The off-season strategies (Jazz have limited options)


LoPo

Well-Known Member
Thad Young makes $13.5 next season and $14.1 for 21-22. His contract for 21-22 isn't guaranteed, but he is owed $6 million if we let him walk.

Thad isn't worth the contract. If he didn't have that 21-22 number, maybe I could be convinced to gamble on him for next season while we aren't in cap hell.

We should pursue other options.

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Handlogten's Heros

Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
Thad Young makes $13.5 next season and $14.1 for 21-22. His contract for 21-22 isn't guaranteed, but he is owed $6 million if we let him walk.

Thad isn't worth the contract. If he didn't have that 21-22 number, maybe I could be convinced to gamble on him for next season while we aren't in cap hell.

We should pursue other options.

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That’s not how I see it. We give up 8.5M in essentially dead salary (Tb isn’t dead but he could be replaced with a minimum guy). So it isn’t 2/27... it’s 2/20 and it keeps us below what I think the tax will be and will allow us use exceptions on other needs.

He’s been very durable but if a terrible injury happened you could waive him and take a small hit... could even stretch it if you needed to.

He may not be an every night backup center but you bet your sweet *** he’d be doing it in the playoffs. He’s a piece that would allow you to shift up and down in size. Against the lakers for instance he can spend time on LeBron and then be the backup against Morris.

We lack disrupters, we lack roster versatility, we lack guys that are able to guard big wings, we lack guys that are ready to play that have traditional PF size... I get that he isn’t a deadeye shooter but he tics a lot of boxes. If he was a deadeye shooter he’d be making a hell of a lot more and wouldn’t be gettable.
 

kabenac

Well-Known Member
Kris Dunn? (Although "meh" would be a charitable description of his offense, and it's not entirely clear yet if he'll be available.) But can't get much better defensively.
I would love to have Kris Dunn. He can guard the 1 or 2 and will likely be on the All-Defensive team at some point. He'd be like Rubio with defense.
 

LoPo

Well-Known Member
That’s not how I see it. We give up 8.5M in essentially dead salary (Tb isn’t dead but he could be replaced with a minimum guy). So it isn’t 2/27... it’s 2/20 and it keeps us below what I think the tax will be and will allow us use exceptions on other needs.

He’s been very durable but if a terrible injury happened you could waive him and take a small hit... could even stretch it if you needed to.

He may not be an every night backup center but you bet your sweet *** he’d be doing it in the playoffs. He’s a piece that would allow you to shift up and down in size. Against the lakers for instance he can spend time on LeBron and then be the backup against Morris.

We lack disrupters, we lack roster versatility, we lack guys that are able to guard big wings, we lack guys that are ready to play that have traditional PF size... I get that he isn’t a deadeye shooter but he tics a lot of boxes. If he was a deadeye shooter he’d be making a hell of a lot more and wouldn’t be gettable.
For next year, it's a decent deal. However, by adding that much more in salary, there's no way to keep Clarkson AND use the full MLE. In 21-22 when Gobert and Don go to their extensions, we are way over the luxury tax that season.

I think wiser options would be...

Trevor Ariza - he makes $1.5 less than Thad and he's on the last year of his deal. Lillard loves Ed Davis.

Kelly Olynyk - he's looked great in the finals. He's on an expiring deal making less than Thad. Maybe Miami looks to shed some salary so they can re-sign Crowder, Dragic and others.

Mario Hezojna - Like I said, Lillard loves Ed Davis. This trade isn't sexy, but it sheds $3 million. By shedding a little, we can keep Clarkson, use the full MLE AND use the BAE ($3.6) without going over the luxury. Hezonja isn't fantastic, but he's an upgrade to GLeaguers Quin won't play.
 

Hekate

Well-Known Member
This is a pretty ****** comparison. They are completely different players. Thad wasn’t great inside 3 feet this year but 65% on his career and he has some weirdly solid midrange stuff that can be useful. He had Zach Lavine and coby white setting him up last year.

He’s been a consistently good defender getting a ton of deflections and steals through this career. Ed has one year where he rated out as a good defender but has basically been an offensive rebounder and that’s about it.

Totally fine is people disagree but let’s not throw that completely ****** comp out k.
I wasn't thinking about role when I made the comparison, just the expectations and his output.

Thad had the worst %FG around the rim including guards for most of the season. He absolutely sucks at it. What we need is more pressure on the rim offensively, Rudy is the only consistent threat that gravitates defenders towards the rim.

