Sophomore PRABS for Kessler and Ochai

[sip]

If Kessler gets around 30 minutes a game then I think 13pts, 11rbs and 2.5blks, 60%fg, 60%ft is a pretty reasonable expectation. With Ochai I think he is around 26 minutes a game and gives us 8pts, 3.5rbs and 1 steal, 44% fg and 40%3pt.

 

[fishonjazz]

So I did a small excel excercise based on last year trying to estimate Kessler and Ochai PRABS going into next season. I took the games where they played most minutes (Ochai anything over 15, Kessler anything over 25), and used those as the base. That ended up with Ochai averaging 25,5 minutes which looks too high, but Kessler ended up at 30,3 which to me feels spot on.

While most of it is just pure averages from last year, I want to note I added 15% more points and 5% more to other stats, which are improvements I just arbitrary chose based on them being better integrated to the offense from day 1 and also both being more experienced now and likely improving their consistency.

So the number crunch projected them to produce these types of statlines in the 2023-24 season.

	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Steals	Blocks
Kessler	30,3​	15,1​	12,1​	1,4​	0,5​	3,4​
Ochai	25,5​	12,0​	2,7​	1,5​	0,4​	0,4​

So if they ended up producing those types of numbers, would you be happy with that? Does anyone else have their own projections they wanna throw out?

Personally, I would be really happy with Kessler producing that statline and a bit underwhelmed with Ochai (12 points is nice, but the other stats really arent for 25 mpg). I think Ochai has a higher ceiling than that, but then again he likely wont average 25 minutes per game with the backcourt situation we have right now, unless we go tank mode again and he gets lots of those 30+ minutes games.

I think kessler will be right around those numbers. 15, 12 and three blocks is about right imo. Prime Gobert type numbers.

Ochai needs to improve a lot from how he played last season. Kessler was already awesome last year. Ochai wasnt really (wish he would have been playing from day 1 during a tank season but whatever)


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[fishonjazz]

If Kessler gets around 30 minutes a game then I think 13pts, 11rbs and 2.5blks, 60%fg, 60%ft is a pretty reasonable expectation. With Ochai I think he is around 26 minutes a game and gives us 8pts, 3.5rbs and 1 steal, 44% fg and 40%3pt.

Yep.


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[The Jazz Wonderbra]

I personally attribute a lot of Gobert and Kessler's play to Alex Jensen. He is no longer here. That could contribute to a sophomore slump for Kessler. I dont hope for it, but Jensen did a masterful job with both of our centers and the voices on the bench just changed big time.

Ochai looked terrible in summer league. We were asking him to do new things and he struggled big time. If he can't do those new things, others will be asked to and given those minutes.

Sophomore slumps are common. I smell periods of slumpage brewing.

 

[sip]

I personally attribute a lot of Gobert and Kessler's play to Alex Jensen. He is no longer here. That could contribute to a sophomore slump for Kessler. I dont hope for it, but Jensen did a masterful job with both of our centers and the voices on the bench just changed big time.

Ochai looked terrible in summer league. We were asking him to do new things and he struggled big time. If he can't do those new things, others will be asked to and given those minutes.

Sophomore slumps are common. I smell periods of slumpage brewing.

Ochai wasn't terrible in the summer league at the things he will be asked to do in the nba. He is almost strictly a 3 and D guy that will provide very little shot creation for himself or other players. That is fine though because every coach loves having a quality 3 and d guy.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I personally attribute a lot of Gobert and Kessler's play to Alex Jensen. He is no longer here. That could contribute to a sophomore slump for Kessler. I dont hope for it, but Jensen did a masterful job with both of our centers and the voices on the bench just changed big time.

Ochai looked terrible in summer league. We were asking him to do new things and he struggled big time. If he can't do those new things, others will be asked to and given those minutes.

Sophomore slumps are common. I smell periods of slumpage brewing.

I don't think Ochai looked terrible, but there were some positive and negatives. On the positive side he rebounded the ball much better than what we saw last year. He was also fouling a lot, which if you look at the positive means he was being more aggressive on defense. Probably the biggest negative is that he wasn't consistently hitting open 3's like he needs to. Everything else was him just experimenting.

It's been discussed before, so I won't go too far with this, but the Sophomore slump is real in that players who exceed expectations in their rookie year often fall short of expectations in their sophomore year, but the key word here is expectations. For the most part Sophomores who had great rookie years like Kessler make small improvements, the problem is that fans expect big improvements and so they don't meet expectations which is viewed as a slump.