The Jazz in the new NBA

[mellow]

Growing up a Jazz fan in the Jerry Sloan led Stockton & Malone era I knew 2 things to be true about 3pt shots.

1-Inside shots are better to outside shots because you make more as you get closer to the basket.
2-Missed long shots result in fast breaks for the other team.


3pt shots were not a part of Jazz basketball, For example in 1990, Jerry Sloan's first full season as Jazz coachthe Jazz shot 458 3pt shots. Over the next 10 seasons the Jazz averaged 652 3pt attempts per year, and only broke 1,000 in the 95-96 season.

The first truism has been proven wrong many times over. Shooting .333 from 3 is better than shooting .49% on twos. Today a dunk or a three is the preferred shot, and everything else is less desirable. The 10-ft jump shots, a former staple of NBA basketball, is considered a bad shot. All the teams are coaching for threes now. I even saw a playoff stat that a Curry 3pt attempt was statistically better than a Bogut dunk (Bogut was shooting over 50% in this small sample size).

So with all the three balls flying does the second truism hold? Are opponents getting more rebounds and fast breaks?

Not according to this guy:

Alvaro Martin @AlvaroNBAMartin
Says @ESPNStatsInfo that 12.3% of missed paint shots produce FB points for opponents, versus 8.7% of mid-range twos and just 7.7% of threes.


Opponents get 5% fewer fast break points when the team takes a three?

Okay, I can see that, with a couple of guys back the fast breaks should be reduced, But do the opponents get more rebounds when the team takes a three? IN other words, does the team's chances for offensive rebounds decrease? NO!

Alvaro Martin @AlvaroNBAMartin
Says @ESPNStatsInfo that on average, NBA teams grab 18.97% of missed two-pointers as offensive boards, versus 18.81% of missed 3s. Identical

Just more stats to demonstrate the way the game is going, and why the Jazz are talking about finding more shooters.

In the last 6 seasons (including a season and a half with Jerry) the Jazz average 1374 3pt attempts per game (adjusted for the lockout season). Last year they shot an incredible 1781 3pt shots, some 200 more than the previous Jazz record and still they only ranked 17th in the league and were some 50 shots below average. The four conference finalist teams averaged 2,326 3pt attempts last season.

Dennis O'Lindsey loves the analytics. More 3s are coming. I can't wait to see the Jazz this fall after Lindsey has another summer to assemble players that fit Quins new system.

 

[infection]

Though I wished we had shot more threes (particularly Hornacek, Korver, Memo, etc.), my biggest beef was with us not even acknowledging the 3pt line on defense and giving a green light. Forget the analytics, even the psychology of a team coming and burying back-to-back threes on you is a huge momentum shift.

 

[Stoked]

That's very interesting. Thanks for sharing it.

 

[Stifle Tower]

I think it's really the corner 3's that have revolutionized the game. Back in Jerry's hey days with Malone/Stockton, it was usually the guards taking three's, not the SF's and certainly not the PF's. Sure, there were exceptions, but most 3's were taken from top of the arc, not the corners. When did we ever hear about a "stretch-4?" Players have certainly gotten more accurate from 3PT land, especially the forwards.

Will the Jazz ever be among the league leaders? I doubt it. Gobert and Favors will be cornerstones of the team and neither shoots 3's. But that's ok. Look at the stats and you'll see SA was more balanced, finishing 15th in attempted 3's while Philadelphia took the 6th most. I think what has to disappear - and this is what Quin stresses - are the long 2's. 10-ft jumpers aren't bad, it's those 20-ft shots. If you're going to take a shot like that, just step back and make it a 3! And the uncontested shot, whether a 3PT'er or from around 10-15 ft, is ALWAYS better than a contested shot. I still remember him early on citing the 7% difference between a contested and uncontested shot.

 

[Cappy_Smurf]

Though I wished we had shot more threes (particularly Hornacek, Korver, Memo, etc.), my biggest beef was with us not even acknowledging the 3pt line on defense and giving a green light. Forget the analytics, even the psychology of a team coming and burying back-to-back threes on you is a huge momentum shift.

Petty sure this was Deron Williams fault somehow, since Jerry was infallible.

 

[Hotdog]

Though I wished we had shot more threes (particularly Hornacek, Korver, Memo, etc.), my biggest beef was with us not even acknowledging the 3pt line on defense and giving a green light. Forget the analytics, even the psychology of a team coming and burying back-to-back threes on you is a huge momentum shift.

This true. I hated that we wouldn't guard the 3. But we couldn't or wouldn't guard the rim either. It's kinds hard to guard the 3 if you can't guard the rim.

The Boozer/Memo Era just plain ed sucked in terms of defense. It was bad all around.