Smartphones to replace computers soon

[SaltyDawg]

I am still curious as to what "soon" means. 400 million PCs sold worldwide in 2010 is not going away anytime in the next few years and if it did within just 2 or 3 years or so it would be an unprecedented product death in the history of technology back to the industrial revolution. Even the payphone is not completely dead, and it's death throes have been going on for maybe 15 years now.

Sorry for the edit, but here is some data:

https://itmanagement.earthweb.com/m...ales-Soaring-Amid-Wider-PC-Growth-Gartner.htm





Not sure you will see 30% growth year over year drop to nothing anytime "soon".

So what exactly is "soon"?

In about 4 years.

Also, don't let KEK BS you. When I first started this topic on the old board, I was clear that docks such as the ones in the first post are what would make it possible. I even included a link to a crappy one that was available at the time called a Redfly:
https://www.celiocorp.com/products/

So this whole "the dock is a laptop" is just bull, and I'm guilty of playing along.

Sent from my HTC Evo using Tapatalk.

 

[LogGrad98]

In about 4 years.

Also, don't let KEK BS you. When I first started this topic on the old board, I was clear that docks such as the ones in the first post are what would make it possible. I even included a link to a crappy one that was available at the time called a Redfly:
https://www.celiocorp.com/products/

So this whole "the dock is a laptop" is just bull, and I'm guilty of playing along.

Sent from my HTC Evo using Tapatalk.

So your standpoint is that within 4 years the 350-400 million units of PC's sold annually will drop to 0. 2015 sales of PC's will be nothing.

Really...

 

[LogGrad98]

https://www.informationweek.com/news/hardware/desktop/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=223800259

The United States is expected to see double-digit growth in PC shipments in three years of the five-year forecast: 8.5% this year, 13.7% in 2011, 12.1% in 2012, 10.4% in 2013, and 9.5% in 2014, IDC said. The U.S. and other mature markets are expected to see slower growth in PC shipments than emerging markets.

https://www.onlinesocialmedia.net/2...et-pc-in-2015-which-will-be-the-most-popular/

https://news.yahoo.com/s/mashable/2...les_will_eclipse_laptop_sales_by_2015_stats_1

https://www.forrester.com/rb/research

Looking at their projected laptop sales, Forester believes that they will keep growing too, only not to the extent of tablet PCs. They believe that the 26.4 million laptop sales of 2010 will continue to grow up to 38.9 million in 2015.

The numbers from Forrester are nevertheless impressive. The firm expects that tablet sales will grow from 10.3 million in 2010 to 44 million in 2015, eclipsing laptop sales by roughly 5 million units. Laptop sales will continue to grow from 26.4 million in 2010 to 38.9 million in 2015, however, while desktop PC sales will decline from 20.5 million in 2010 to 18.2 million in 2015.

[Both quotes above reflect the US market only.]

More info...

https://mcpmag.com/articles/2010/06/18/pc-sales-to-grow-20-percent-this-year.aspx

Forrester Research analysts, looking at the U.S. consumer PC market, also see some upward trends.

"Over the next five years, PC unit sales across all form factors will increase by 52%," stated Forrester analyst Sarah Rotman Epps, in a recent blog post. "In fact, desktops are the only type of PC whose numbers will be fewer in 2015 than they are today -- and even desktops will benefit from innovation in gaming and 3D."

Forrester predicts that "growth will come from new form factors like tablets, but laptop sales will increase steadily also." Tablets will start outselling netbooks in 2012, according to Forrester's report, "The US Consumer PC Market In 2015." Forrester's report, like that of IDC, also sees PCs as not quite dead yet.

"Fewer desktops will be sold in 2015 than in 2010, but in 2015, they'll still be used by more consumers than any other type of PC," Rotman Epps stated.

So all of these are wrong...Forester who has been typically very accurate (which is why they make money for their investors) and IDC both got it all wrong, when their livelihood and that of many of their investors/clients hinge on them being right.

Really...

