The off-season strategies (Jazz have limited options)

[Saint Cy of JFC]

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Not great if that’s what ends up passing. Lots of teams would be in the tax... we likely couldn’t use full MLE and keep Clarkson because we’d be close or over the apron. Maybe waive and stretch Davis. I think the players are trying to hang the early start time over the owners heads to get a higher number... even if it is artificially inflated.

 

[LoPo]

Where I speculated it would be. Flat cap. Limits our abilities to keep Clarkson AND bring in the full MLE and other exceptions while staying under the luxury. Without additions, we are just a middle of the pack West team.

If we extend Don and Rudy, we are a luxury team no doubt for 21-22. Even with the new owner, we don't need to be a repeat luxury offender.

So, we have to shed Ed Davis for next to nothing in return if we want to keep JC and spend where we need. If we stretch him, that costs us $1.7 the next three years. Not sure if that $3.4 in savings for this year would be enough.


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[Handlogten's Heros]

Where I speculated it would be. Flat cap. Limits our abilities to keep Clarkson AND bring in the full MLE and other exceptions while staying under the luxury. Without additions, we are just a middle of the pack West team.

If we extend Don and Rudy, we are a luxury team no doubt for 21-22. Even with the new owner, we don't need to be a repeat luxury offender.

So, we have to shed Ed Davis for next to nothing in return if we want to keep JC and spend where we need. If we stretch him, that costs us $1.7 the next three years. Not sure if that $3.4 in savings for this year would be enough.


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That may be where it stays but the argument from the players side is if you can artificially make it 109M why not artificially push it to 112 or 115 and give teams some room under the cap to spend. Holding the luxury tax line will lead to some catastrophic tax bills and will really freeze up the FA market and trades this offseason. I think if that were to happen I would advise the Jazz to stay under the tax this summer and collect that payment because it could be a huge chunk of money. Plan to jump into the tax next year and make moves that way.

 

[LoPo]

That may be where it stays but the argument from the players side is if you can artificially make it 109M why not artificially push it to 112 or 115 and give teams some room under the cap to spend. Holding the luxury tax line will lead to some catastrophic tax bills and will really freeze up the FA market and trades this offseason. I think if that were to happen I would advise the Jazz to stay under the tax this summer and collect that payment because it could be a huge chunk of money. Plan to jump into the tax next year and make moves that way.

Of course the NBAPA will push to increase that number, but the NBA doesn't have to. Every team in the NBA made their own decisions to sign or trade for players. There was never a guarantee that the cap would go up. The latest CBA has mechanisms in place for a team to avoid the luxury. They can waive/stretch players which many teams have already done in the past (Noah, Deng, etc., etc.).

If the NBA is shedding 10 games per team and doing other things due to COVID, they are completely justified in keeping the cap the same or raising it marginally. It has to act on behalf of it's own self interest. The financial losses are massive and the league has to do what it can to keep every franchise viable.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I mean the luxury tax bill for Philly and GS might be around $100M on its own. Boston may end up with a decent bill... Denver would be at the tax and probably a few others... so I guess it may end up being a 4-5M distribution check but not sure I'd advise an new owner to pay an extra 7-8 M to get a good backup center and pay a tax bill of 5-10M and miss out on a 5M distribution check in what will be a duct tape placeholder of a season.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Of course the NBAPA will push to increase that number, but the NBA doesn't have to. Every team in the NBA made their own decisions to sign or trade for players. There was never a guarantee that the cap would go up. The latest CBA has mechanisms in place for a team to avoid the luxury. They can waive/stretch players which many teams have already done in the past (Noah, Deng, etc., etc.).

If the NBA is shedding 10 games per team and doing other things due to COVID, they are completely justified in keeping the cap the same or raising it marginally. It has to act on behalf of it's own self interest. The financial losses are massive and the league has to do what it can to keep every franchise viable.

