Should we go full rebuild?

[HermanG]

Do you know what's the commonality between the Bucks and the Nuggets? They both drafted their MVPs in the draft... and both drafted them way outside of the top 10. They didn't become great from the middle because of trading for Jonh Collins or Kelly Olynyk types... they became great because they picked MVPs in the draft... and then built around them. The hard part is the MVP part. A while ago I went back about 30 years in the past and looked at all the NBA champions in that timespan. I think only one or two didn't have an NBA MVP on their roster. If you have faith that we can get an MVP level player drafting in the middle.. then... sure... lets do it. I would always go for as high of a pick as possible... especially in drafts with clear generational talents.

Sure you need a top 5 player. Landing that guy comes down to luck either way. Either mid to late draft luck by picking the right guy, or lottery ball luck.

But you need a good team around him as well. Thats where more fails happen each year, as usually there arent 2 top 5 guys in the same team (KD-Steph Warriors excluded). So usually at least 4 of the top 5 fail to win every year.

Again, when you did all that research and formed your opinion I'm sure you also found at least 1 deep tank championship team.... right?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Surely if it’s the only way to do it you’d have a single example of it working out that way?

It isn't the only way to do it. Spurs def tanked for Duncan back in the day. It was a 1 year situational tank but it was def a tank job. Robinson was hurt but they made no effort to get him back on the court and didn't really try to win.

Lots of other teams have yielded benefits from tanking to various degrees. It is one route of many though and just like all the other routes... it will almost surely fail every time.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

It isn't the only way to do it. Spurs def tanked for Duncan back in the day. It was a 1 year situational tank but it was def a tank job. Robinson was hurt but they made no effort to get him back on the court and didn't really try to win.

Lots of other teams have yielded benefits from tanking to various degrees. It is one route of many though and just like all the other routes... it will almost surely fail every time.

Spurs are the example, but even that was not some egregious Presti level tank. They made a smart pivot after an injury and got incredibly lucky.

And then they sucked during a year with a generational prospect available and got really ****ing lucky again.

Neither of those are a full Presti though, which is what Thee seems to be in favor of.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Spurs are the example, but even that was not some egregious Presti level tank. They made a smart pivot after an injury and got incredibly lucky.

And then they sucked during a year with a generational prospect available and got really ****ing lucky again.

Neither of those are a full Presti though, which is what Thee seems to be in favor of.

One of my biggest what ifs that I'd like to see is what happens if Hinkie doesn't get replaced by the NBA or at very least what if they replaced him with someone good and not Colangelo?

Sixers had opportunities that went sideways so hard. Fultz (what if they take Tatum), Simmons, they drafted Mikal Bridges and traded him, blew assets on Tobias Harris and Jimmy and then opted to keep Tobias instead of Jimmy. Used cap space on Horford... then used assets to offload him. Still a fringe contender if Embiid ever had a healthy playoff run. If Kawhi doesn't hit that game winner what happens?

The Process Sixers had like 3-4 huge turning points that could have swung their way and went the other way hard. They also blew top picks on top of things but the point is to get the opportunities.

 

[stitches]

Sure you need a top 5 player. Landing that guy comes down to luck either way. Either mid to late draft luck by picking the right guy, or lottery ball luck.

But you need a good team around him as well. Thats where more fails happen each year, as usually there arent 2 top 5 guys in the same team (KD-Steph Warriors excluded). So usually at least 4 of the top 5 fail to win every year.

Again, when you did all that research and formed your opinion I'm sure you also found at least 1 deep tank championship team.... right?

I don't think a lot of teams in the history of the league have done the legit planned deep tank. I think most of what people consider tanking are teams just being BAD at what they are trying to do and then ending up with a tank-like outcome or half-tank(kinda like what we are doing now). The 3 deep tank teams I can think of are the Hinkie Sixers, and now twice the Presti Seattle/OKC. You can argue SAS did a planned tank for Duncan once Robinson got injured.... you can also argue they did it again for Wemby. The jury is still out on the OKC in the 2020s and the Wemby Spurs(both looking really good bets for the next 10 years BTW), but all the previous examples largely achieved what the tank intended - acquiring MVP level talent. Past that nothing is guaranteed. Duncan was the foundation of a dynasty. The early OKC team was super close to championship too and if their owner allowed them to keep their team who knows what could have happened. The Hinkie Sixers got Embiid out of their tank... and they got a lot of drama from the rest of their top picks... and you can argue it was still worth it and they have been legit contenders a few times in the last decade with tons of different supporting casts... with one thing in common - the MVP level talent.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Spurs are the example, but even that was not some egregious Presti level tank. They made a smart pivot after an injury and got incredibly lucky.

And then they sucked during a year with a generational prospect available and got really ****ing lucky again.

Neither of those are a full Presti though, which is what Thee seems to be in favor of.

Also I'd argue the Cavs don't win a title unless they land Kyrie (that was actually a pick they traded for) and the Wiggins pick that then could be used for Love. Did they tank or just suck? That's always the anti-tanker argument.

