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Under the radar starter. . .

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Coach Ellis

Well-Known Member
I read an article the other day about the upside of Royce O’Neale. It got me thinking about how likely (or not) it was that he could develop into a legitimate NBA starter. I decided to compare him to other players who had a similar path in the NBA and a comparable skill set. Since they were nearly all later picks or undrafted, I used their Per36 minutes stats to compare them before they became regular starters. I know that's not a perfect way to evaluate them, but it was the most consistent way that I could think of. . .

Player A. SG/SF: Royce O'Neale (Undrafted) - 151 games, 20 starts (2,821 total minutes) - 3.6/8.0 FG (45.1%) - 1.4/3.8 3pt (37.1%) - 9.8 Points - 6.6 Rebounds - 2.8 Assists - 1.1 Steals - 0.5 Blocks

Player B. SF: DeMarre Carroll (Late 1st) - 173 games, 22 starts (2,304 total minutes) - 4.4/10.4 FG (42.8%) - 0.4/1.5 3pt (28.4%) - 11.2 Points - 6.2 Rebounds - 1.8 Assists - 1.5 Steals - 0.5 Blocks

Player C. SF/PF: Trevor Ariza (Mid 2nd) - 137 games, 22 starts (2,381 total minutes) - 4.0/9.3 FG (43.1%) - 0.1/0.3 3pt (22.2%) - 11.1 Points - 7.0 Rebounds - 2.2 Assists - 1.9 Steals - 0.4 Blocks

Player D. SG/SF: Kent Bazemore (Undrafted) - 203 games, 25 starts (2,502 total minutes) - 4.8/11.4 FG (41.9%) - 1.5/4.2 3pt (34.4%) - 13.2 Points - 5.2 Rebounds - 2.7 Assists - 1.6 Steals - 0.7 Blocks

Player E. SF/PF: Al-Farouq Aminu (Early 1st) - 147 games - 35 starts (2,929 total minutes) - 3.8/9.5 FG (40.2%) - 0.7/2.3 3pt (30.5%) - 10.5 Points - 7.1 Rebounds - 1.5 Assists - 1.5 Steals - 0.7 Blocks

Player F. SF/PF: P. J. Tucker (Early 2nd) - 96 games - 45 starts (1,993 total minutes) - 4.0/8.4 FG (47.4%) - 0.4/1.3 3pt (31.4%) - 9.7 Points - 6.7 Rebounds - 2.0 Assists - 1.2 Steals - 0.3 Blocks
 
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Each of these players are widely regarded as plus-to-elite defenders (or high level 3&D players) who took at least two years to become NBA starters. Within two years of each of these stats, almost every single player became a full-time NBA starter and has started at least 75% of the games they've played in for the rest of their career - for a total of 2,630 starts out of a total of 3,478 games (75.6%). *Player J. has only started 65.2% of his games, but has also been playing the longest out of all the players that I included. On average, they didn't become starters until they were about 25 years old.

(I decided to exclude Player B. or Player C. from that equation because they're both multiple time All-Stars who've started almost 100% of their games since these stats.)
 
Player A.) - SG/SF (6'6" 226 lbs.) - The subject of the article that I read. Someone that likely has starting potential for the future.

Player B.) - SF (6'8" 215 lbs.) - Elite 3 & D wing who has made about $14.5 million per year (on average) for the past 4 years.

Player C.) - SF/PF (6'8 215 lbs.) - Elite 3 & D wing/forward who has made about $9.34 million (on average) for the past 5 years.

Player D.) - SG/SF (6'5 201 lbs.) - Defensive wing who has made about $16.9 million (on average) for the past 3 years.

Player E.) - SF/PF (6'9" 220 lbs.) - Defensive wing/forward who has made about $7.5 million (on average) for the past 4 years. Former lottery pick who ended up on a minimum contract for a year.

Player F.) - SF/PF (6'6"245 lbs.) - 3 & D wing forward who has made about $6.4 million (on average) for the past 5 years. Former international player who wasn't a consistent NBA starter until he was 28 years old.
 
