Duck Rodgers
Well-Known Member
Nice job. I see that you're in New York now.....you a Wall Street guy?
Stock Picks
- Thread starter Gyp Rosetti
- Start date
Nice job. I see that you're in New York now.....you a Wall Street guy?
utahjazz107
Active Member
Yeah I do I-banking primarily focusing on healthcare mainly biotech
leftyjace
Well-Known Member
Duck Rodgers
Well-Known Member
There's definitely a handful of big names that can individually move markets and he is near the top of the list. You should see what they do to smaller stocks when they announce that they have positions in those. I remember one going up 42% in one day this year because he said he took a position and had talked to management. Herbalife went up 17% the day he announced a spot and then lost all of that in few hours.
That's when you go in and hammer them. If something is up > 10% because some shmuck or some investment firm came out and said they took a position, or because Jim Cramer said BUY BUY BUY, go short it for the day while using a stop. The odds are in your favor.
Why is nobody talking about the potential consequences of the constant repayment rate on the Fed's $1.25 trillion in MBS holdings?
Those 30 year mortgages are valued at their seven year average duration. People move, refinance, continue filing for bankruptcy (insured by the GSE's so no Fed worry there)... Even if the super high CPR of 20% drops to 10% or even 5% after a taper brings higher rates then we're still looking at an *** load of cash going into the Federal Reserve.
They're already buying way more debt than the national deficit -- that can't continue forever -- what happens to the Treasury's coffers when the Fed is receiving $100bln+ in prepayments every year?
I may have to move "Sell in October, buy a Land Rover" up two months. Taper speculation has already crushed the high yield defensives bubble.
Those 30 year mortgages are valued at their seven year average duration. People move, refinance, continue filing for bankruptcy (insured by the GSE's so no Fed worry there)... Even if the super high CPR of 20% drops to 10% or even 5% after a taper brings higher rates then we're still looking at an *** load of cash going into the Federal Reserve.
They're already buying way more debt than the national deficit -- that can't continue forever -- what happens to the Treasury's coffers when the Fed is receiving $100bln+ in prepayments every year?
I may have to move "Sell in October, buy a Land Rover" up two months. Taper speculation has already crushed the high yield defensives bubble.
utahjazz107
Active Member
There goes AMBS.
August 12th: .037
Now: .085
Difference: 130% gain in 15 market days
Giving a heads up on Franklin Street Properties and a little summary for those who like RE. I've followed this company for years and have owned shares since 2008 (owned more in the past and want more now). It is by far my favorite stock and a steal if it drops 10-15% (would put it at liquidation value without adding back in over depreciation). Start your research before (if) it corrects.
The CEO George Carter is as shareholder friendly as they come. The guy owns about 1,000,000 shares and voluntarily took a pay cut in 2008 when the company didn't need him to do so but he did it anyway to keep the numbers a little better for the rest of us. He then went on a buying spree putting even more money into the company when he was making less. He's a damn good navigator as well, taking the company into the recession with ZERO debt which is something RE companies seldom do. Since then he's been able to leverage up and buy properties at 2-2.5% fixed financing when others were forced to sell. He also put out a stock offering of about 25% increase in shares at a time when the company was selling for about 20% higher and comparatively overvalued IMO. I was hoping they'd do it at the time and Carter delivered. He took on a Target HQ linked property a few years back that had an expiring tenant so the property was selling at distressed values. Some shareholders were freaking out about losing the tenant and going bankrupt just as the prior ownership had, but Carter knew the property would be worth a lot more if the contract wasn't re-upped (said this on a conference call to a not so polite investor or analyst). He shut down their investment banking branch in good time following the 2008 collapse and drying up of that customer base. They syndicated single asset REITs to investors they called very loyal, repeat customers. It was a great business for everyone involved and turned 50% profits off gross. That business can be reopened any time FSP sees that demand has come back. Dividend was cut from $1.10 to $0.76 during the crash and has been maintained ever since. That might sound like a bad thing but considering that most debt burdened companies had to cut to zero and many liquidated, it's actually a pretty solid number. Besides, the company is in the growth phase and the dividend is eventually going to go up big for patient investors.
There are interest rate issues and market forces that make this a hard short term investment for those wanting to beat the market over the next couple of years. It's hard for RE to outrun a market going up 20%+ for years.
Merry Christmas.
The CEO George Carter is as shareholder friendly as they come. The guy owns about 1,000,000 shares and voluntarily took a pay cut in 2008 when the company didn't need him to do so but he did it anyway to keep the numbers a little better for the rest of us. He then went on a buying spree putting even more money into the company when he was making less. He's a damn good navigator as well, taking the company into the recession with ZERO debt which is something RE companies seldom do. Since then he's been able to leverage up and buy properties at 2-2.5% fixed financing when others were forced to sell. He also put out a stock offering of about 25% increase in shares at a time when the company was selling for about 20% higher and comparatively overvalued IMO. I was hoping they'd do it at the time and Carter delivered. He took on a Target HQ linked property a few years back that had an expiring tenant so the property was selling at distressed values. Some shareholders were freaking out about losing the tenant and going bankrupt just as the prior ownership had, but Carter knew the property would be worth a lot more if the contract wasn't re-upped (said this on a conference call to a not so polite investor or analyst). He shut down their investment banking branch in good time following the 2008 collapse and drying up of that customer base. They syndicated single asset REITs to investors they called very loyal, repeat customers. It was a great business for everyone involved and turned 50% profits off gross. That business can be reopened any time FSP sees that demand has come back. Dividend was cut from $1.10 to $0.76 during the crash and has been maintained ever since. That might sound like a bad thing but considering that most debt burdened companies had to cut to zero and many liquidated, it's actually a pretty solid number. Besides, the company is in the growth phase and the dividend is eventually going to go up big for patient investors.
There are interest rate issues and market forces that make this a hard short term investment for those wanting to beat the market over the next couple of years. It's hard for RE to outrun a market going up 20%+ for years.
Merry Christmas.
Duck Rodgers
Well-Known Member
This is one is of the wilder moves I've ever seen:
https://finance.yahoo.com/q;_ylt=Av...s&uhb=uhb2&type=2button&fr=uh3_finance_web_gs
https://seekingalpha.com/article/19...ollowing-A-Transformational-Deal?source=yahoo
https://finance.yahoo.com/q;_ylt=Av...s&uhb=uhb2&type=2button&fr=uh3_finance_web_gs
https://seekingalpha.com/article/19...ollowing-A-Transformational-Deal?source=yahoo
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You guys ever do the virtual trader over at OptionsXpress or whatever it is? I have no idea what I'm doing, but it's fun to play around with fake money.
My solar companies are kicking balls. Only 3 our of the 22 companies I've invested in are losing, and I'm up almost 6% since August. Sure, that's probably crap for most of you guys, but again, I'm an idiot.
HNR
HSOL
JASO
CSUN
My solar companies are kicking balls. Only 3 our of the 22 companies I've invested in are losing, and I'm up almost 6% since August. Sure, that's probably crap for most of you guys, but again, I'm an idiot.
HNR
HSOL
JASO
CSUN