Theory On Why Jefferson Makes Us Better Against L.A.

[7StraightIsGreat]

To address a few points on Freakazoid's statistical comparison of Boozer-Jefferson:

Forgive, but I am again going to reference some David Locke numbers because the guy does a crazy amount of research. He watched Al Jefferson's last 200 post up's from last season. He talked about how amazing it is to see that once getting the ball, Jefferson got no help from his teammates. Not one time was there a cross screen, a cutter going to the basket, nothing. Each and every time Jefferson got the ball, his teammates cleared the area and let Jefferson do all the work. Now, and this is the biggest thing that worries me about Jefferson, he has to learn to pass the ball out of the post when he's getting double and triple teamed. While it is a worry, I think it won't become a problem because for the first time in his career Al is going to learn he has help and where that help will be coming from each and every position. No need to force a post up shot when he's got 2 or 3 guys on him. That's what he was doing in Minny, and that's obviously going to lead to a lower FG %.

Boozer is obvioulsy a much better jump shooter, but I guees you have to ask yourself what you'd rather have in the Jazz offense: A PF with a really good outside jumper but is only taking into the low post 25% of the time, or a PF with a simply decent jumper from 15 feet in who lives on the low block and likes mixing it up physically. I know which one I'm choosing.

This would be my guess for the upcoming season: Al Jefferson is going to have the most offensively efficient year of his career. I'm not saying you'll immediately see numbers that compare with Boozer's numbers while in Utah, but I think you'll see a steady improvement over the next couple of years in that area. On the flip side, I think you'll see Boozer's percentages drop off a little bit in Chicago. His numbers won't fall of the face of the earth, but I do think you'll see a decline. Now that the Bulls have signed Brewer and he will reportedly be starting, that's not a great jump shooting starting 5. I'm interested to see how Boozer carries the load there.

 

[7StraightIsGreat]

Good points, but I was suprised to hear the other day the actual number of pick and rolls the Jazz ran last season. For Utah being considered a pick and roll team it was actually a pretty low number that put them somewhere around the middle of the league in that catagory. In regards to the pick and roll and Jefferson: Last season in Minny, he was asked to run the pick and roll 75 times and on every, single pick and roll Jefferson rolled straight to the hoop. Not one time did he flair out for the jumper or the pick and pop. Now what will be very interesting to me to see is who is going to be asked to make the adjustment. Is Utah going to see how effective Jefferson is at rolling to the hoop so they make adjustments on their end, or is Jefferson going to be asked to flair out and from time to time?

While I honestly have no idea what the Jazz will do I would say that I love a PF rolling hard to the hoop off a pick and roll. It puts more pressure on the defense, IMO makes them react quicker and obviously makes for a more physical game. Karl Malone did make a living flairing out on the pick and roll after he developed a reliable jump shot but I'll never forget how devestating Karl was early in his career when he'd roll to the hoop like a frieght train.

 

[mfree]

Good points, but I was suprised to hear the other day the actual number of pick and rolls the Jazz ran last season. For Utah being considered a pick and roll team it was actually a pretty low number that put them somewhere around the middle of the league in that catagory. In regards to the pick and roll and Jefferson: Last season in Minny, he was asked to run the pick and roll 75 times and on every, single pick and roll Jefferson rolled straight to the hoop. Not one time did he flair out for the jumper or the pick and pop. Now what will be very interesting to me to see is who is going to be asked to make the adjustment. Is Utah going to see how effective Jefferson is at rolling to the hoop so they make adjustments on their end, or is Jefferson going to be asked to flair out and from time to time?

While I honestly have no idea what the Jazz will do I would say that I love a PF rolling hard to the hoop off a pick and roll. It puts more pressure on the defense, IMO makes them react quicker and obviously makes for a more physical game. Karl Malone did make a living flairing out on the pick and roll after he developed a reliable jump shot but I'll never forget how devestating Karl was early in his career when he'd roll to the hoop like a frieght train.

If AlJeff rolls to the hoop consistently, wouldn't that cause a defender, (or 2) to have to try to catch up to him, thus increasing the potential that one or two secondary options would be open for a shot? I think Sloan and company are smart enough to see how defenders will react to that, and ensure that other options are available.

 

[Jazz4ever]

Look man, I'm very happy for Deron to have a new team, which is very talented, and has promise to achieve new heights.

Just the same, I'm willing to bet that 1/2 this board will flip their lid after a big loss, and cry like hell about the 2 picks we spent to land Big Al, thus turning on KOC as a failure.

This happens by Dec. 15.

That's my opinion. Hope I'm wrong4u.

The picks were tough to give up but as long as we plan on keeping DWill we must stay in win-now mode, or he walks. Without big Al to supplant Boozer's production this team could miss the playoffs. DWill then demands a trade or walks in 2012 and we are in complete rebuilding mode for the next 5 years. That is no fun.

 

[afrojazz]

I could be dead wrong, but in watching film on Tomic, there is literally nothing that gets me excited about that guy. I think he will get badly abused in this league.

The guy pounds and pounds the ball in the post. His offensive game doesn't translate into the NBA right now. His post moves need to be a lot more deliberate otherwise he will have a lot of 24-second violations and turnovers when defenders sag in and slap the ball away. Still, he has a nice touch. With improvement he could be Gasol-like on offense. Defensively there are a lot of question marks. The guy is skinny as a rail. And blocking shots requires timing more than anything. Not sure of how he will protect the rim in the NBA. But...the guy could be an interesting addition. The sooner he starts playing the NBA game the better. Guys can pick up a lot of Euro-trash in their games that will be hard to correct later.