The Jazz have found their magic formula to build.

[Schrödinger's Gerbil]

I’d never suggest that my method is perfect, only just one way of doing things. I honestly don’t think the Jazz are even that terrible right now. If they weren’t deliberately trying to lose, I think they could easily flip their position and at least make the play-in round.

They chose a stupid route for the past three seasons and have little to show for it. I don’t think it would take 7 years to claw back out of mediocrity and at least contend for the playoffs. IF they hit on their picks (one or more) then they should be that much further along.

They SHOULD have been in a position to trade out their expiring contracts and future picks for a disgruntled star or promising young player, but that window just never opened. My suggestion pushes it out 2 more years. Tank this season, get your pick and then start churning the roster and adding vets to support your young guys. . . or take a shot on getting 1 or 2 stars from teams that need to cut costs when you have new expiring contracts and (hopefully) some promising young players.

Well said.

 

[Schrödinger's Gerbil]

But ownership has had that attitude for decades. This is why they never made any striking moves really during any era of Jazz basketball. They have been content to let things ride as long as they could say they were banking on "off-season growth" and hand pads and gaining 15 lbs of muscle to reach the next level, they had no need to try any kind of swing for the fences move that might poke the fan-base in the eye. Some fans want the homestar runner type move, but most just want to have a fun night out and say they are Jazz fans and feel like they are part of a secondary cult in addition to their primary cult. The same fans that will tell people they don't do any shopping or spend any money on Sundays, until a vendor at work offers box seats to a meaningless mid-season Sunday game at the Delta Center, which they attend enthusiastically, stating well, THEY didn't spend the money, the vendor did, and just buying popcorn and a soda doesn't really count, right? This is why they have no impetus to push for anything big to get the franchise in a position to win it all, since it is all so safe and secure and profitable as it stands. Add into this the fact that the league benefits a ton more with a Dallas/Spurs/Sixers top 3 draft positions than they do a Jazz/Charlotte/Washington trio, and we will never get the top picks necessary to build from the draft for real. So the fan base is content having their Sunday night game for "free" and believing their fervent prayers were answered when we happen to hit on a mid- or late-first-round draft pick who bucks the trend, ala Mitchell and Gobert, which is likely to happen often enough to keep the spending fan-base in tow.

I'd argue instead that most fans want to watch competitive, meaningful basketball over an 82 games season with hope of making a deep post-season run. Basketball is an entertainment product, and people who consume it want to be entertained. It's true that the Jazz continue to sell out games, but for those of us buying tickets on the secondary market, the tickets in the last few years have generally sold at a significant discount over previous years. I went to several games last year with decent upper bowl seats (Row 7 and below) for as little as $15. There's no way in hell I would have paid the $40+ I paid in previous years for the same seats. I assume my experience was generalized among the secondary ticket market leading me to conclude that the sold out arena pro-tankers like to cite is a bit of a mirage. I imagine that TV and streaming ratings were down last year, though that's to be confirmed.

In any case, I'm guessing that championship or bust fans (i.e., those willing to endure 5-7 years of misery for a moderately elevated, though still small, chance of winning a title) comprise a relatively small slice of the fanbase, although 100% of the FO. I further suspect that I'm part of a large majority of Jazz fans that prioritize the entertainment aspect of fandom over any kind of title-winning obsession. We'd all like to win a title, but if we don't, we were entertained and life goes on.

 

[Schrödinger's Gerbil]

I'd argue instead that most fans want to watch competitive, meaningful basketball over an 82 games season with hope of making a deep post-season run. Basketball is an entertainment product, and people who consume it want to be entertained. It's true that the Jazz continue to sell out games, but for those of us buying tickets on the secondary market, the tickets in the last few years have generally sold at a significant discount over previous years. I went to several games last year with decent upper bowl seats (Row 7 and below) for as little as $15. There's no way in hell I would have paid the $40+ I paid in previous years for the same seats. I assume my experience was generalized among the secondary ticket market leading me to conclude that the sold out arena pro-tankers like to cite is a bit of a mirage. I imagine that TV and streaming ratings were down last year, though that's to be confirmed.

In any case, I'm guessing that championship or bust fans (i.e., those willing to endure 5-7 years of misery for a moderately elevated, though still small, chance of winning a title) comprise a relatively small slice of the fanbase, although 100% of the FO and perhaps the majority of posters on online fan forums. I further suspect that I'm part of a large majority of Jazz fans that prioritize the entertainment aspect of fandom over any kind of title-winning obsession. We'd all like to win a title, but if we don't, we were entertained and life goes on.

 

[Step-Back Lauri]

yep i have no interest in watching Collins, Sexton and Clarkson. At all I'm happy to watch young talented dudes struggle learning

I think some of them stays if they can't sell Lauri with the price Danny hopes for. They can't be trading all the other vets while keeping Lauri, bc it most probably means there's only a low change of his value going up on becoming season vs. increased chance of the value of that asset getting worse again... If he's there with rookie deal guys only.

