LogGrad98
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I believe it was actually an epic thread in which you posted a cartoon treatise regarding white privilege.
The results of loosening gun restrictions
- Thread starter One Brow
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I believe it was actually an epic thread in which you posted a cartoon treatise regarding white privilege.
LogGrad98
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By the way, I think this entire thread might be OB's ploy to check our critical thinking skills
Or maybe if we are free thinking correctly.
Missouri Murder Rates per 100,000 (US rate in parentheses)
2003 5.05 (5.7)
2004 6.15 (5.5)
2005 6.93 (5.6)
2006 6.30 (5.7)
2007 6.55 (5.6)
2008 7.66 (5.4)
2009 6.46 (5.0)
2010 7.00 (4.8)
2011 6.09 (4.7)
2012 6.46 (4.7)
This would be a lot more compelling had the law been passed in 2003. Or if the conclusion wasn't largely based on a one-year spike (maybe the bad guys forgot about the new laws after a year). Or if there was more statistical significance. Or if there weren't a hundred other variables to control for in such a study. I'm curious why they chose Missouri and not Michigan or California.
2003 5.05 (5.7)
2004 6.15 (5.5)
2005 6.93 (5.6)
2006 6.30 (5.7)
2007 6.55 (5.6)
2008 7.66 (5.4)
2009 6.46 (5.0)
2010 7.00 (4.8)
2011 6.09 (4.7)
2012 6.46 (4.7)
This would be a lot more compelling had the law been passed in 2003. Or if the conclusion wasn't largely based on a one-year spike (maybe the bad guys forgot about the new laws after a year). Or if there was more statistical significance. Or if there weren't a hundred other variables to control for in such a study. I'm curious why they chose Missouri and not Michigan or California.
Do you think they were significantly different in Missouri than in Iowa, Kansas, Illinois, etc.? Significantly different between 2006 and 2009?
Do you have an alternative cause?
Always a good question. If it's just correlation, what would the hidden cause be?
I assume you meant the link offered by dalamon. That was about federal trials, and (as I understand it) you can get the death penalty anywhere in the US at a federal trial.
By the way, I think this entire thread might be OB's ploy to check our critical thinking skills
It's a fine spectacle.
A link to the official press release of the study:
https://www.jhsph.edu/news/news-rel...sociated-with-increase-in-states-murders.html
Missouri has about 6,000,000 people. A per-100,000 rate of 6 means about 360 murders/year. By contrast, the study finds an increase of "55 to 63 murders per year in Missouri between 2008 and 2012", so let's say 60. That's a 20% increase, but the ress release only claims "a sixteen percent increase in Missouri's murder rate". Do your numbers bear that out?
Using the averages from period of 2004-2007, versus 2008-2011, the Missouri murder rate went up 4.9%, versus the national rate going down 11.5%, making a 16.4% difference in the amount of change. Including 2003 and 2012 in each average raises that to 20.4%. So, the numbers you have offered support the result of the study.
It's not based on a one-year spike. I doubt you can name the statistical significance you are disparaging. Rather than wave your hand, name some of the variables you think were not controlled for, and that would make a difference here. You didn't mention any major changes in the Michigan or California gun laws in or around 2007. What were they?
It seemed that using an absolute number (the increase of 60 homicides) was not as meaningful as using a rate or some relative number. Bordy's chart (homicide rate per 100,000 population) is more meaningful to me.
You going to make us a pie when you're done picking all them cherries?
Why did Missouri murder rates increase by ~30% from 2003 to 2007 while the national trend was to hold steady?
Please explain using only relevant legislation which was passed, or using the factors of change in policing, incarceration, burglaries, unemployment, or poverty.
While you are responding, I will be working on the lattice for my pie. Maybe we can swap recipes after this ironically fruitless exercise.
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p.s., I'm (conveniently?) leaving for the next couple of days, so feel free to simply not respond and we'll call you the victor. I'm fine with that.
Why did Missouri murder rates increase by ~30% from 2003 to 2007 while the national trend was to hold steady?
Please explain using only relevant legislation which was passed, or using the factors of change in policing, incarceration, burglaries, unemployment, or poverty.
While you are responding, I will be working on the lattice for my pie. Maybe we can swap recipes after this ironically fruitless exercise.
---------------
p.s., I'm (conveniently?) leaving for the next couple of days, so feel free to simply not respond and we'll call you the victor. I'm fine with that.