I thought it was seperate articles for each team. Mea culpa
Team Preview 2013/2014
- Thread starter BTP
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I thought it was seperate articles for each team. Mea culpa
Milwaukee
It's time for another team to inspect. Finally took my time today to finish the only competitive division in the East.
After signing Larry Sanders a couple days ago, let me present the situation Milwaukee's Front Office has to deal with:
While Milwaukee's roster's upside doesn't promise more than a 1st round playoffs loss anytime soon, their books are surprisingly loaded. This year they've invested $51.27M into 16 guaranteed players. That's below the cap but it's not enough space to add a guy who could turn around the franchise. And looking at their roster I'm not convinced they could lure one of this caliber to Wisconsin.
Next summer they have a caphold above the cap and the guaranteed contracts they'll have anyways will be worth $48.5M. Again not a situation giving you too many opportunities. The biggest share that lead to this situation can be attributed to the $15.6M contract they gave Zaza Pachulia.
This particular contract and the collossal $24M they will be paying for OJ Mayo over the next 3 years really leaves me puzzled what they're trying to achieve over there.
They'll probably be not bad enough to get a "can't miss" pick. But if they select smart they could add another productive key player who might be "the one" who makes some teams drafting earlier look silly.
Plus there will be no shortage of highly talented players who drop low because of character concerns.
Their last 3 draftpicks were basically BPA concensus at their respective positions and have been outperformed by very few below them and not marginally.
My concern with their managers is that they didn't act more patiently with Tobias Harris in their obviously disfunctional squad last year.
On the other hand they finally got rid of their coaching staff and got underrated Larry Drew from Atlanta aboard.
A lot of things can happen in Milwaukee. But with their tradition of brewing that's not too surprising. Most nights when the booze is flowing don't end where you expect them to.
Individual spotlight time:
Starting with their cornerstone and rim protector Larry Sanders:
Last season by shot charts from arenas with new camera technologies, Larry Sanders came out to be the most efficient. His opponents shot only 38% close to the rim and in general below 35% when Sanders contested a shot. After getting rewarded for his hard work he's now expected to get more playing time and carry a bigger workload in the future. How much that responsibility is expected offensively as well remains to be seen and it's not primarily what he's paid for.
Sanders is an active rebounder on both sides of the court posting elite numbers of grabbing 25% of missed attempts defensively and 12% on the offensive end. The defensive numbers are very strong if you consider that he blocks a beastly 7.5% of all shots while he's on the floor and makes the highest efficiency area on the court less desirable.
He displays elite instincts on timing opponents shots and helping out teammates. While he's slightly undersized at 6'10" in shoes his 7'6" wingspan makes up for most of it and he's a quick leaper, especially on the 2nd jump when it's his turn to collect the rebound.
His physical dominance makes it seem unlikely at this point that his game translates well in his 30s but we've seen all freaks of nature and I'll let him finish his prime before putting that thought into a prediction.
Offensively he's underused at 17% and doesn't have a single strong statline there. His 62% accuracy from the charity stripe has to improve, his 50% FG% are pedestrian too for a player, who getts most opportunities on putbacks, drop-offs and trailing the fastbreak. He isn't a successful passer at this stage (only 7%) which may be a result of his limits offensively where he's most successful right now on aforementioned trys where a pass isn't really a good option.
But the true reason why he posted a PER of 18.7 and .149 WS/48 is that he's a beast defensively. And these stats don't even factor in how much he changes opponents shots when nearby. Watch out for a perennial DPOY contender.
Former Grizzly, Mav and now Buck and soon to be 26 year old OJ Mayo had trouble to find a home for himself where he could play a role that he finds suited for himself. Selected in the deep 2008 draft 3rd overall, he got outperformed by more than half a dozen players selected behind him. Not living up to lofty expectations could have attributed to his unstable situation. Even after signing a $24M contract for 3 years it's hard for me to imagine him as a lifetime buck unless he doesn't make vast improvements especially defensively. Right now he's a swingman who doesn't offer more than elite shooting.
