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Solving For Tanking, We're smart, let's figure it out

SoberasHotRod said:
The game theory podcast had a recent episode with tank rankings where they rated how much each team needed Cooper Flagg. That's kind of how the idea came from.

The Wheel is completely fair, but requires even more luck than the lottery since drafts are not created equal. A team would really have to luck out on getting their top picks during years where top pick worthy guys are in the draft.

FWIW, I'm just putting these thoughts out there as theoretical ideas that should be considered. I continue to think that ideas like the Wheel are incomplete without addressing the need for alternative ways to build a team outside of the draft.
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Most years there is a really good player at #1, so again, I dont think that's a good argument. And you dont only get the #1 pick, you get 2/3/4/5. The odds of you getting a top 5 pick in only "bad" drafts is low.

Just go look at the list of the #1 picks over the last 10 years. Most are all-stars, and a lot are future HOFers.

The "bad" picks (Fultz/Ayton/Bennett) also werent the overwhelming #1 picks and could have those teams made smarter selections (Luka/Tatum/2013 was weird and no one was taking Giannis #1, so I guess that's also a nightmare draft to select in the top 5). The 2024 draft was truly unique with Risacher and there not being any great talent at #1.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Most years there is a really good player at #1, so again, I dont think that's a good argument. And you dont only get the #1 pick, you get 2/3/4/5. The odds of you getting a top 5 pick in only "bad" drafts is low.

Just go look at the list of the #1 picks over the last 10 years. Most are all-stars, and a lot are future HOFers.

The "bad" picks (Fultz/Ayton/Bennett) also werent the overwhelming #1 picks and could have those teams made smarter selections (Luka/Tatum/2013 was weird and no one was taking Giannis #1, so I guess that's also a nightmare draft to select in the top 5). The 2024 draft was truly unique with Risacher and there not being any great talent at #1.
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You had brought up the need for a guy that can be a #1 guy on a contender, or basically a top 10 guy. Those guys aren't in every draft. It feels like you are being overly attached to the Wheel idea if you are going to pretend that luck wouldn't be a big part of it.

I'm not at the point of comparing ideas yet, so the Wheel might end up being the best option, but there are definite drawbacks that should be considered.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
You had brought up the need for a guy that can be a #1 guy on a contender, or basically a top 10 guy. Those guys aren't in every draft. It feels like you are being overly attached to the Wheel idea if you are going to pretend that luck wouldn't be a big part of it.

I'm not at the point of comparing ideas yet, so the Wheel might end up being the best option, but there are definite drawbacks that should be considered.
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Yes, there is still luck, but less luck
 
Having an NBA wide lottery for the first 5 picks then a straight lottery for all remaining non playoff teams draft positions would eliminate any incentive to tank.
 
bopahull said:
Having an NBA wide lottery for the first 5 picks then a straight lottery for all remaining non playoff teams draft positions would eliminate any incentive to tank.
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Ya mostly I think you are right but of course there are problems with that system that could arise. The NBA champs get the number 1 pick and the legit worst team in the league who isn't even tanking gets a pick that doesn't help much at all and continues to suck.

But I would still prefer that to what we currently have I think.
 
The Midnight said:
Personally I don't think tanking is that big an issue people make it out to be. The lottery odds are flat enough that only 3-4 teams are incentivized to do it religiously each year. Out of 30 teams that’s not a bad thing.

It’s just a normal process of getting really bad before you get really good.
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It feels really strange how conditioned NBA fans have become. Tanking and throwing away whole seasons is not normal. It is as abnormal as there is. Nothing could be less normal. And of all the countries of the world, all sports in them, the NBA is pretty much the only one where it exists (at least to this level).

Of course the draft itself is abnormal and a result of a 1920s antitrust ruling that pro sports has absolutely nothing to do with inter-state anything, because these "exhibitions" are completely "state affairs"...
 
I think it's worth discussing what makes basketball and the NBA unique to other major professional sports leagues that are related to making the draft super important
Here are a few I thought of:

- With only 5 players on the court at the same time the impact one player can have is greater.
- The history of dynasties being built off of drafted players.
- 7 years of control for drafted players
- Bird rights and other rules that discourage free agency.
- Not having a hard cap, combined with max contracts make it more difficult for small market teams to compete for star players.

Any other thoughts?
 
I think people need to be really careful in general to not have the attitude that there is no scenario worse than whatever present problem they are fixated on. I think losing touch with the complexity of reality and why we’ve collectively done things a certain way is plunging the world into one of inexcusable ignorance.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I think it's worth discussing what makes basketball and the NBA unique to other major professional sports leagues that are related to making the draft super important
Here are a few I thought of:

- With only 5 players on the court at the same time the impact one player can have is greater.
- The history of dynasties being built off of drafted players.
- 7 years of control for drafted players
- Bird rights and other rules that discourage free agency.
- Not having a hard cap, combined with max contracts make it more difficult for small market teams to compete for star players.

Any other thoughts?
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I would add the issue of rookie-scale contracts to this. Due to the nature of the cap and max contracts, not to mention the recent aprons, it's basically impossible to put a team of 10 veteran players together. Because rookie contracts are artificially limited, there's a huge incentive to having several players on a rookie contract on your team. Walker makes 3 million this year and his production is of a very solid starter. I haven't checked, but I feel like NBA centers currently making 3 million who aren't on a rookie contract are all garbage.
 
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