I don't know what the best path forward is right now. I'd want to know what trade opportunities with have with Lauri. I wouldn't move him just for the opportunity to suck. I'd need a great yield. If we have other opportunities I'd love to know what those are.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I don't think a lot of teams in the history of the league have done the legit planned deep tank. I think most of what people consider tanking are teams just being BAD at what they are trying to do and then ending up with a tank-like outcome or half-tank(kinda like what we are doing now). The 3 deep tank teams I can think of are the Hinkie Sixers, and now twice the Presti Seattle/OKC. You can argue SAS did a planned tank for Duncan once Robinson got injured.... you can also argue they did it again for Wemby. The jury is still out on the OKC in the 2020s and the Wemby Spurs(both looking really good bets for the next 10 years BTW), but all the previous examples largely achieved what the tank intended - acquiring MVP level talent. Past that nothing is guaranteed. Duncan was the foundation of a dynasty. The early OKC team was super close to championship too and if their owner allowed them to keep their team who knows what could have happened. The Hinkie Sixers got Embiid out of their tank... and they got a lot of drama from the rest of their top picks... and you can argue it was still worth it and they have been legit contenders a few times in the last decade.

And there are a lot of middle ground teams like Memphis. They definitely tore it down but had injury plagued years that got them JJJ and then jumped to #2 to get Ja. Obviously no title there yet.

GS benefitted from intentional losing but it was not process type tanking. It looked more like what we are doing now.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

Also I'd argue the Cavs don't win a title unless they land Kyrie (that was actually a pick they traded for) and the Wiggins pick that then could be used for Love. Did they tank or just suck? That's always the anti-tanker argument.

I don't know what the best path forward is right now. I'd want to know what trade opportunities with have with Lauri. I wouldn't move him just for the opportunity to suck. I'd need a great yield. If we have other opportunities I'd love to know what those are.

Well Cavs also needed the greatest player of all time to come back to the team, which helped. But yes, Kyrie was pivotal.

I'm not sure why Thee doesn't come and argue that Presti deserved to see his experiment through to the end. Or bring up modern OKC as an example (even if it doesn't quite work and they haven't won anything yet) and a few others. But I stand by saying that the plan he is suggesting has never actually worked, even if I understand the logic. And he should really reach across the aisle and admit that.

 

[stitches]

And there are a lot of middle ground teams like Memphis. They definitely tore it down but had injury plagued years that got them JJJ and then jumped to #2 to get Ja. Obviously no title there yet.

GS benefitted from intentional losing but it was not process type tanking. It looked more like what we are doing now.

Yeah... GS definitely did intentional losing, but IMO this was not a pre-planned thing. It's pretty much EXACTLY what we are doing now.

I think the Memphis thing was more a product of circumstance and luck than a planned tank... but yeah...

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Yeah... GS definitely did intentional losing, but IMO this was not a pre-planned thing. It's pretty much EXACTLY what we are doing now.

I think the Memphis thing was more a product of circumstance and luck than a planned tank... but yeah...

And I think there are very few examples of teams doing the process for a bunch of reasons. I also think teams losing intentionally are less brazen about it because they understand the PR is bad for everyone. It should give us pause though in moving to that "easy button" too fast. The business and competitive side of this is generally too much for most teams to stomach. Only the most confident GMs really end up trying this.

 

[stitches]

And I think there are very few examples of teams doing the process for a bunch of reasons. I also think teams losing intentionally are less brazen about it because they understand the PR is bad for everyone. It should give us pause though in moving to that "easy button" too fast. The business and competitive side of this is generally too much for most teams to stomach. Only the most confident GMs really end up trying this.

I mean look at what happened with Hinkie after the brazen and well planned tank. The league changed the rules for lottery because of him and then pushed ownership to oust him from the team. They didn't change them because they thought "the process" doesn't work. On the contrary - what they were worried about was that it will work too well and they will have epidemic of teams trying to do the same.

And that's part of the reason such an elaborate long-term tank hasn't happened much in the league. The league just doesn't have the stomach for it.

What people colloquially call a tanking nowadays is mostly teams being bad not by design, but by incompetence.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I mean look at what happened with Hinkie after the brazen and well planned tank. The league changed the rules for lottery because of him and then pushed ownership to oust him from the team. They didn't change them because they thought "the process" doesn't work. On the contrary - what they were worried about was that it will work too well and they will have epidemic of teams trying to do the same.

And that's part of the reason such an elaborate long-term tank hasn't happened much in the league. The league just doesn't have the stomach for it.

He needed to take a few PR courses and be a little more personable and do the thing all GMs do... lie.

Part of the reason I wanted him to see it out is I am curious how he finishes it off or how he operates in phase 2-3. Maybe he sucks or makes the wrong value play. I just want to see if/when he would have turned the corner. I don't know that he would have traded for Jimmy for example.