Defensively, he always had good fundamentals. Gets deflections, plays the passing lanes without gambling and switches well but he did all of those playing PF. Mostly with defensive studs at centers like Hibbert and Turner. He is not that mobile to contest or deflect and recover without help. If you play him center, we would need to change our rotation players for perimeter defenders to make use of his skills. And on offense we would need shot creators while we stick him to the weakside corner.

I think as a 4, Morgan gives what he does, minus the shooting but that could improve, for a much better price.

Btw, I loved him in Indy and was probably suggesting signing him last year. I defintely wanted to see him with Jazz in earlier seasons.
 

Handlogten's Heros

Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
For next year, it's a decent deal. However, by adding that much more in salary, there's no way to keep Clarkson AND use the full MLE. In 21-22 when Gobert and Don go to their extensions, we are way over the luxury tax that season.

I think wiser options would be...

Trevor Ariza - he makes $1.5 less than Thad and he's on the last year of his deal. Lillard loves Ed Davis.

Kelly Olynyk - he's looked great in the finals. He's on an expiring deal making less than Thad. Maybe Miami looks to shed some salary so they can re-sign Crowder, Dragic and others.

Mario Hezojna - Like I said, Lillard loves Ed Davis. This trade isn't sexy, but it sheds $3 million. By shedding a little, we can keep Clarkson, use the full MLE AND use the BAE ($3.6) without going over the luxury. Hezonja isn't fantastic, but he's an upgrade to GLeaguers Quin won't play.
Well Ariza is only 1.8M guaranteed... so if they want to save they will waive him... he was also starting and playing well for them so I doubt Dame prefers his homey to Ariza.

I’m sure Pat ****ing Riley will take a step back and save a few bucks to get two useless pieces for a piece that’s been very reliable. They likely can keep everything together for a year without going into the tax and still keep space open for Greek Freak. Pat cuts salary on ****** players not good players and his assistant GM is a ****ing master. They will make it work no doubt.

So LoPosided trades are much more wise.... but there is a reason they won’t happen.

Mario is replacement value or worse and I don’t know that we need to offload Ed to use the BAE. I also need to know what we are doing with the BAE and MLE before saying they are better options.
 

LoPo

Well-Known Member
Well Ariza is only 1.8M guaranteed... so if they want to save they will waive him... he was also starting and playing well for them so I doubt Dame prefers his homey to Ariza.

I’m sure Pat ****ing Riley will take a step back and save a few bucks to get two useless pieces for a piece that’s been very reliable. They likely can keep everything together for a year without going into the tax and still keep space open for Greek Freak. Pat cuts salary on ****** players not good players and his assistant GM is a ****ing master. They will make it work no doubt.

So LoPosided trades are much more wise.... but there is a reason they won’t happen.

Mario is replacement value or worse and I don’t know that we need to offload Ed to use the BAE. I also need to know what we are doing with the BAE and MLE before saying they are better options.
Look, I know you are invested in this Thad idea, but no reason to take shots.

Thad is overpaid and old. We don't need to be paying $30 million for two bench guys (Joe and Thad) when we hit 21-22. That's bad business.

Olynyk only played in the Finals because Bam was hurt and Leonard needed help. Before the finals, Olynyk only played about 12mpg in the prior three rounds and mainly just garbage time. He only played 12 minutes last night for example. Everybody knows Miami wants to position themselves for a run at Giannis in 2021. Do they trade Olynyk to shed space to add a player this summer that Giannis might want to play with? We don't know.

Ariza for Ed Davis makes sense because Portland would rather pay Ed Davis $5 million to be there than throw $1.8 million out the window by waiving Ariza. More than likely, Portland keeps Ariza, but nobody really knows anything. This is all speculation.

The math will tell you that we can't keep everybody, re-sign Clarkson to $10 million, use the entire MLE ($9.5+) and use the BAE ($3.6) while staying under the luxury tax (when all indications are that the cap numbers will probably be the same as last year). Trading Ed for Hezonja saves us $3 million while giving us a guy Quin might actually play.
 

Handlogten's Heros

Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
I wasn't thinking about role when I made the comparison, just the expectations and his output.

Thad had the worst %FG around the rim including guards for most of the season. He absolutely sucks at it. What we need is more pressure on the rim offensively, Rudy is the only consistent threat that gravitates defenders towards the rim.

Defensively, he always had good fundamentals. Gets deflections, plays the passing lanes without gambling and switches well but he did all of those playing PF. Mostly with defensive studs at centers like Hibbert and Turner. He is not that mobile to contest or deflect and recover without help. If you play him center, we would need to change our rotation players for perimeter defenders to make use of his skills. And on offense we would need shot creators while we stick him to the weakside corner.

