What are you most concerned about with the Jazz for the 25/26 season?

[GunterD]

I'm not sure I understand this part. Unless Luari gets hurt, I don't know how his contract becomes an issue, and even then, we have to pay someone? In other words, what opportunities are we missing out on because of Lauri's contract?

I'm not looking at that part for this year. He's under contract at 46-53 million per year through 2029. If he dramatically underperforms that, the contract is untradeable, and we are stuck with it, or we have to jettison valuable resources to get rid of it. If Bailey and one of our other draft picks hit, we'll want to start seriously team building before then. Kessler, Hendricks, Williams, George, Clayton, if they are pieces need to be paid before then or traded or potentially let go for nothing. Makes some of those decisions harder. If we switch to compete mode we would want to start acquiring complimentary pieces, which is harder with a big cap hit.

Basically its just when you're trying to build up a team, if you're dramatically overpaying a guy it makes that really hard, and my hope would be that we would be serious team building before 2029 when his contract expires.

Now I don't actually think that's really going to happen, I think he's a really good player and isn't going to dramatically underperform. I'm saying though that he creates kind of a dilemma. If he's good enough to justify that contract, he's probably good enough to drag what we've got of a team up past 8th worst in a league where the bottom 10 are all trying to outperform each other for how bad they suck, unless we are getting "creative" about minutes and rest. If he isn't good enough to do that and is just a complimentary piece, at that price tag he'll limit what the team can do for team building in future years.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I'm not looking at that part for this year. He's under contract at 46-53 million per year through 2029. If he dramatically underperforms that, the contract is untradeable, and we are stuck with it, or we have to jettison valuable resources to get rid of it. If Bailey and one of our other draft picks hit, we'll want to start seriously team building before then. Kessler, Hendricks, Williams, George, Clayton, if they are pieces need to be paid before then or traded or potentially let go for nothing. Makes some of those decisions harder. If we switch to compete mode we would want to start acquiring complimentary pieces, which is harder with a big cap hit.

Basically its just when you're trying to build up a team, if you're dramatically overpaying a guy it makes that really hard, and my hope would be that we would be serious team building before 2029 when his contract expires.

Now I don't actually think that's really going to happen, I think he's a really good player and isn't going to dramatically underperform. I'm saying though that he creates kind of a dilemma. If he's good enough to justify that contract, he's probably good enough to drag what we've got of a team up past 8th worst in a league where the bottom 10 are all trying to outperform each other for how bad they suck, unless we are getting "creative" about minutes and rest. If he isn't good enough to do that and is just a complimentary piece, at that price tag he'll limit what the team can do for team building in future years.

To be a little more clear his contract is up at the end of the 28/29 seasons, none of our rookies this year or next year will need to be paid before then. It would be a good problem to have if our other rookie contract players are good enough to demand contracts large enough we would be worried about the cap.

According to Spotrac Lauri is projected to be taking up 26% of the cap in 28/29. If he's healthy, I can't imagine that he wouldn't be useful to our team. I also can't imagine that he couldn't be moveable, especially if we attach one of our many picks. Obviously not ideal, but not killer to our rebuild.

 

[GunterD]

To be a little more clear his contract is up at the end of the 28/29 seasons, none of our rookies this year or next year will need to be paid before then. It would be a good problem to have if our other rookie contract players are good enough to demand contracts large enough we would be worried about the cap.

According to Spotrac Lauri is projected to be taking up 26% of the cap in 28/29. If he's healthy, I can't imagine that he wouldn't be useful to our team. I also can't imagine that he couldn't be moveable, especially if we attach one of our many picks. Obviously not ideal, but not killer to our rebuild.

OK, that's not as bad. I did the math in my head on the RFA rules wrong. So catastrophic was too strong a word.

Still think based on his performance we go one of several ways

1) Lives up to the contract, stays on the team, no artificial minute or rest restrictions. Team wins more than we want to and we spend the year worrying about simultaneously losing our draft pick and missing the playoffs.
2) Lives up to the contract, stays on the team, weird tank stuff happens with minutes. Team loses plenty but the team is gross to watch again.
3) Lives up to the contract, gets traded. We get some stuff back that probably doesn't end up as valuable as he would be and he goes and does awesome with some other team.
4) Fails to live up to the contract. Team loses plenty without egregiously tanking, but his contract limits our team building ability through 2029.

I don't like any of those options.

I dunno, 8th worst was 34 wins last year? Maybe I'm overreacting. Maybe you could convince me that playing peak Lauri normal minutes we could still duck that without being gross.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

OK, that's not as bad. I did the math in my head on the RFA rules wrong. So catastrophic was too strong a word.

Still think based on his performance we go one of several ways

1) Lives up to the contract, stays on the team, no artificial minute or rest restrictions. Team wins more than we want to and we spend the year worrying about simultaneously losing our draft pick and missing the playoffs.
2) Lives up to the contract, stays on the team, weird tank stuff happens with minutes. Team loses plenty but the team is gross to watch again.
3) Lives up to the contract, gets traded. We get some stuff back that probably doesn't end up as valuable as he would be and he goes and does awesome with some other team.
4) Fails to live up to the contract. Team loses plenty without egregiously tanking, but his contract limits our team building ability through 2029.

