My point was simply that you have to scout well, but getting a top 3 pick means every single one of those players was available. I didn’t include #1 and #2 picks. Just 3+. Jazz have to be a bottom 4 team to get those odds, but that’s what it takes to get a pick like that.
It’s not as simple as hoping for a 14% chance at the #1 pick - while that would be nice - you have to get a top 3 pick (usually) for the franchise changing players.
Agreed but at the same time soooooo much is coaching, being able to develop that player (not just bench them and give them the school of hard knocks) and being truly objective to your organization’s own big board and not allowing outside influence to determine who is drafted.
With great coaching, you can develop players who in other situations may have completely fizzled out or at least been a shell of what they became.
Best players from certain drafts
2005 draft-Chris Paul at 4
2006 draft- Lowry at 24, Aldridge at 2, Roy at 6
2007-Durant at 2, Marc Gasol at 48
2008-Russ at 4
2009-Curry at 7, Harden at 3
2010-Paul George at 10, Hayward at 9, Wall at 1
2011-Kawhi at 15, Klay at 9, Kyrie at 1
More often than not, in this snapshot, the best player wasn’t top 3…keep going and it holds true. Embiid, Giannis, Jokic, Rudy and so were all drafted outside of that window.
I’m not of the mind that having a top 3 pick isn’t far better than not. That would be stupid. But the elite talent is there is clearly there after. It’s just scouting, fit, and an absolute commitment from coaching, organization and player to get a player to develop into that.