I think as a 4, Morgan gives what he does, minus the shooting but that could improve, for a much better price.

Btw, I loved him in Indy and was probably suggesting signing him last year. I defintely wanted to see him with Jazz in earlier seasons.
Some of what you are saying is valid. He struggled finishing this year, but was well below his career average... again he played with Zach Lavine and Coby White the majority of his minutes. I would expect him to come up on that.

He never played with Hibbert... he has consistently been near the top of the league in deflections and steals his whole career... that **** ain't because he played with Myles Turner for a couple years or because of Jim Boylan's scheme (though he had a slight uptick this year because of it).

I'm vice president of the Juwan Morgan fan club... he is good positionally and has good hands... he is not nearly as disruptive as Thad. We didn't try him really so we don't know... and we need some certainty.

We have creators in the second unit, so he can be the screen and roll man. When he plays with Rudy he sits in the corner... hit 35 and 36% of his corner threes last two seasons.

In the second unit we can't play our drop big base defense... we just can't. Even a great rim protector like Favs struggled with it for a few years. We need to have contrasting styles too... this is a big changeup. Our FG% defense is good and lets a lot of ****** teams beat themselves. If we want to be a contender we need different styles and to put some pressure on the ball. If Thad is on the center when they go screen and roll he is involved in the play and can disrupt the passing lane as well and he can switch comfortably. And yes I agree we need different personnel on the second unit... if we added a guy like Bazemore you now have Joe, JC, Thad, Baze... that's enough creation and you have a lot of guys that get deflections steals etc. Pressuring some passes and the ball will lead to some layups... but not many more than TB allows... plus with his stupid foul rate we give up free throws which are the worse PPP than a shot in the paint.

I think you still sign a minimum level center (John Henson, Ian Mahimi, Isiah Hartenstein, etc) and certain nights you can't play Thad at the 5 and he's just the backup 4.

It is definitely out of the box thinking... and there are reasons things stay in the box for sure. I just think it'd be dumb to give Favs the full MLE and play the same base system, have no positional flexibility, and have no roster variance. Unless you are ****ing transcendent at what you do then you have to have roster flexibility and different styles in your bag. I'd prefer to have a guy like Covington, but Thad can do a poor man's job at that.
 

Handlogten's Heros

Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
Look, I know you are invested in this Thad idea, but no reason to take shots.

Thad is overpaid and old. We don't need to be paying $30 million for two bench guys (Joe and Thad) when we hit 21-22. That's bad business.

Olynyk only played in the Finals because Bam was hurt and Leonard needed help. Before the finals, Olynyk only played about 12mpg in the prior three rounds and mainly just garbage time. He only played 12 minutes last night for example. Everybody knows Miami wants to position themselves for a run at Giannis in 2021. Do they trade Olynyk to shed space to add a player this summer that Giannis might want to play with? We don't know.

Ariza for Ed Davis makes sense because Portland would rather pay Ed Davis $5 million to be there than throw $1.8 million out the window by waiving Ariza. More than likely, Portland keeps Ariza, but nobody really knows anything. This is all speculation.

The math will tell you that we can't keep everybody, re-sign Clarkson to $10 million, use the entire MLE ($9.5+) and use the BAE ($3.6) while staying under the luxury tax (when all indications are that the cap numbers will probably be the same as last year). Trading Ed for Hezonja saves us $3 million while giving us a guy Quin might actually play.
I get what you are saying and the shot is a bit of a joke... but honestly you think the Heat would give up KO to save a few million bucks when they can just pay the tax to keep it together... and likely don't need to pay the tax. Leonard has hardly played and is likely out of town next year. KO plays 20 minutes a night and likely picks up more time. They can't add any additional salary if they hope to sign Giannis so a long term piece ain't happening.

It would not be Ed for Trevor straight up... it would have to be Ed plus TB... so do they want to pay Ariza 12.8M or 8.5M to get Dame's homey? Or do they want to pay 1.8M for nothing... but save $11M. Ed would be third on that three choice list and it ain't close.

Ed for Mario is whatevs... I'd waive the eff out of Mario and move on though. If we can do that then do it yesterday.

I also think if we are really going to be a contender we will have to pay the tax at some point. Big/glamour markets have too many built in advantages and you can't overcome that on a budget. I get the concern though because we traditionally have not been willing to go there.
 

Handlogten's Heros

Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
I'm also concerned that there isn't a guy out there worth the full MLE and that money could be worse than what Thad gets. Who are the candidates for the MLE? I'm asking genuinely and not as a gotcha.
 