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I assume you're talking about O'neal? I definitely think he could become a full time starter down the line. If we land someone like Tobias Harris in the offseason there's a chance we could move Donovan to point guard and make O'neale the starting 2 guard next season. I personally think he's a good bench piece and I'd prefer to keep him there for the time being.
 
Jingled said:
I assume you're talking about O'neal? I definitely think he could become a full time starter down the line. If we land someone like Tobias Harris in the offseason there's a chance we could move Donovan to point guard and make O'neale the starting 2 guard next season. I personally think he's a good bench piece and I'd prefer to keep him there for the time being.
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Yep. It is Royce O'Neale.

Player A. Royce O'Neale
Player B. DeMarre Carroll
Player C. Trevor Ariza
Player D. Kent Bazemore
Player E. Al-Farouq Aminu
Player F. P. J. Tucker

I'm not sure if he gets a chance to start in Utah, but he might. I think that he could have a jump like Carroll and Bazemore both did in similar circumstances. Eventually, I think he's a rotational wing/forward like Tucker and Ariza - just not sure how much he's going to get as a RFA next offseason.
 
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Thabo sucks. He along with Rubio and Exum are players I don’t want to see next year.

Royce is a decent 8th or 9th man. Some people on this board act like he’s the second coming of Jordan. Honestly, he’s a dime a dozen player. What exactly is his ceiling? Poor man’s B-Russ? James Posey?
 
The Thriller said:
Thabo sucks. He along with Rubio and Exum are players I don’t want to see next year.

Royce is a decent 8th or 9th man. Some people on this board act like he’s the second coming of Jordan. Honestly, he’s a dime a dozen player. What exactly is his ceiling? Poor man’s B-Russ? James Posey?
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Douchebag K said:
Royce is very limited and is not a quality NBA starter
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You two are the dumbests people on this forum.

Royce got next.

Watch and see.
 
Royce looked poised to take a leap after last years playoffs and he really didnt last year. I think the Harden matchup is a good one for him but he doesnt matchup that well against everyone.

I do expect him to be a solid part of this team moving forward and I hope we can have him for a while.
 
NPC D4617 said:
You two are the dumbests people on this forum.

Royce got next.

Watch and see.
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You’re a clueless troll. Royce is a great defender and good shooter if he’s open. He can’t create a damn thing on his own and turns the ball over when he tries. He misses more easy attempts at the rim than Dante
 
Royce O'Neale should start for us and I personally believe he is going to emerge as a strong starter for a long time. We could start him at SG, SF or PF.

He needs to work on his playmaking ability, but that will come with time. His defense, consistent level of effort, and ability to shoot from distance makes him really valuable for us.

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I have no idea about Royce and I don't think anyone else does either.
He has good size and athleticism and a decent shot. High motor/energy/effort. Makes quick decisions. Does he have a high bbiq? I think most would say yes. Despite these positive attributes his stats are underwhelming.
20 minutes per game. 5 points. 3.5 rebounds. 1.5 assists. 47% from the field, 39% from 3, 76% from the line (he never gets to the line though. Only 0.5 attempts per game)

His per 36 stats suck too. The only players on the entire team that average less points per game per 36 are Naz and Tyler cavanaugh. Thats not good. Udoh, Tony Bradley, Exum, neto, sefalosha all average more points per 36. Those guys aren't great scorers.

He isn't really good at anything besides defense.

He only takes open shots. Maybe with more usage, touches, and shots he would be better on offense. I think the common thought is that more usage and shots means lower efficiency though.

He is 25 years old and was undrafted iirc.

If you look at the whole picture without any bias then I think you would come to the conclusion that he just isn't very good.

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Wes Mantooth said:
This was clumsily presented.
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You’re right. I probably should’ve just focused on the overall progression of DeMarre Carroll, Kent Bazemore, and P. J. Tucker (who I think are all comparable players.)

They all went on to be successful (and well compensated) starters for their teams after similar starts to their careers. That’s the path that I see Royce taking. Maybe I’ll just remove the other less comparable players.
 