Let's begin looking into his strengths. Averaging almost 36 min/game Mayo shot 40% on 4.3 attempts from beyond. I'll go front and say he isn't shooting enough. His sweet stroke was the reason he achieved 56% trueshooting last season. If you look at his shot charts, you'll notice he's hitting above 40% from 10 feet away out to the 3 point line and his midrange while not PPP-efficient can be used to hold a 2.9 defense accountable and punish overhelping.
He's also a capable passer for a 2 guard, as 20% of his possessions end with him assisting a teammate.
Now unfortunately I'm already finished listing and going into detail on his strength.
If you look at the other end of the court there's a whole different OJ Mayo. The uninterested lackluster defender. I'm not sold a player can be that atrocious defensively only based on lack of height and lateral quickness.
Taking a more thorough look how he rotates on defense you get the impression he's failing at basic stuff. When playing the weakside you often see him help inside but losing his defender out of sight making him fail to close out appropriately giving up easy buckets.
Add to his defense the fact that he's not good at taking care of the ball (15.7% Turnover Ratio while being used on 20.9% of the possessions) makes you think he might become a pure shooter who's best suited playing off the ball.
Especially head scratching is the fact his PER of 13.9 is below league average of 15. And PER is based on offensive stats. Win Shares which also weigh offense higher than defense have never been above the league average of .1 and he finished with .069 in that category last season.
Long story short: OJ Mayo if not capable to extend his game(especially defensively) will be limited to knock down open 3s, curl from screens at every range and play isos if the low shotclock doesn't allow another set. That's basically a wing Steve Novak...
The young combo guard Brandon Knight came to town in a trade that sent Brandon Jennings to Detroit.
Knight is turning 22 this winter and has yet room for development. Once viewed upon as one of the most promising highschool players and described by fellow Kentucky insider as one of the most intelligent players off the court, he hasn't found a way to display a similar amount of BBIQ in the NBA.
But next year will be a great opportunity for him to have a breakthrough as a playmaker, since he's the only one in Milwaukee and has veteran Luke Ridnour as a mentor next to him. If he can eliminate some of his major flaws he'll be easily in the discussion for most improved. When you consider that the 3rd year is usually one where talents make the next step you gotta keep an eye on him.
But up to this point he hasn't been spectacular aside shooting the ball from distance.
Playing point guard, his corner threes are not where he excels in particular, he shoots more successful from the top of the key and overplays the left wing slightly.
Disappointing factors start inside the arc. He's 33% on long 3s and 29% from the distance between 3 and 10 feet. So the midrange pullups aren't a viable option one step inside the arc and neither does he have a successful helpdefense counter move from short range like a floater as shown by the number.
His 54% right at the basket also leave room for improvement.
And now I move on to my main criticism: Playmaking. For a pointguard dropping a dime on only 20% of your possessions is obviously not looking good. When you're not able to finish possessions as highlighted by his 17.3% TO Ratio at 22.8% usage. You won't find many pointguards who turn it over more often. In both played seasons his Offensive Rating was below 100 and the equivalent on the defensive end at 109 and 111 marking a team worst defensive efficiency while on the floor.
As a result his 12.0 PER and .022 WS/48 don't imply he's deserving of the playing time he receives yet.
If he can't improve significantly as highlighted he'll find himself on the bench as an off guard and 3 point specialist rather sooner than later.
Good thing for him is that Milwaukee doesn't appear to be in position to be a playoff threat the next upcoming years. So he'll find himself in the best possible position to improve while receiving massive opportunities.
Another possibly asset Milwaukee has right now is Ersan Ilyasova:
The 26 year old Turk is their stretch 4, at least when he's on a roll. That makes me wonder if his issue to not achieve continuous success for more than a couple games in a row is of mental nature, eg. confidence?
Ersan is a classic off the ball player, who moves well at times. His 45% clip from 3 point land he posted over the last 2 years is on a rather low sample size and looking at his shot chart you see that 98% of his successful threes are assisted.
So Larry Drew and Ilyasova face the challenge to get him more good looks to make the team benefit more from his accuracy.
The pick and pop has been efficient with him in particular.
