Trades for/out of #1

[GunterD]

Yeah, Giannis is two years left on his deal and a player option. Jazz can't make that kind of deal unless they also somehow manage to wrangle enough other deals to make themselves an instant right now championship contender.

I guess (again this is answering the hypothetical "What would it take?" question, not looking at realistic considerations) that the Spurs are maybe the only team that could put potentially put a deal together that we would bite on. Assuming they win into the top 4 of the draft and offer their pick plus Wemby for #1, we would probably take that deal. Maybe even a trade for Wemby and a lesser first round pick.

But yeah we are up into the "we are asking so much for a trade that we will automatically think any offer that satisfies us must have some kind of strings attached" territory.

I don't think there is a realistic offer I would accept for the no. 1 pick. And I don't think we can make an offer that would be accepted either.

For example... we already have a ton of picks and the goal of getting all of those picks is to get one or a few that are of super high value and with an incredible prospect there to pick. Well, the no. 1 pick is that. The other option is - we get a superstar for the no. 1 pick... who would that be? Zion? Hell no... Embiid? Hell no... Wemby?!?!?!?!?!?!?! If the Spurs are letting Wemby go, there must be not very good news about his health long-term. Booker? No! Maybe the closest we can come to is if MKE lose in the playin and win the lottery. Would you trade the pick for Giannis? He's already in his 30s... so... for me it would be really hard to give up on a prospect like Flagg for 4-5 years of Giannis... and you don't even know how he will age going forward.

 

[fishonjazz]

Depends a lot on who wins the lottery.

From the Jazz perspective, if you're offered SGA, the 2nd, and a future first, yeah you say no. Because SGA only has 2 years left on his deal, and that's probably not enough time to build up enough of the rest of the roster to contend. You'll be better off with Flagg for 7 years, your own pick while you are still bad while he develops and you are working on getting more talent around him. There's probably some price that makes the Jazz pull the trigger, but its probably something ludicrous like an entire team swap with OKC or something.

If some already contending team owns an unprotected pick (too lazy to look this up), and they win the lottery, they'd probably trade #1 for SGA without anything additional, since it gives them an immediate window to a championship.

Agree to disagree.
A roster with SGA, Lauri, Collins, Sexton, Harper, Kessler and the youngsters (Key, Hendricks, Flip, Collier, etc) is looking pretty fantastic even before we try to add win now pieces. Plus another future first to go along with our treasure trove of other future firsts? We could put together a package to get Giannis level player with all the other picks left over to go with SGA, Harper, Kessler, Lauri etc. (we use collins/sexton/etc for salary matching purposes). I think that it is a championship team. But of course OKC would never make the offer. If they did? I say yes really easy. And Im one of the biggest Flagg homers on jazzfanz.

I would make that trade in a heartbeat. I will take a young in his early prime mvp over a maybe someday might be an mvp every time.

 

[Thee Jazz Fan]

Hypothetical #1: The Jazz win the lottery and get the first overall pick. What do you think it would take in return for the Jazz to trade the pick?

Hypothetical #2: The Jazz land between 2-4 but really want Flagg. Do the Jazz have a potential package to trade up to number one using their first round pick this year plus other picks/players? What would you give up for Flagg?

The last time the jazz traded the #1 pick it was the Magic draft. Don’t go there, only fools.

 

[Thee Jazz Fan]

I would trade everything for #1 including Cy’s soul. I lost mine a long time ago. Lol

 

[GunterD]

Agree to disagree.
A roster with SGA, Lauri, Collins, Sexton, Harper, Kessler and the youngsters (Key, Hendricks, Flip, Collier, etc) is looking pretty fantastic even before we try to add win now pieces. Plus another future first to go along with our treasure trove of other future firsts? We could put together a package to get Giannis level player with all the other picks left over to go with SGA, Harper, Kessler, Lauri etc. (we use collins/sexton/etc for salary matching purposes). I think that it is a championship team. But of course OKC would never make the offer. If they did? I say yes really easy. And Im one of the biggest Flagg homers on jazzfanz.

I would make that trade in a heartbeat. I will take a young in his early prime mvp over a maybe someday might be an mvp every time.

