The last game of the season

[jazznik]

In the last game of the season the Jazz play the Timberwolves, which brings some interesting choices. There is a very good chance that the win by the Jazz would move them up in the standings and at the same time bring the Wolves down and vice versa. What would you prefer, a win or a loss? Keep in mind that the Jazz would have a lot of opportunities to manufacture the win or the loss by selectively sitting their key players (the Wolves would almost certainly want to win if it improves their position in the play-in or playoffs).

To make the comparison easier I took the current standings of the Jazz and the Wolves as a guide for the repercussions of that game.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Depends on the standings at the time.

 

[HermanG]

If I felt like that game would be make or break for their playoffs (meaning I think they may get through from the play-ins), I'd probably want to win. Wolves pick being in the lottery and getting lucky is far superior to all other outcomes, that I'm willing to give up few percentages.

Us going from 4th to 5th = -2.7% lotto balls -1 spot on pick floor
Wolves being 12th vs in the playoffs = +1.5% lotto balls, but that 1.5% hitting gets you two very high picks +3 on the likely floor of their pick (unless the 13th and/or 14th seed get lucky in the lottery)

 

[FrenchJazzFa]

We will get Flagg through Minny pick so it does not matter

 

[SoberasHotRod]

The combined odds if the Jazz have the 5th and 12th best odds to land a top 4 pick is 49.3% vs 48.1% if the Jazz have the 4th pick and no other lottery pick.

Thanks for making me do math today.

 

[fishonjazz]

The combined odds if the Jazz have the 5th and 12th best odds to land a top 4 pick is 49.3% vs 48.1% if the Jazz have the 4th pick and no other lottery pick.

Thanks for making me do math today.

You just provided me with my answer to this poll.

 

[framer]

Also, the Wolves missing the play in entirely this year raises the value of the rest of the picks they owe us.

 

[Ron Mexico]

Y'all getting your hopes up too much. Chances are wolves pull it together and/or make moves to improve. This sounds a lot like two years ago chatter about them on this board. But, I'll try to keep to the thread with an answer. I'll choose Jazz winning in that scenario.

 

[jazznik]

Y'all getting your hopes up too much. Chances are wolves pull it together and/or make moves to improve. This sounds a lot like two years ago chatter about them on this board. But, I'll try to keep to the thread with an answer. I'll choose Jazz winning in that scenario.

I am not sure it is that simple. The two best (offensive) players on the Wolves, Ant and Randle, have been playing good by their standards: and it is unlikely that they can suddenly get markedly better. It's their role players who pull them down: two of them are clearly aging and two more appear to have simply regressed to their respective means.

Also, the Wolves got to their current 8-9 record in the easy schedule stretch. Their next 8 games are brutal: the Warriors (3), Clippers (2), Lakers, Kings, Knicks. They can easily end up with the 10-15 or 11-14 record after it, far behind the playoff-bound teams.

 

[HermanG]

I am not sure it is that simple. The two best (offensive) players on the Wolves, Ant and Randle, have been playing good by their standards: and it is unlikely that they can suddenly get markedly better. It's their role players who pull them down: two of them are clearly aging and two more appear to have simply regressed to their respective means.

Also, the Wolves got to their current 8-9 record in the easy schedule stretch. Their next 8 games are brutal: the Warriors (3), Clippers (2), Lakers, Kings, Knicks. They can easily end up with the 10-15 or 11-14 record after it, far behind the playoff-bound teams.

Actually I would say both have been hot. Ant is shooting 3s like Steph and Randle is also above his career averages in pretty much everything but rebounds and is having the 2nd best eFG% season of his career thus far.

The chemistry will improve, but I feel like their non-Gobert minutes are not gonna be as good as they used to be due to Randle being near zero as a rim protector. KAT wasnt great either, but at least he was a true 7 footer. Their spacing also wont be as good as it was with KAT even after they gel. I also dont think Rudy and Randle are a good fit basketball-wise unless Randle learns how to play 2-man game effectively with him (assuming he even wants to learn that).

Ant has never really built a good offensive chemistry or 2-man game with Rudy. I dont know if its just that his style is to kick it out rather than feeding the big. Last season KAT had 189 total assists 66 of which went to Rudy (over 33%), and Ant had 405 total assists but only 47 went to Rudy (11%). Your highest usage player making just 11% of his assists to the primary center feels very low.

 

[Udidthizz]

Actually I would say both have been hot. Ant is shooting 3s like Steph and Randle is also above his career averages in pretty much everything but rebounds and is having the 2nd best eFG% season of his career thus far.

The chemistry will improve, but I feel like their non-Gobert minutes are not gonna be as good as they used to be due to Randle being near zero as a rim protector. KAT wasnt great either, but at least he was a true 7 footer. Their spacing also wont be as good as it was with KAT even after they gel. I also dont think Rudy and Randle are a good fit basketball-wise unless Randle learns how to play 2-man game effectively with him (assuming he even wants to learn that).

Ant has never really built a good offensive chemistry or 2-man game with Rudy. I dont know if its just that his style is to kick it out rather than feeding the big. Last season KAT had 189 total assists 66 of which went to Rudy (over 33%), and Ant had 405 total assists but only 47 went to Rudy (11%). Your highest usage player making just 11% of his assists to the primary center feels very low.

Rudy had 2 FGA last night against the Kings. The game before he had 3. The 2 games before that 5 and 5. He barely seems to be involved in the offense anymore. At least not as a scoring option.

 

[Hedda Gambler]

The combined odds if the Jazz have the 5th and 12th best odds to land a top 4 pick is 49.3% vs 48.1% if the Jazz have the 4th pick and no other lottery pick.

Thanks for making me do math today.

The first scenario also involves a very small possibility of us getting two top four picks, which is not possible in the second scenario.