Near the basket he's shooting 57%, that's mainly due to his lack of athleticism as his positioning as the roll guy and on rebounds is spot on. He instinctively goes to the spot where the ball is most likely falling statistically on attempts. Pair that with his willingness to box out and you know he's grabbing a strong 20% of the defensive boards and a moderate 8% offensively.
Playing exclusively off the ball it doesn't surprise that he posted a strong 8% turnover ratio last year while being used a moderate 20% of the possessions.
As a result of his smart play and rarely forcing bad plays his PER was 18.3 last season and 20.5 in his contract year before that. His win shares per 48 minutes were strong .159 and .185 the last 2 years.
Summed up Ilyasova is an efficient shooter who makes most out of the opportunities given on offense and tries hard to negate his (body) deficiencies on the defensive end.
If Knight, Ridnour and Mayo can do a better job of finding him when he's available to score he'll find more success next year compared to playing alongside rather selfish Jennings and Ellis. But aside from Ridnour if I were him I wouldn't hope for too many passes.
To finish this entry what can we expect from the Bucks in the next season(s)?
They have players that will enable them to compete most nights and even surprise some of the big teams. Some of them are young and will probably grow into bigger roles in the future. John Henson is turning 23, Knight 22, their key contributors Sanders(25), Ilyasova(26) and Mayo(26) are entering their prime.
But I don't see a single player that can make the difference and lead them out of the first playoff round. They probably hope that their Adetokunbo is a big steal from last year's draft, but he's very raw and will probably need several years to grow into starter minutes.
They also signed veteran Delfino as a mentor for 2 guaranteed years and at least $6.5M while his 3rd year is non guaranteed.
The headscratcher of the year though was the huge contract for backup center Pachulia. With Sanders expected to play most of the minutes and Pachulia being not more than a defender, rebounder, hustle-player and scoring a couple putbacks, I have to ask why they would commit so much money on such a little role for him. For a shorter contract I'd understand that they have to hit the minimum level and want to have a servicable deep rotation to win ball games. But 3 years $15.6M is simply showing how painful it must be to play for the Bucks if you have to pay these kind of numbers.
PG: Brandon Knight, Luke Ridnour, Ish Smith, Nate Wolters
SG: O.J. Mayo, Gary Neal
SF: Carlos Delfino, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton
PF: Ersan Ilyasova, John Henson
C : Larry Sanders, Zaza Pachulia, Ekpe Udoh, Miroslav Raduljica, Vyacheslav Kravtsov
Their depth at center is a result of picking up garbage pieces in the trade with Detroit to make the numbers match. Next year at least Kravtsov and Udoh will be released by the team. Raduljica was a desired pickup this summer which I don't understand the slightest when you see Sanders and Pachulia.
Some people thought that John Henson had a promising rookie campaign and expect him to make the next step, but he's almost 23 and I'm sceptical of his ceiling. I think he may be a good complement for Ilyasova and scorer on the bench unit, but nothing more.
My prediction on their success is that they will end up around 35 wins. Their new backcourt most likely will have the same issues their old had defensively and in regards of playmaking. They overhauled the SF position and added their new project, but imagine a much improved Tobias Harris on their squad?
Their frontcourt is servicable and Larry Sanders will be able to clog the paint once again, erasing most of Ilyasova's deficits playing next to him.
That together with their depth on the bench will account for most of the wins they get.
I don't like their long term prospect at all. They don't seem to be neither in position to get a really strong player through the draft that they really need, nor does their current lineup project to be more than a 8 seed in the East long term. It seems to be a financially motivated decision to semi tank and hope to score a restricted future allstar like Houston grabbed with James Harden or have luck through the draft. While next years 7-10 picks where they'll likely select unless extremely lucky, might have a star in their ranks, they could have easily tanked the year, developed their youth further and improved their odds.
But management doesn't appear to be willing to lose revenue to do that and have a higher chance to enjoy success on the court in the future which would lead to selling out their arena as well and raising ticket prices. That's not smart from a long term business and sports perspective in my eyes.
Just my 2 cents.
It's time for another team to inspect. Finally took my time today to finish the only competitive division in the East.