 

[TroutBum]

https://www.informationweek.com/news/hardware/desktop/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=223800259



https://www.onlinesocialmedia.net/2...et-pc-in-2015-which-will-be-the-most-popular/

https://news.yahoo.com/s/mashable/2...les_will_eclipse_laptop_sales_by_2015_stats_1

https://www.forrester.com/rb/research





[Both quotes above reflect the US market only.]

More info...

https://mcpmag.com/articles/2010/06/18/pc-sales-to-grow-20-percent-this-year.aspx



So all of these are wrong...Forester who has been typically very accurate (which is why they make money for their investors) and IDC both got it all wrong, when their livelihood and that of many of their investors/clients hinge on them being right.

Really...

Post all the links you want, you're still wrong; he read about this on Twitter. tweets>actual fact>science

 

[SaltyDawg]

So your standpoint is that within 4 years the 350-400 million units of PC's sold annually will drop to 0. 2015 sales of PC's will be nothing.

Really...

Did I say that somewhere? I think I was pretty clear that there will always be sales to extreme users. But the average user will be using their smartphone more than a home computer in 4 years. Computers will still be around, they just won't get any use by the average user.

And here are some links for you:
https://androidheadlines.com/2010/0...-smartphones-will-outsell-pcs-in-2-years.html

https://mentormate.com/blog/new-research-smartphones-to-outsell-pcs-by-2012/

https://www.channelregister.co.uk/2010/06/08/morgan_stanley/

And here's one that basically says the PC's only chance of survival is if they imitate smartphones (cloud computing and storage, instant on, app store, etc):
https://www.cnbc.com/id/40827373

Post all the links you want, you're still wrong; he read about this on Twitter. tweets>actual fact>science

Or we could just listen to trout, who has no idea what he's talking about but he read some crap on jazzfanz so that qualifies him to argue with someone who makes a lot of money in this industry and has been reading Jazzfanz from a smartphone longer than anyone else (just ask Jason when I first started asking for a mobile version).

 

[LogGrad98]

Did I say that somewhere?

Thread: Smartphones to replace computers soon

 

[SaltyDawg]

Thread: Smartphones to replace computers soon

I ask again, did I say computer sales would be 0 in 4 years somewhere? Please point it out if I did.

Cars replaced the horse a long time ago but that doesn't mean not a single horse has ever been sold since.

 

[LogGrad98]

Definition of REPLACE
transitive verb
1: to restore to a former place or position <replace cards in a file>
2: to take the place of especially as a substitute or successor
3: to put something new in the place of <replace a worn carpet>

Definition of "soon":

In about 4 years.

 

[SaltyDawg]

Definition of "soon":

And? I don't see "render sales to zero" as part of that definition.

And yes, 4 years would be soon. A lot sooner than you apparently think.

 

[LogGrad98]

LOL this is just full of back-pedal. You argued so hard that smartphones are the replacement for computers. Every reason for keeping computers around you shot down with vehemence. Then when the facts are presented that computers are not going away any time soon you make sure to point out that you didn't really mean "replace", like you said in the thread title and argued so strongly for, you meant something else, like what, "play alongside nicely" or something?

You went at this so hardcore and over the top from the get-go did you really expect no one to call you on it?

 

[SaltyDawg]

LOL this is just full of back-pedal. You argued so hard that smartphones are the replacement for computers. Every reason for keeping computers around you shot down with vehemence. Then when the facts are presented that computers are not going away any time soon you make sure to point out that you didn't really mean "replace", like you said in the thread title and argued so strongly for, you meant something else, like what, "play alongside nicely" or something?

You went at this so hardcore and over the top from the get-go did you really expect no one to call you on it?

Are you not following along or something? Nowhere did I say computer sales would be zero. Please show me where I said that. In several posts I said, and this is a copy and paste from one of my posts in this very thread:
"I agree there will be the abnormal case where someone needs a super powerful desktop for pro video production, video games that are better than current gen consoles, etc. But for average computing- email, web, word, excel, music, photos, home videos, current gen console quality gaming, skype, etc, these phones will be more than enough."

So you can stop trying to split hairs. I have been clear about my position since we had this discussion on the old board, and into this current thread.

 

[TroutBum]

Or we could just listen to trout.

Easily the smartest thing you've said in this entire thread.