Right but they also want the players to come in early... all the huffy puffy "we will not be rushed" talk reminds me of when LeBron walked out of the players meeting saying they should leave the bubble. I think it is all negotiation tactics. I expect there to be some relief... technically the cap should be like $90M based on the revenue but they prop it up by having a higher escrow... they can prop it up a little more... they eventually get to their split one way or another. A good chunk of the league are free agents each year so they are likely getting some pretty grim feedback from their agents... so a push to go higher may come.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The player would have to be damn good for me to use the full MLE on him... assuming that we bring back Clarkson around $10M... like pretty much Christian Wood is the only guy I'd spend it on. (Jerami Grant, Joe Harris, etc will all get north of 12M)

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Brooklyn's tax bill would also end up being $50M or higher. So there may be like $150M - 200M in that treasure chest. So maybe 6-8M for each non-tax team.

 

[LoPo]

I mean the luxury tax bill for Philly and GS might be around $100M on its own. Boston may end up with a decent bill... Denver would be at the tax and probably a few others... so I guess it may end up being a 4-5M distribution check but not sure I'd advise an new owner to pay an extra 7-8 M to get a good backup center and pay a tax bill of 5-10M and miss out on a 5M distribution check in what will be a duct tape placeholder of a season.

I think the league is very wise to stay at the same number as last year. It sends a very strong message that we are hurting, but we're not taking the cap down. If they go up, they send a message that they are doing well. Staying put is key.

I don't feel for Philly. They were a luxury team regardless this upcoming season. Now, they are going to have to sell off Horford or Tobias.

Other teams will be squeezed, but like I said before, teams have options. When I break this down, I see 5-6 teams who look to be in luxury trouble: https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/
Philly
Brooklyn
Boston
GS
Houston
Milwaukee

That's not a lot.

 

[LoPo]

Brooklyn's tax bill would also end up being $50M or higher. So there may be like $150M - 200M in that treasure chest. So maybe 6-8M for each non-tax team.

These discussions only reinforce my resolve to move on from Rudy. Brooklyn has two players making above $17 million yet they are in salary cap hell. Nobody even knows if they are a contender. If we pay Rudy $35, we will regret it. Big time regret it.

COVID will be around to hurt the finances for the 21-22 as well. Even when there is a vaccine, people will be hesitant to go out in crowded stadiums. Protocol will change. It will take time to adjust.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think the league is very wise to stay at the same number as last year. It sends a very strong message that we are hurting, but we're not taking the cap down. If they go up, they send a message that they are doing well. Staying put is key.

I don't feel for Philly. They were a luxury team regardless this upcoming season. Now, they are going to have to sell off Horford or Tobias.

Other teams will be squeezed, but like I said before, teams have options. When I break this down, I see 5-6 teams who look to be in luxury trouble: https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/
Philly
Brooklyn
Boston
GS
Houston
Milwaukee

That's not a lot.

Lakers likely too as AD KCP Rondo will all be getting raises. It doesn't just hurt the tax teams... it hurts the entire market as there won't be teams willing to spend on even the MLE deals either. Maybe those guys take one year deals... maybe NY, Det, OKC make a killing taking on salary dump trades or facilitating deals.

I think both the players and owners would have motivation to artificially bump up the cap... the messaging stuff you stated really doesn't make sense. People who look at the cap will also know that there is an escrow allowance and it is propped up, but most fans won't look at the cap as a sign the league is healthy. Watching contenders dump good players to avoid the tax would be a much worse message about how the league is doing... especially if it was a small market like Milwaukee.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

These discussions only reinforce my resolve to move on from Rudy. Brooklyn has two players making above $17 million yet they are in salary cap hell. Nobody even knows if they are a contender. If we pay Rudy $35, we will regret it. Big time regret it.

COVID will be around to hurt the finances for the 21-22 as well. Even when there is a vaccine, people will be hesitant to go out in crowded stadiums. Protocol will change. It will take time to adjust.

I really don't think Ryan will come in and trade one of our all-stars for parts (that's what we'd get). A Rudy trade was more likely before the ownership news imo.