After signing Larry Sanders a couple days ago, let me present the situation Milwaukee's Front Office has to deal with:
While Milwaukee's roster's upside doesn't promise more than a 1st round playoffs loss anytime soon, their books are surprisingly loaded. This year they've invested $51.27M into 16 guaranteed players. That's below the cap but it's not enough space to add a guy who could turn around the franchise. And looking at their roster I'm not convinced they could lure one of this caliber to Wisconsin.
Next summer they have a caphold above the cap and the guaranteed contracts they'll have anyways will be worth $48.5M. Again not a situation giving you too many opportunities. The biggest share that lead to this situation can be attributed to the $15.6M contract they gave Zaza Pachulia.
This particular contract and the collossal $24M they will be paying for OJ Mayo over the next 3 years really leaves me puzzled what they're trying to achieve over there.
They'll probably be not bad enough to get a "can't miss" pick. But if they select smart they could add another productive key player who might be "the one" who makes some teams drafting earlier look silly.
Plus there will be no shortage of highly talented players who drop low because of character concerns.
Their last 3 draftpicks were basically BPA concensus at their respective positions and have been outperformed by very few below them and not marginally.
My concern with their managers is that they didn't act more patiently with Tobias Harris in their obviously disfunctional squad last year.
On the other hand they finally got rid of their coaching staff and got underrated Larry Drew from Atlanta aboard.
A lot of things can happen in Milwaukee. But with their tradition of brewing that's not too surprising. Most nights when the booze is flowing don't end where you expect them to.
Individual spotlight time:
Starting with their cornerstone and rim protector Larry Sanders:
Last season by shot charts from arenas with new camera technologies, Larry Sanders came out to be the most efficient. His opponents shot only 38% close to the rim and in general below 35% when Sanders contested a shot. After getting rewarded for his hard work he's now expected to get more playing time and carry a bigger workload in the future. How much that responsibility is expected offensively as well remains to be seen and it's not primarily what he's paid for.
Sanders is an active rebounder on both sides of the court posting elite numbers of grabbing 25% of missed attempts defensively and 12% on the offensive end. The defensive numbers are very strong if you consider that he blocks a beastly 7.5% of all shots while he's on the floor and makes the highest efficiency area on the court less desirable.
He displays elite instincts on timing opponents shots and helping out teammates. While he's slightly undersized at 6'10" in shoes his 7'6" wingspan makes up for most of it and he's a quick leaper, especially on the 2nd jump when it's his turn to collect the rebound.
His physical dominance makes it seem unlikely at this point that his game translates well in his 30s but we've seen all freaks of nature and I'll let him finish his prime before putting that thought into a prediction.
Offensively he's underused at 17% and doesn't have a single strong statline there. His 62% accuracy from the charity stripe has to improve, his 50% FG% are pedestrian too for a player, who getts most opportunities on putbacks, drop-offs and trailing the fastbreak. He isn't a successful passer at this stage (only 7%) which may be a result of his limits offensively where he's most successful right now on aforementioned trys where a pass isn't really a good option.
But the true reason why he posted a PER of 18.7 and .149 WS/48 is that he's a beast defensively. And these stats don't even factor in how much he changes opponents shots when nearby. Watch out for a perennial DPOY contender.
Former Grizzly, Mav and now Buck and soon to be 26 year old OJ Mayo had trouble to find a home for himself where he could play a role that he finds suited for himself. Selected in the deep 2008 draft 3rd overall, he got outperformed by more than half a dozen players selected behind him. Not living up to lofty expectations could have attributed to his unstable situation. Even after signing a $24M contract for 3 years it's hard for me to imagine him as a lifetime buck unless he doesn't make vast improvements especially defensively. Right now he's a swingman who doesn't offer more than elite shooting.
Let's begin looking into his strengths. Averaging almost 36 min/game Mayo shot 40% on 4.3 attempts from beyond. I'll go front and say he isn't shooting enough. His sweet stroke was the reason he achieved 56% trueshooting last season. If you look at his shot charts, you'll notice he's hitting above 40% from 10 feet away out to the 3 point line and his midrange while not PPP-efficient can be used to hold a 2.9 defense accountable and punish overhelping.