Handlogten's Heros

Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
We were last in the league in deflections, loose balls recovered, and near last in steals. Whatever we add needs to add some pressure on offenses.
 

LoPo

Well-Known Member
I get what you are saying and the shot is a bit of a joke... but honestly you think the Heat would give up KO to save a few million bucks when they can just pay the tax to keep it together... and likely don't need to pay the tax. Leonard has hardly played and is likely out of town next year. KO plays 20 minutes a night and likely picks up more time. They can't add any additional salary if they hope to sign Giannis so a long term piece ain't happening.

It would not be Ed for Trevor straight up... it would have to be Ed plus TB... so do they want to pay Ariza 12.8M or 8.5M to get Dame's homey? Or do they want to pay 1.8M for nothing... but save $11M. Ed would be third on that three choice list and it ain't close.

Ed for Mario is whatevs... I'd waive the eff out of Mario and move on though. If we can do that then do it yesterday.

I also think if we are really going to be a contender we will have to pay the tax at some point. Big/glamour markets have too many built in advantages and you can't overcome that on a budget. I get the concern though because we traditionally have not been willing to go there.
I think we are looking at paying the tax in 21-22. Don's extension+Rudy's extention+Joe+Royce+Clarkson maybe+Bojan+anything else we add. Rudy and Don alone could be $60+. Since we are likely in the tax area in 21-22, I see no reason to go barely over for the upcoming season. Going into the tax one time is okay. Repeater tax has to be avoided. I don't think our FO goes there.

Olynyk is unlikely, but worth the question. Who knows what Miami does, but it will be aggressive. I wouldn't be shocked if they pursued somebody like Beal this summer and then Giannis next summer.

Ariza is also unlikely, but he's a good fit for what we need.

Ed Davis for Hezonja makes perfect sense for both teams honestly. It keeps Lillard happy and gives them a much needed extra big since Collins is always hurt. For us, we save money and we shouldn't have to use a pick to get this done. Hezonja upgrades our bench even if only marginally.
 

Handlogten's Heros

Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
I think we are looking at paying the tax in 21-22. Don's extension+Rudy's extention+Joe+Royce+Clarkson maybe+Bojan+anything else we add. Rudy and Don alone could be $60+. Since we are likely in the tax area in 21-22, I see no reason to go barely over for the upcoming season. Going into the tax one time is okay. Repeater tax has to be avoided. I don't think our FO goes there.

Olynyk is unlikely, but worth the question. Who knows what Miami does, but it will be aggressive. I wouldn't be shocked if they pursued somebody like Beal this summer and then Giannis next summer.

Ariza is also unlikely, but he's a good fit for what we need.

Ed Davis for Hezonja makes perfect sense for both teams honestly. It keeps Lillard happy and gives them a much needed extra big since Collins is always hurt. For us, we save money and we shouldn't have to use a pick to get this done. Hezonja upgrades our bench even if only marginally.
Ed would fit into a trade exception they have. If we want to get some room under the cap we could offer Ed plus 3.5M in cash to just take him. Basically like them getting him for the minimum. They will operate over the cap but really aren't in danger of going into the tax.

That move just doesn't make us any better unless we sign someone with our exceptions. The guys I'm seeing at the full MLE type level are not guys I love. I'd almost rather shop for value at a lower level using part of the MLE. Say you offer Shaq Harrison a 4 year 12M deal (this doesn't happen often but has potential to get value). Its a little risky because of the length but has upside if his shooting last year is closer to the player he will be. Could probably justify that deal based on defense alone.

Paying a premium for a basic backup big isn't ideal... but then I look at the wings in the Full MLE group and its not great. If a player is close to that level you usually end up having to throw the entire MLE at them.

Thad is really interesting to me and I think he's gettable (in part because of his contract/age). I also just don't see a guy like Baynes playing a big role late in the playoffs... even Favs locks you into one style of play. I could see Thad playing on either team. Even guys that many love like Derrick Jones aren't playing in the finals because he's too light in the shorts and doesn't shoot it well enough. The defensive versatility is really enticing and I think he could have a different role as a backup 5 that might help him be at least semi-useful on that end.
 

LoPo

Well-Known Member
Ed would fit into a trade exception they have. If we want to get some room under the cap we could offer Ed plus 3.5M in cash to just take him. Basically like them getting him for the minimum. They will operate over the cap but really aren't in danger of going into the tax.

