastern team could be so much worse than the Jazz that they lose more games than the Jazz is true but moot.
 
silesian said:
I think the point is a pretty good one: If the Jazz and an eastern conference team are "equally bad", the eastern team is likely to have a better record, having played an easier schedule. This would tend to give us a higher probability at a better lottery position.


The fact that if an eastern team could be so much worse than the Jazz that they lose more games than the Jazz is true but moot.
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Great summary/explanation
/thread
 
EC standing prediction:
6-atlanta
7-detroit
8-toronto
9-wizards (39-40 wins)

WC;
15-Phoenix
14-Utah(27 wins)

Jazz gonna get fifth worst record.
 
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