 

[LoPo]

Lakers likely too as AD KCP Rondo will all be getting raises. It doesn't just hurt the tax teams... it hurts the entire market as there won't be teams willing to spend on even the MLE deals either. Maybe those guys take one year deals... maybe NY, Det, OKC make a killing taking on salary dump trades or facilitating deals.

I think both the players and owners would have motivation to artificially bump up the cap... the messaging stuff you stated really doesn't make sense. People who look at the cap will also know that there is an escrow allowance and it is propped up, but most fans won't look at the cap as a sign the league is healthy. Watching contenders dump good players to avoid the tax would be a much worse message about how the league is doing... especially if it was a small market like Milwaukee.

The players hurt, but not the teams. The teams have to stay afloat. They have to stay profitable but at least even. We are talking about 6-8 teams out of 30 who are in luxury hell. There are also a handful of teams with loads of cap space (Detroit, NY, Atlanta, etc.). Some of these big spenders might have to make some tough decisions. Does Philly send some picks and a young player in order to dump Horford? Do the Lakers let KCP walk and sign a couple older, cheaper vets?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

there are like two free agents in the MLE range that I would give the full MLE to... De'Anthony Melton and Christian Wood.

There are other guys I like but would not go full MLE for them. When it comes to backup center I think you honestly can get someone at the minimum or you could get a guy like Baynes at the BAE... with a cap of 109 the bigs will get squeezed.

 

[LoPo]

I really don't think Ryan will come in and trade one of our all-stars for parts (that's what we'd get). A Rudy trade was more likely before the ownership news imo.

Hard to tell. He's probably a genius in his own right. Might be big into analytics. He might understand that the there is a strong likelihood that Rudy won't live up to a $35+ per year contract as an aging big man because few if any ever do. He might want to build the franchise around Don.

If he re-signs Rudy, he's investing $150+ into Rudy for his first 5 years as the Jazz owner (this coming season plus a likely 4 year extension). On top of that, he's also investing 4 years and close to $100 million into Don starting next year. He would have almost zero ability to add to the roster in the first few seasons as an owner. And this roster is not a contender.

I don't think he owes us anything. He doesn't owe Rudy anything. He needs to have a vision and follow that vision.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Hard to tell. He's probably a genius in his own right. Might be big into analytics. He might understand that the there is a strong likelihood that Rudy won't live up to a $35+ per year contract as an aging big man because few if any ever do. He might want to build the franchise around Don.

If he re-signs Rudy, he's investing $150+ into Rudy for his first 5 years as the Jazz owner (this coming season plus a likely 4 year extension). On top of that, he's also investing 4 years and close to $100 million into Don starting next year. He would have almost zero ability to add to the roster in the first few seasons as an owner. And this roster is not a contender.

I don't think he owes us anything. He doesn't owe Rudy anything. He needs to have a vision and follow that vision.

I think he'd have to be blown away by an offer or Rudy would have to reject his extension. I don't think either is likely. You could always move a guy later as long as he stays healthy.

The order of operations regarding roster moves is:

- tweak around the edges and make your picks and see what is there. If that doesn't work then...
- Investigate a Conley trade. If that doesn't work then...
- Bigger move including Rudy

The issue is really the Conley trade is hard to execute in season. I think that would be the biggest way to have a huge impact.

 

[LoPo]

I think he'd have to be blown away by an offer or Rudy would have to reject his extension. I don't think either is likely. You could always move a guy later as long as he stays healthy.

The order of operations regarding roster moves is:

- tweak around the edges and make your picks and see what is there. If that doesn't work then...
- Investigate a Conley trade. If that doesn't work then...
- Bigger move including Rudy

The issue is really the Conley trade is hard to execute in season. I think that would be the biggest way to have a huge impact.

Depending on the number, he might think its bad business. Once he signs Rudy to that deal, he's tied to him 4-5 more years. Rudy either lives up to his deal or he becomes a version of Tobias Harris.


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