 

[Sean]

It doesn't matter what we want, but what team ownership and the league wants. And what team ownership wants is to be fiscally solvent, and what the team ownership and the league want is to make as much money as possible. And the Jazz hit on that formula long ago, which is to tap into the cultish nature of the dominant social construct in the state, i.e. the mormons, and get the team a cult following, so the money flows, such as it is, regardless of the level of "success" the team reaches, at least from a fan perspective. So until fans stop coming to games, and the money starts to ebb, the team (and league in respect to the Jazz organization) will continue in the same vein: moderate success that keeps butts in the seats. They don't care about swinging for the fences, and the league doesn't care about providing the Jazz a path to better outcomes, as long as the money keep coming in, and it does so they don't.

Fans will stop coming. Especially now that the NHL is in the market.

Utah has been insanely consistent the last 40 years. In fact, prior to this season (and maybe still now - I haven't done the math), Utah was the 5th winningest franchise in NBA history (win percentage). The team has won a lot of ****ing games over the last 40 years and generally only have a few back-to-back down seasons.

Since 1984, Utah has missed the playoffs only 11 times and the most consecutive seasons they've gone without making the playoffs is four.

Utah is currently at three-straight seasons without a playoff. It'll likely then turn into four.

And that's where we kind of enter uncharted territory.

The difference is that there was significant progress between the second and fourth drought years last time - and a lot of optimism not just with Quin but Gobert and Hayward.

Utah went from 15th in the West to 11th and then 9th before getting back to the playoffs in 2017 (and winning the first-round vs the Clippers in seven).

What's the excitement level for Utah basketball going to be like if they miss the playoffs again over the next two or three seasons?

What if they turn into the Kings?

 

[LogGrad98]

Fans will stop coming. Especially now that the NHL is in the market.

Utah has been insanely consistent the last 40 years. In fact, prior to this season (and maybe still now - I haven't done the math), Utah was the 5th winningest franchise in NBA history (win percentage). The team has won a lot of ****ing games over the last 40 years and generally only have a few back-to-back down seasons.

Since 1984, Utah has missed the playoffs only 11 times and the most consecutive seasons they've gone without making the playoffs is four.

Utah is currently at three-straight seasons without a playoff. It'll likely then turn into four.

And that's where we kind of enter uncharted territory.

The difference is that there was significant progress between the second and fourth drought years last time - and a lot of optimism not just with Quin but Gobert and Hayward.

Utah went from 15th in the West to 11th and then 9th before getting back to the playoffs in 2017 (and winning the first-round vs the Clippers in seven).

What's the excitement level for Utah basketball going to be like if they miss the playoffs again over the next two or three seasons?

What if they turn into the Kings?

Fans don't have 40 year memories. It's more about what have you done for me lately. And lately, last 4 years let's say, they've sucked. And still put butts in the seats. Jazz fans are already attached in a cultish way. The team knows this so why would they care to rock the fiscal boat and go crazy trying to get anywhere but simply back to the playoffs? That's all that is needed to reset the fanbase and keep the butts in the seats.

 

[efukillar]

Who's the AJ you're talking about?

AJ Dybantsa

 

[Sean]

Fans don't have 40 year memories. It's more about what have you done for me lately. And lately, last 4 years let's say, they've sucked. And still put butts in the seats. Jazz fans are already attached in a cultish way. The team knows this so why would they care to rock the fiscal boat and go crazy trying to get anywhere but simply back to the playoffs? That's all that is needed to reset the fanbase and keep the butts in the seats.

You're misunderstanding the point entirely. I mentioned the 40 years because Utah has not had many stretches where they've tested being awful for multiple years. That is the point.

The fans' commitment to the franchise is predicated on the idea they will eventually turn into something special-ish. But as I outlined in my post, there's been few moments where the franchise has stunk for years like a lot of teams have.

If Utah fails at rebuilding, and continues to be a non-factor in the West for, say, the rest of this decade, yeah I'm confident the fans will stop coming - especially if the local alternative is a hockey team that has built itself into one of the stronger franchises in the NHL.

I think people overestimate the devotion of Utah fans. It's good, to be sure, but that's largely because Utah fans have been spoiled with consistent teams for 40 years. They have never had to experience the pains of rarely making the playoffs like the Kings or Charlotte have the last 20 years.

How's that fan base look if Utah makes the playoffs only once in the next 11 seasons?

I doubt it's anywhere as cultish.

That's the precarious position Utah is in as they navigate potentially a multi-year rebuild where there's little progress and momentum.

Compounding the issue, unlike last time, is now a direct competitor for the money of the community: the Utah Mammoth.