Oh I agree that would be a pretty great team and we have the assets to eventually make that a championship calibur team. We'd need to trade some of our assets to bring in another piece or two to really get there though, and that deal might not be immediately available. SGA's contract, and us being Utah, mean that we have a two year window to make that happen. If you can get some kind of assurances that he'd resign, I'd do that deal in a heartbeat. I just think that window is too short to get to the top. And once he leaves, you've basically just traded a #1 pick who is pretty likely to be one of the top 5 guys in the league at some point for a much iffier #2 pick and change. Its not just SGA vs Flagg, its SGA for 2 years vs Flagg for 7.

It might pan out. We might be able to strike enough other deals in this year to contend, and convince him to stay past the end of his contract. I just think the likely path in that scenario is a two year period where we have a second round exit, then a third round exit, and then we're back to the tanking grind less all the assets we traded to try to get complimentary pieces. Think if you're Utah and cashing in enough assets to get a top 5 guy, you need him for at least 3 years.

 

[fishonjazz]

Its not just SGA vs Flagg, its SGA for 2 years vs Flagg for 7.

Its not even that. Its SGA for 2 years (maybe longer), Harper and a future first vs Flagg for 7. Maybe we cant surround Flagg with a championship caliber team. Maybe he has a career like Christian Leatner/andrea bargnani/ michael bennet, etc. Maybe SGA re-signs. (okc isn't a huge destination location)
Lots of maybes.
What isn't a maybe is how good SGA is right now. If I had to bet on whether Flagg is ever as good as SGA is right now I would bet no.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

And once he leaves, you've basically just traded a #1 pick who is pretty likely to be one of the top 5 guys in the league at some point for a much iffier #2 pick and change.

What do you mean by "pretty likely?", as in what percentage would you put on Flagg brimming becoming a top 5 player? The other thing to consider, per your post, is how likely is that to happen within his first 4 to 5 years?

 

[fishonjazz]

What do you mean by "pretty likely?", as in what percentage would you put on Flagg brimming becoming a top 5 player? The other thing to consider, per your post, is how likely is that to happen within his first 4 to 5 years?

I am a huge believer in Flagg. I give him about a 15-20% chance that he will ever be a top 5 player in the league in a season.
That's rarified air. 15-20% chance is an amazing prospect.

Just curious, what percentage would you give him? I think this is an interesting question and I would love to hear other people's thoughts.

Fwiw I give wemby (sans health issues) a little better odds at becoming a top 5 player.

 

[NUMBERICA]

I am a huge believer in Flagg. I give him about a 15-20% chance that he will ever be a top 5 player in the league in a season.
That's rarified air. 15-20% chance is an amazing prospect.

Just curious, what percentage would you give him? I think this is an interesting question and I would love to hear other people's thoughts.

Fwiw I give wemby (sans health issues) a little better odds at becoming a top 5 player.

Flagg could be argued as an equal or better prospect because his body is (way) more likely to hold up over time.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I am a huge believer in Flagg. I give him about a 15-20% chance that he will ever be a top 5 player in the league in a season.
That's rarified air. 15-20% chance is an amazing prospect.

Just curious, what percentage would you give him? I think this is an interesting question and I would love to hear other people's thoughts.

Fwiw I give wemby (sans health issues) a little better odds at becoming a top 5 player.

Personally I think Flagg is an amazing prospect because I think his floor is so high. I would be very surprised if he isn't a borderline all star/top 30 player for the majority of his career.

I think he has a high ceiling, I'm really not sure how high. The main reason I believe in his ceiling is his competitiveness. On the other hand it is very unlikely for anyone to become a top 5 player, so I think I would go with 10%.

 

[FalseFlagg K]

Flagg could be argued as an equal or better prospect because his body is (way) more likely to hold up over time.

this is where i'm at as well I just don't see how a guy that big stays healthy, it'd be unprecedented

 

[jazznik]

The most obvious answer is Jokic. He is growing unhappy in Denver and is locked in the long-term contract. If the Jazz get the 1st pick and Flagg they can trade Flagg + Kessler + Sexton + fillers for Jokic. The Jazz get to immediately jump into contention with the core of Jokic-Markkanen-Collins, young players and whoever they can bring in for the picks. The Nuggets can reload and build around the young players in Flagg-Kessler-MPJ, while Sexton and moved to the bench Gordon will fix their bench scoring.