SLC Dunk - Digesting the reality of the Utah Jazz own 2024 first round pick

[Adam Bushman]

Coach Will Hardy has had to digest and re-adjust many times over his first two seasons at the helm for the Utah Jazz | Photo by Alex Goodlett/Getty Images

With just a couple weeks of regular season basketball left to play, the realities of Utah’s own 2024 first round pick are coming into focus

For many across the NBA, this time of year brings a lot of clarity. Championship teams seem to be sifted from the chaff, long-term pieces separated from commodities, and support staff throughout the organization are prized or despised.

The Jazz are no exception. Trades made at the deadline and significant playing time shifts have been driven by a search for clarity in some cases (e.g. Taylor Hendricks) and clarity achieved in others (e.g. Keyonte George).

But with each passing day, the area within the franchise that comes more into focus are the realities intertwined with Utah’s own 2024 first round pick. Let’s dive into those realities:

Utah is the likely 8th or 9th pick​

Upon entering the post All-Star stretch of the season, Utah was set to compete with the Houston Rockets, Atlanta Hawks, and Chicago Bulls. The rule of thumb seemed to be that finishing ahead of two would translate to the the Jazz losing their pick while finishing below two would ensure the Jazz keep the pick.

But only 3 wins since the break and surges by those teams has clarified two things: 1) the Jazz will keep their pick and 2) the remaining competition is with the Brooklyn Nets.

Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images
The Utah Jazz and Brooklyn Nets square off in New York

As of last night, Basketball Reference predicting BKN at 31.8 wins and UTA at 32.5, jockying for 8 or 9. While BKN won an overtime road game in Washington, UTA dropped a home matchup to San Antonio. The Jazz have one of the 5 most difficult remaining schedules while the Nets have one of the 10 easiest, per Tankathon.

Draft position is less valuable this year​

Most basketball fans have heard the anecdotal assessment of the upcoming draft: 1) there’s no consensus ranking and 2) few, if any, prospects are thought to have star potential.

If such subjectivity doesn’t do it for you, let’s derive some observations from 12 industry draft boards, such as ESPN, The Ringer, The Athletic, Global Scouting, and others:

• 11 players had at least one ranking in the top 5 across these boards’ latest version
• 24 players had at least one ranking in the lottery
• 47 players had at least one ranking in the first round

The point is there’s a lot of volatility in this draft. Teams may judge 5 players as being in a similar range. These boards indicate those 5 could find themselves picked by as many as 20 picks.

To summarize, competitive positioning in the upcoming draft is less valuable this year than in many previous, putting more pressure on teams at the top and boosting the probabilities for teams at the bottom.

Photo by Zach Beeker/NBAE via Getty Images
Derrick Favors communicating with new teammates as a member of the Thunder

Jazz still owe the pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder​

In the summer of 2021, the Utah Jazz traded Derrick Favors to the Oklahoma City Thunder in a salary dump maneuver that cost the franchise a future, protected first round pick. This draft is the start of owing that pick.

With Utah all but guaranteed to retain this selection, the protection rules carry over to next year. Said differently, if the Jazz are one of the 21 best teams next year, the 2025 pick will go to Oklahoma City. If not, meaning the Jazz had another brutal season, we keep the pick again. But, the protection carries over to the following year where in 2026 the Jazz would again have to be a bottom 8 team to keep the pick. Where they to, the obligation to the Thunder would expire.

Based off the reality of this year’s talent pool, ideally the pick would have conveyed this year. 2025 is a not ideal draft to give up the pick with the premiere top-end talent of Cooper Flagg and Ace Bailey. 2026 is also no good since the Jazz may lay claim to the best of their own, Cleveland’s first, and Minnesota’s first IF their pick is retained.

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Admittedly, these realities are in large part negative and detrimental to the franchise in varying degree. Probabilistically, their combination gives the team a relatively up-hill climb to deriving value this year and maximizing their value in upcoming drafts, especially considering the team would like to get back to competing in the West sooner than later.

For some, fandom is about holding on to the merry, optimistic views throughout the process. For readers who identify with this approach, we sincerely send our apologies. But we aim to shine a light in all corners and support the team no matter how dire the circumstances seem.

With that said, there are some silver linings, most notably in the fact the Jazz have another late first round pick and an early second. This trio of picks in a draft with so much variability will be very tempting for other teams in the association. If Utah is sold on a prospect, the nature of this draft is far more conducive to moving up, down, and around than normal. We’ll see how Danny Ainge plays it out.

For now, bask in the clarity and deploy the “rose-colored glasses” at your leisure.

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