Stock Picks

[TroutBum]

Einhorn's Finkel? Finkel's Einhorn?

Einhorn is a man! Einhorn is a man...?

 

[The Pearl]

Silver is now also breaking down.

 

[bluenote]

Anyone looking at any financial stocks? BAC, C, WFC? Or smaller banks like CSE? Or totally risky banks like AIB or IRE?

2011 is supposed to be the year of the financials - was wondering if anyone believes this and is purchasing.

 

[bluenote]

Those Irish banks will be delisted soon. They don't have any backstop. They might have legs enough for a trade or two, but long term I wouldn't even think about it.

Yeah, I remember when motley fool recommended AIB around 10.00/share - yikes. Still looking at Citi long term, but wondering what you guys think of the financial sector in general? Will financials be the darling of the market in 2011 like everyone is predicting?

 

[The Pearl]

This is probably all you need to know:

https://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1777005191&play=1

https://www.cnbc.com/id/41371171

 

[bluenote]

This is probably all you need to know:

https://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1777005191&play=1

https://www.cnbc.com/id/41371171

Thanks for the links - makes me feel a little more comfortable. FAIRX is the only mutual fund I am invested in at the moment, got in about 5 years ago and keep adding to my position. Really trust Berkowitz. Otherwise, besides AAPL I am very overweight in financials C, BAC, and CSE - hoping for some nice returns in 2011!

 

[VINYLONE]

2011 is supposed to be the year of the financials - was wondering if anyone believes this and is purchasing.

Based on what?

This is probably all you need to know:

https://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1777005191&play=1

Pearl, I watched that video...

Are you saying that the financial move is a good one for both long and short strategies? Furthermore, is it your believe that the mortgage crisis is over and will have no negative effect on any of the big box banks?

 

[The Pearl]

VINY,

What I am saying is this:

In the markets, if you have a theory about something either at the macro level, a stock specific idea, or even a general asset class, AND one of the very smart people with a long history of being correct at a high rate is of the opposite opinion, you had seriously rethink your position because you have a much higher probability of being wrong.

The snag in that methodology is filtering out the smart money from the dumb money and the great investors with excellent long term records from the one hit wonders.

 

[The Pearl]

Oh man, I was expecting Meredith Whitney in those links. I'll bet she makes your rotation.

I know more than a few people that swear by Berkowitz and Bill Ackman since they partner up a lot. Any time those types of guys are willing to take large positions in speculative stocks, that's when my ears really perk up. They killed on General Growth and Ackman's presence even had BGP breathing life for awhile. Their more stable holdings usually don't have much run to them though, but that works for all the guys wiping with 100 dollar bills out there.

Whitney is probably this cycle's Garzarelli. One good call followed by desperate attempts to stay relevant, followed by massive plastic surgery.

 

[VINYLONE]

Pearl, does Berkowitz ever write op-ed pieces or anything similar...something I can read or learn more about his views?

 

[Gyp Rosetti]

Whitney is probably this cycle's Garzarelli. One good call followed by desperate attempts to stay relevant, followed by massive plastic surgery.

Wasn't that Melanie Griffith?

 

[The Pearl]

Pearl, does Berkowitz ever write op-ed pieces or anything similar...something I can read or learn more about his views?

you can google him or the fairholme fund. You can probably find his quarterly letters somewhere on the web.

I think Fortune or Forbes just did a story on him.

Understand he is a value investor. Most value investors realize the pure folly of predicting or forecasting economic macro trends, hence are what is called "bottoms up" investors.