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The West Conundrum

HermanG said:
Its a good point about Rockets. They did allow their young guys to play very selfish quality ball last season.

While it was effective for tanking purposes I dont know how easy it is to learn out of. Habits die hard.
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I don't see many of the young guys deferring to Brooks, who was about as bad a choice as you could get to add solid vet leadership.
 
HermanG said:
OP problem is also highlighted by Zach Harper doing his offseason Power Rankings. Out of his top 19 teams, 12 are from West. Utah is at #19, ranked as the best team outside the play-in/playoff tiers.

However even if we miss out which I think we wont, there are only 10 spots fir the other 11.

theathletic.com

NBA Power Rankings: Champs on top; one pressing question for all 30 teams

A couple of major dominoes are left to fall, but we have a pretty good idea of where every team stands this offseason.
theathletic.com theathletic.com
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minor gripe, but why label the additions/subtractions as "key" when they just listed all additions/subtractions?
 
As long as Lebron and AD have relative health the Lakers should be better this year. Say 60+ games out of both. They did a great job filling in the roster… sadly.

Dallas should be really good unless Kyrie brings matches and a gas can… which honestly is like a 50/50 proposition. They made some solid moves.

Suns will be really good unless 2 of Book, KD, Beal struggle to stay healthy.

Grizz I can see going either way. If Ja actually gets back after 25 games I can see them being solid but they are betting a lot on development of their young guys.

Nuggs will keep on plugging along.

Kings will end up having a down year… likely slightly worse than last year… will end up in the play in.

Everyone is jumping on OKC bandwagon… and I get it but I can also see them struggling if SGA gets hurt.

Clips are the one I can see really falling off. Kawhi is broken… PG is constantly hurt… and both guys want extensions. The other vets are done buying in… I just think that’s the one that might be over… getting Harden may push them 5 wins if they get a rip off deal.

SA, Houston, Portland are going to be tank city… maybe SA surprises.

GS, Minny, NOP are all teams I could see at 35 or close to 50 wins depending on health.

As currently constructed I think our win range is like 34-44 wins depending on how the roster gels and how healthy we are. It’s not a place I love but don’t see the obvious way up at the moment. Need one of the young guys to have a Kessler pop or make a big trade. I’d guess the young player popping is what ends up happening. We need to clear some pt for that to happen. This likely becomes the frustrating treadmill year before the bigger jump up. We likey give up a late lotto pick but that’s okay. The obligation being taken care of would be good.
 
nateboz said:
Lakers and Clippers will struggle. They both are relying on injury prone vets that are just getting older.
Spurs still have a terrible roster.
Houston has an expensive Medocre backcourt, with young guys who already play losing hero ball.
OKC should be much better, but their roster still isn't great.
Dallas has a poorly built team. Luka will probably ask for a trade sooner than later.
Denver will be solid.
Portland will be the worst team in the west.
Sacramento should be good, they usually suck so who knows.
Minnesota will miss the playoffs and probably look to either blow it up or trade Towns or Rudy to tweak the roster.
Phoenix should be solid. Booker, Beal and Durrant are going to cook when they're healthy.
Jazz will be significantly better. Every position should be better and deeper. Kessler will develop a little offense. Collins probably won't be the player he was 3 years ago, but he will be much better than Gay. The 3 rookies will be interesting. 1 will fade, and 1 will get 15 minutes, and 1 will end up being a huge piece. My guess is Hendricks will end up as best.
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I no see Hendricks so no I have opinion but Keyonte 25 minutes maybe more. He be very good. To be better than any now Jazz guards. All-Star future.
 
I think how good we are this year will have a lot to do with how good John Collins shoots the ball. If he is back to shooting high 30s from 3 and defenses have to respect him then our spacing should be good. That will allow guys like THT, Sexton, George to get where they want to.

If he's shooting like he did for the first half of last year then we could have spacing problems. Our best stretch of the season last year also coincided with KOs hot streak. I think it will be important for our team to get good shooting out of the 4.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I think how good we are this year will have a lot to do with how good John Collins shoots the ball. If he is back to shooting high 30s from 3 and defenses have to respect him then our spacing should be good. That will allow guys like THT, Sexton, George to get where they want to.

If he's shooting like he did for the first half of last year then we could have spacing problems. Our best stretch of the season last year also coincided with KOs hot streak. I think it will be important for our team to get good shooting out of the 4.
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If Kessler comes back from Team USA with more confidence, he could average a double-double and be a major floor-raiser. His combination of size, mobility, energy and great hands is a lot to contend with.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
If Kessler comes back from Team USA with more confidence, he could average a double-double and be a major floor-raiser. His combination of size, mobility, energy and great hands is a lot to contend with.
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That would be great. I think we should at least prepare ourselves for a sophomore slump though.
 
We have one of the best coaches in the league and even if we have three rookies and 0 all-nba talent aside Lauri making it 2024... I think Vegas and the casuals will be surprised again. We are creating something new and we hit at least that 40 wins mark this season... It is true we lost some names last season butt even with the constant changes this roster was in games. We also have now more defense with Dunn and Collins. We are golden. i could care less what others do. Will Hard is the next big thing with ateam filled with rag-tag mentality and two elite bigs+ the most underappreciated guard in league - hail Kris Dunn!
 
Returning to this subject as now the offseason moves are largely done and Vegas O/U lines are in for teams like the Blazers as well.

It looks even more likely that we have some completely fraudlent teams out here In the West.

Vegas O/U lines atm for West and difference to last years actual win totals in brackets:
Nuggets 52.5 (-0.5)
Sun 52.5 (+7.5)
Warriors 48.5 (+4.5)
Lakers 47.5 (+4.5)
Clippers 46.5 (+2.5)
Grizzlies 45.5 (-5.5)
Wolves 45.5 (+3.5)
Kings 44.5 (-3.5)
Mavs 44.5 (+6.5)
Thunder 44.5 (+4.5)
Pels 44.5 (+2.5)

Thats the top 11. Then there is a ridiculous gap of 9 wins between 11 and 12 with bottom 4 being:
Jazz 35.5 (-1.5)
Rockets 31.5 (+9.5)
Spurs 29.5 (+7.5)
Blazers 28.5 (-4.5)

So all in all, they are giving west +37.5 wins more than they combined for last year. Grizzlies, Kings and Blazers are expected to be clearly worse, Nuggets and Jazz are expected to remain about the same while all other 10 teams are expected to improve.

This is not what will happen. My guess is the frauds are Mavs, OKC, Clippers and Pels, while Jazz will greatly exceed the expected wins.
 
Jazz should win more than 35. I expect 38-42 range. Minny too could be a good surprised. Watch the 2 games agaisnt Dallas and they seems to have a gret bench this year.
 
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