He's also a capable passer for a 2 guard, as 20% of his possessions end with him assisting a teammate.
Now unfortunately I'm already finished listing and going into detail on his strength.
If you look at the other end of the court there's a whole different OJ Mayo. The uninterested lackluster defender. I'm not sold a player can be that atrocious defensively only based on lack of height and lateral quickness.
Taking a more thorough look how he rotates on defense you get the impression he's failing at basic stuff. When playing the weakside you often see him help inside but losing his defender out of sight making him fail to close out appropriately giving up easy buckets.
Add to his defense the fact that he's not good at taking care of the ball (15.7% Turnover Ratio while being used on 20.9% of the possessions) makes you think he might become a pure shooter who's best suited playing off the ball.
Especially head scratching is the fact his PER of 13.9 is below league average of 15. And PER is based on offensive stats. Win Shares which also weigh offense higher than defense have never been above the league average of .1 and he finished with .069 in that category last season.
Long story short: OJ Mayo if not capable to extend his game(especially defensively) will be limited to knock down open 3s, curl from screens at every range and play isos if the low shotclock doesn't allow another set. That's basically a wing Steve Novak...
The young combo guard Brandon Knight came to town in a trade that sent Brandon Jennings to Detroit.
Knight is turning 22 this winter and has yet room for development. Once viewed upon as one of the most promising highschool players and described by fellow Kentucky insider as one of the most intelligent players off the court, he hasn't found a way to display a similar amount of BBIQ in the NBA.
But next year will be a great opportunity for him to have a breakthrough as a playmaker, since he's the only one in Milwaukee and has veteran Luke Ridnour as a mentor next to him. If he can eliminate some of his major flaws he'll be easily in the discussion for most improved. When you consider that the 3rd year is usually one where talents make the next step you gotta keep an eye on him.
But up to this point he hasn't been spectacular aside shooting the ball from distance.
Playing point guard, his corner threes are not where he excels in particular, he shoots more successful from the top of the key and overplays the left wing slightly.
Disappointing factors start inside the arc. He's 33% on long 3s and 29% from the distance between 3 and 10 feet. So the midrange pullups aren't a viable option one step inside the arc and neither does he have a successful helpdefense counter move from short range like a floater as shown by the number.
His 54% right at the basket also leave room for improvement.
And now I move on to my main criticism: Playmaking. For a pointguard dropping a dime on only 20% of your possessions is obviously not looking good. When you're not able to finish possessions as highlighted by his 17.3% TO Ratio at 22.8% usage. You won't find many pointguards who turn it over more often. In both played seasons his Offensive Rating was below 100 and the equivalent on the defensive end at 109 and 111 marking a team worst defensive efficiency while on the floor.
As a result his 12.0 PER and .022 WS/48 don't imply he's deserving of the playing time he receives yet.
If he can't improve significantly as highlighted he'll find himself on the bench as an off guard and 3 point specialist rather sooner than later.
Good thing for him is that Milwaukee doesn't appear to be in position to be a playoff threat the next upcoming years. So he'll find himself in the best possible position to improve while receiving massive opportunities.
Another possibly asset Milwaukee has right now is Ersan Ilyasova:
The 26 year old Turk is their stretch 4, at least when he's on a roll. That makes me wonder if his issue to not achieve continuous success for more than a couple games in a row is of mental nature, eg. confidence?
Ersan is a classic off the ball player, who moves well at times. His 45% clip from 3 point land he posted over the last 2 years is on a rather low sample size and looking at his shot chart you see that 98% of his successful threes are assisted.
So Larry Drew and Ilyasova face the challenge to get him more good looks to make the team benefit more from his accuracy.
The pick and pop has been efficient with him in particular.
Near the basket he's shooting 57%, that's mainly due to his lack of athleticism as his positioning as the roll guy and on rebounds is spot on. He instinctively goes to the spot where the ball is most likely falling statistically on attempts. Pair that with his willingness to box out and you know he's grabbing a strong 20% of the defensive boards and a moderate 8% offensively.