I don't like any of those options.

I dunno, 8th worst was 34 wins last year? Maybe I'm overreacting. Maybe you could convince me that playing peak Lauri normal minutes we could still duck that without being gross.

We are currently projected to win 18 games. I don't even think it's possible for an off ball player who is only an average defender to have the type of impact you are concerned about.

If we lose our pick it will be a combination of things, but the most likely would be that one or more of our rookie contract players has broken out.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Im not overly concerned about the young players looking good/bad. The jewel is going to be who we pick. I just hope Ace looks like a starter and Flip continues to grow. I'm not going to stress if Keyonte/Brice/Cody/Hendricks all end up being mediocre.

 

[framer]

I'm definitely a worrier, and so to some degree I'm worried about all of these things even if some are contradictory.

For example, I really am worried about watching a terrible product this year and being the worst team. I own a lot of Jazz gear and it's not fun living out of state and repping the worst team in the league.

At the same time I worry about Lauri and Kessler being awesome, Keyonte taking the third year leap, Hardy coaching to win, and being just good enough to lose our pick.

I shouldn't simultaneously be worried about both things and yet I am. To be a fan is to be illogical I guess.

If we are playing that well with what we have on paper right now, we have already won. Flirting with the play in with this roster is the second best alternative to winning the lottery.

 

[GunterD]

We are currently projected to win 18 games. I don't even think it's possible for an off ball player who is only an average defender to have the type of impact you are concerned about.

If we lose our pick it will be a combination of things, but the most likely would be that one or more of our rookie contract players has broken out.

I do hope so.

Last year we won 17, while pretty egregiously manipulating lineups and rest days to lose on purpose. If we aren't doing that this year, I don't see how we just win 18. The year prior we won 31 and had the 8th worst record. The year before that we won 37. I think we were projected to the very bottom both of those years as well. I think Lauri's play was a big part of the reason we didn't end up there.

If we are lose-on-purpose tanking again despite what everyone is saying, then fine, I just don't want to watch it happen again.

 

[cctrackstar]

i was excited about lauri's oversea's production for about ten minutes before i remembered that the team has traded away every productive vet on the team the second they have positive value. tanking sucks.

 

[Miggs]

I'm not looking at that part for this year. He's under contract at 46-53 million per year through 2029. If he dramatically underperforms that, the contract is untradeable, and we are stuck with it, or we have to jettison valuable resources to get rid of it. If Bailey and one of our other draft picks hit, we'll want to start seriously team building before then. Kessler, Hendricks, Williams, George, Clayton, if they are pieces need to be paid before then or traded or potentially let go for nothing. Makes some of those decisions harder. If we switch to compete mode we would want to start acquiring complimentary pieces, which is harder with a big cap hit.

Basically its just when you're trying to build up a team, if you're dramatically overpaying a guy it makes that really hard, and my hope would be that we would be serious team building before 2029 when his contract expires.

Now I don't actually think that's really going to happen, I think he's a really good player and isn't going to dramatically underperform. I'm saying though that he creates kind of a dilemma. If he's good enough to justify that contract, he's probably good enough to drag what we've got of a team up past 8th worst in a league where the bottom 10 are all trying to outperform each other for how bad they suck, unless we are getting "creative" about minutes and rest. If he isn't good enough to do that and is just a complimentary piece, at that price tag he'll limit what the team can do for team building in future years.

46-53 will look like peanuts in two years. The contract is fine.

 

[rjfan]

Lottery luck (or lack there of)

I guess I kind of consider that as post-season, but yes, would suck if there are only 3-4 clear cut franchise players and we don't win the lottery again.

I mean, ain't the case that guys that should be available for a 5/6th pick in the 26 draft having a better projections so far than the ones by 5/6th this year ?

Not that I disagree with the notion that shooting for the worst record and getting the 5th pick doesn't suck, nor that I actually follow predraft stuff enough to feel confident discussing that, but ain't that something that maybe would be worse for this 25 class than for the 26 ?

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I mean, ain't the case that guys that should be available for a 5/6th pick in the 26 draft having a better projections so far than the ones by 5/6th this year ?

Not that I disagree with the notion that shooting for the worst record and getting the 5th pick doesn't suck, nor that I actually follow predraft stuff enough to feel confident discussing that, but ain't that something that maybe would be worse for this 25 class than for the 26 ?

This time last year I thought the 25 draft was deeper in top end talent than 26. I don't think that is true anymore, but goes to show that you really don't know until they start playing games.

 

[rjfan]

I know things as culture and locker room enviroment are important, both for the proper development of our younger guys, and maybe keeping Lauri.

But at this point in our rebuild when 3 years into It we still don't have a new face of the franchise (Lauri is a number 2 at best, not a FP), not even clear candidates for that (fingers crossed for Ace, the hopes are there, but not a clear one where you're banking on that before he starts playing actual NBA games), I'm much more concerned about each and every young player being good enough ball players that I actually care that they keep their status as a Jazz player (and not that I want them gone), than how well they mesh together.