Ellis269 said:
Yep. It is Royce O'Neale.

Player A. Royce O'Neale
Player B. Jimmy Butler
Player C. Draymond Green
Player D. DeMarre Carroll
Player E. Trevor Ariza
Player F. Kent Bazemore
Player G. Joe Ingles
Player H. Al-Farouq Aminu
Player I. P. J. Tucker
Player J. Thabo Sefalosha

I'm not sure if he gets a chance to start in Utah, but he might. I think that he could have a jump like Carroll and Bazemore both did in similar circumstances. Eventually, I think he's a rotational wing/forward like Tucker and Ariza - just not sure how much he's going to get as a RFA next offseason.
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I wanted him to start in place of Rubio last season.
 
Douchebag K said:
You’re a clueless troll. Royce is a great defender and good shooter if he’s open. He can’t create a damn thing on his own and turns the ball over when he tries. He misses more easy attempts at the rim than Dante
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Royce shoots slightly better at the rim. Like around %15 better. Not much there to talk about.
 
Ellis269 said:
You’re right. I probably should’ve just focused on the overall progression of DeMarre Carroll, Kent Bazemore, and P. J. Tucker (who I think are all comparable players.)

They all went on to be successful (and well compensated) starters for their teams after similar starts to their careers. That’s the path that I see Royce taking. Maybe I’ll just remove the other less comparable players.
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I would be interested to know if those 3 players per 36 scoring numbers were ever as low as Royce's.

I actually looked this up myself. Bazemore, no. Carroll was a much worse offensive player statistically for the first 3 years though he barely played.

PJ Tucker is a funny one. He has been in the league for 8 years. 5 of those years he has averaged less than 10 points per game per 36. Including the last 4 years. And how shooting percentages are not very good either over good career. Looking at his stats it would appear that he sucks. Bad.

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Royce O'Neale can play. There are bunch of hopefuls trying to breakthru to the league who'd love to be in his shoes in a season or 2.

Utah has abysmal floor spacing for a 50 win team in todays NBA, with Rubio and Mitchell, it's a chuckfest from 3 mostly when u play the Jazz, ur high volume gusy are low % guys and the specialists bring the team% up to a less than avg 35% from deep.... This doesnt seem a particularly good environment for O'Neale's offense


I told y'all a long time ago about Aminu!! I used to have yearly offseason threads about Aminu back when he couldnt get paid, and the guy is markedly better in the playoffs than he is in the regular szn.

Imagine in 2010 the Clippers take Gordon Hayward 8th and Aminu goes to Utah 9th, I think there's a chance he'd have played every season here, plus they'd have probably kept Millsap around.... I'll just stop right there..
 
One reason I'm optimistic about his ability to get better and produce if he is elevated into the starting lineup is that he improved his numbers across the board when he was a starter.

Baseline Numbers - 2017
69 Games / 4 Starts (16.7 minutes per game)
1.7/4.1 FG (.423) - 0.6/1.7 3pt (.356) - 5.0 PPG - 3.4 RPG - 1.4 APG - 0.5 SPG - 0.2 BPG - (+2.8)

Baseline Numbers - 2018
82 Games / 16 Starts (20.4 minutes per game)
2.0/4.2 FG (.475) - 0.8/2.1 3pt (.386) - 5.2 PPG - 3.5 RPG - 1.5 APG - 0.7 SPG - 0.3 BPG - (+2.1)

As a starter (20 Games - 13W - 7L)
3.5/7.3 FG (.467) - 1.3/3.6 3pt (.366) - 9.9 PPG - 6.0 RPG - 2.5 APG - 1.1 SPG - 0.6 BPG - (+7.3)

As a starter (14 Games - 11W - 3L)
When the lineup is Mitchell, O'Neale, Ingles, Favors and Gobert
3.8/7.8 FG (.486) - 1.9/4.0 3pt (.410) - 10.7 PPG - 6.9 RPG - 2.4 APG - 1.3 SPG - 0.6 BPG - (+9.6)
 
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