Statistical likelihood for stars/busts in draft

[idiot]

I wonder how many years a player gotta play to be called "bust" or decided as stiff? Some calls Kanter "bust" on this board too.

Vashro defines "bust" for his model as no season above 2.5 win shares. Kanter hasn't gone above this mark yet, but I'd say he's fairly likely to, unless his next coach doesn't give him playing time.

 

[SojoDave]

68.5% of all stats are made up on the spot. 9 out of 10 people who are constipated don't give a crap. These stats mean we need to move up.

 

[orangello]

As with all historically based statistical models, this shouldn't be taken as any superior guide to truth. His model has had both notable "successes" and "failures" in the past compared to other draft rankings. It's just another piece of data to consider.

I would like to know these first before I start giving any credence to this post.

 

[idiot]

I would like to know these first before I start giving any credence to this post.

It doesn't provide a perfect answer (and I wish it was easier to find a fuller answer), but the link I provided in post #5 does point to some of the biggest "home runs" and biggest "swings and misses" the model makes. It also provides a ranking, as of a couple years ago, of the highest several predicted EWPs by position over the last several drafts.

 

[idiot]

PS, to orangello's question: if you go to the model spreadsheet I linked to in the OP, and click the RETRO tab, you can find additional useful predictions over the past few years.

 

[idiot]

Haven't listened yet, but a podcast with Vashro talking about his models can be found here.