Playing exclusively off the ball it doesn't surprise that he posted a strong 8% turnover ratio last year while being used a moderate 20% of the possessions.
As a result of his smart play and rarely forcing bad plays his PER was 18.3 last season and 20.5 in his contract year before that. His win shares per 48 minutes were strong .159 and .185 the last 2 years.
Summed up Ilyasova is an efficient shooter who makes most out of the opportunities given on offense and tries hard to negate his (body) deficiencies on the defensive end.
If Knight, Ridnour and Mayo can do a better job of finding him when he's available to score he'll find more success next year compared to playing alongside rather selfish Jennings and Ellis. But aside from Ridnour if I were him I wouldn't hope for too many passes.
To finish this entry what can we expect from the Bucks in the next season(s)?
They have players that will enable them to compete most nights and even surprise some of the big teams. Some of them are young and will probably grow into bigger roles in the future. John Henson is turning 23, Knight 22, their key contributors Sanders(25), Ilyasova(26) and Mayo(26) are entering their prime.
But I don't see a single player that can make the difference and lead them out of the first playoff round. They probably hope that their Adetokunbo is a big steal from last year's draft, but he's very raw and will probably need several years to grow into starter minutes.
They also signed veteran Delfino as a mentor for 2 guaranteed years and at least $6.5M while his 3rd year is non guaranteed.
The headscratcher of the year though was the huge contract for backup center Pachulia. With Sanders expected to play most of the minutes and Pachulia being not more than a defender, rebounder, hustle-player and scoring a couple putbacks, I have to ask why they would commit so much money on such a little role for him. For a shorter contract I'd understand that they have to hit the minimum level and want to have a servicable deep rotation to win ball games. But 3 years $15.6M is simply showing how painful it must be to play for the Bucks if you have to pay these kind of numbers.
PG: Brandon Knight, Luke Ridnour, Ish Smith, Nate Wolters
SG: O.J. Mayo, Gary Neal
SF: Carlos Delfino, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton
PF: Ersan Ilyasova, John Henson
C : Larry Sanders, Zaza Pachulia, Ekpe Udoh, Miroslav Raduljica, Vyacheslav Kravtsov
Their depth at center is a result of picking up garbage pieces in the trade with Detroit to make the numbers match. Next year at least Kravtsov and Udoh will be released by the team. Raduljica was a desired pickup this summer which I don't understand the slightest when you see Sanders and Pachulia.
Some people thought that John Henson had a promising rookie campaign and expect him to make the next step, but he's almost 23 and I'm sceptical of his ceiling. I think he may be a good complement for Ilyasova and scorer on the bench unit, but nothing more.
My prediction on their success is that they will end up around 35 wins. Their new backcourt most likely will have the same issues their old had defensively and in regards of playmaking. They overhauled the SF position and added their new project, but imagine a much improved Tobias Harris on their squad?
Their frontcourt is servicable and Larry Sanders will be able to clog the paint once again, erasing most of Ilyasova's deficits playing next to him.
That together with their depth on the bench will account for most of the wins they get.
I don't like their long term prospect at all. They don't seem to be neither in position to get a really strong player through the draft that they really need, nor does their current lineup project to be more than a 8 seed in the East long term. It seems to be a financially motivated decision to semi tank and hope to score a restricted future allstar like Houston grabbed with James Harden or have luck through the draft. While next years 7-10 picks where they'll likely select unless extremely lucky, might have a star in their ranks, they could have easily tanked the year, developed their youth further and improved their odds.
But management doesn't appear to be willing to lose revenue to do that and have a higher chance to enjoy success on the court in the future which would lead to selling out their arena as well and raising ticket prices. That's not smart from a long term business and sports perspective in my eyes.
Just my 2 cents.
Very good preview about the Bucks. I can contribute to your question mark about Ersan.
Ersan had his consistency issues always but last year it was completely on Scott Skiles. He even talked cheap of Ersan about how he was playing well because it was his contract year blah blah. What kind of coach talks like that about his own player? It's not coincidence that after Jim Boylan came Ersan picked his game up. Boylan's first job was putting Ersan back to the first 5.
I don't know what would Ersan do with the new coach though.