Somewhat scientific predictions for Jazz players stats and total win number for upcoming season

[idiot]

I've never put much stock in WS and this proves my skepticism.

Your skepticism is warranted. I've never been all that taken with WS either.

All this study does is point to the possibility (based on two questionable assumptions: that WS represents what it claims to represent, and that the predictions for 2013-14 WS are based on a solid methodology) that the Jazz will be somewhat better than most forecasts expect and that the bench will be a strong reason for this surprising strength.

We'll just have to see what happens.

 

[candrew]

Determining Win-Shares for a bench player is questionable as it is - there are too many league averages incorporated into the calculations. You take a guy like Jeremy Evans - 30% of his minutes last year were garbage. Garbage minutes are played at a different pace, different defensive intesity etc...

Predicting Win-Shares for a player who is going from the bench to starter minutes is probably a complete waste of time. Some players get better with increased minutes, others stay the same, some play worse. You never know until you put them out there.