That move just doesn't make us any better unless we sign someone with our exceptions. The guys I'm seeing at the full MLE type level are not guys I love. I'd almost rather shop for value at a lower level using part of the MLE. Say you offer Shaq Harrison a 4 year 12M deal (this doesn't happen often but has potential to get value). Its a little risky because of the length but has upside if his shooting last year is closer to the player he will be. Could probably justify that deal based on defense alone.

Paying a premium for a basic backup big isn't ideal... but then I look at the wings in the Full MLE group and its not great. If a player is close to that level you usually end up having to throw the entire MLE at them.

Thad is really interesting to me and I think he's gettable (in part because of his contract/age). I also just don't see a guy like Baynes playing a big role late in the playoffs... even Favs locks you into one style of play. I could see Thad playing on either team. Even guys that many love like Derrick Jones aren't playing in the finals because he's too light in the shorts and doesn't shoot it well enough. The defensive versatility is really enticing and I think he could have a different role as a backup 5 that might help him be at least semi-useful on that end.
Good post.

I definitely think Thad is gettable and I think he improves our bench. My issue is his contract. I hate that 21-22 year. If we completely struck out in our MLE hunting, then I could see us going after Thad.

However, that 21-22 year sticks in my head as a really, really bad number for a 34 year old SF/PF we don't know fits. Almost everybody loved the Ed Davis signing, and he is going to make less than $10 million over two years. If we miss on Thad as badly as we missed on Davis, we just screwed up two seasons.

I think we have to go younger with any addition we make. Every team in contention this year minus the Lakers throws 3 or 4 young or mid-20's guys out there disrupting play, hustling and playing with energy. I love the Shaq Harrison idea. He's another Royce type player and we need a few of those. At the very least, we have to add one or two quality defensive wings.
 

Handlogten's Heros

Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
Good post.

I definitely think Thad is gettable and I think he improves our bench. My issue is his contract. I hate that 21-22 year. If we completely struck out in our MLE hunting, then I could see us going after Thad.

However, that 21-22 year sticks in my head as a really, really bad number for a 34 year old SF/PF we don't know fits. Almost everybody loved the Ed Davis signing, and he is going to make less than $10 million over two years. If we miss on Thad as badly as we missed on Davis, we just screwed up two seasons.

I think we have to go younger with any addition we make. Every team in contention this year minus the Lakers throws 3 or 4 young or mid-20's guys out there disrupting play, hustling and playing with energy. I love the Shaq Harrison idea. He's another Royce type player and we need a few of those. At the very least, we have to add one or two quality defensive wings.
I'd actually like to see if we can split the MLE into multiple players in that Shaq Harrison type tier (guys that are somewhat proven, have some upside but could be fluky) and offer 4 year deals. If you can land a youngish roster piece at 4/12M its a big win... you may not hit on all of those picks but if you went 50% you'd be in good shape.

Not a lot of potential targets like that where I think they require more than a minimum deal because they are restricted but teams might not want to go out that many years because they aren't sure how good they are... another name in that group for me would be Jordan McLaughlin... small guard who played really well. Athletic and seems like a smart player. Not something we absolutely need right now, but if JC walked or we opted to move Conley he could have a decent role. Minny likely matches a reasonable offer, but 4/12M would give some pause I'm sure.
 

Cptgrnlngs22

Active Member
I saw an interesting trade idea on bleacher report. Not giving it any credibility given the source but I liked the trade.

Utah gets Oladipo and McDermott

Indy gets Conley, Ingles and the 23 pick


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Handlogten's Heros

Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
I saw an interesting trade idea on bleacher report. Not giving it any credibility given the source but I liked the trade.

Utah gets Oladipo and McDermott

Indy gets Conley, Ingles and the 23 pick


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Oladipo is quite good... I just wonder how well he'd mesh with DM. I think with ball handlers you get diminishing returns in some cases. Vic looked bad this season and likely plays much better next year, but maybe he doesn't bounce back from the injury.

Not sure what kind of return Indiana gets for him but I'm sure this would upset Pacers fans. I'm thinking this becomes a buy low for the Raptors... could see Masai doing a sign and trade with FVV and trying to capture lightning in a bottle again.
 

homeytennis

Well-Known Member
Oladipo is quite good... I just wonder how well he'd mesh with DM. I think with ball handlers you get diminishing returns in some cases. Vic looked bad this season and likely plays much better next year, but maybe he doesn't bounce back from the injury.

Not sure what kind of return Indiana gets for him but I'm sure this would upset Pacers fans. I'm thinking this becomes a buy low for the Raptors... could see Masai doing a sign and trade with FVV and trying to capture lightning in a bottle again.
Buddy Hield also wants out of Sacto bad.
 
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