While the pandemic is not over based on case numbers, taking the view of an optimist, hopefully cases numbers will trend down and this will become more endemic.
Obviously Covid has a large impact on all of us, and even once we get out of the pandemic, I think a lot of things will change. Here is my initial list, I'd appreciate others thoughts, as it may help all of us anticipate and prepare for long-term "new normal" trends:
1. I think a much larger portion of the work force will continue to work from home. I have an office of one, so my situation hasn't changed, but I anticipate for many this will create isolation. I also think this will continue to push prices up in rural areas as people discover they can afford much more by moving to a lower cost area. I think video calls will become much more regular, and we'll see shrinkage in office footprint size. This will continue to push people to rural areas, as they will want nicer/bigger houses if they are going to be in them during the workday too. I also think cruise ships, large hotels, and other large events will see a small but significant portion of their customer base move towards outdoor adventures and Airbnb.
2. While I think we'll return to having crowds, I think the total number of people going to restaurants, movies, etc., will continue to be lower than they were pre-pandemic for a while. It will probably take 5 years to get back to regular #s.
3. I think downtown businesses will continue to crumble. With the lack of workforce concentrated in the city, there are far too many restaurants, dry cleaners, day cares, etc. I think we'll continue to see cities suffer for a number of years.
4. I think seeing masks in public will continue for some. It won't be unique to see a number of people wearing masks on planes or crowded areas. I also think people are going to demand cleaner conditions, and perhaps actually wash their hands after going the bathroom (can't believe how many people didn't before the pandemic, and still may not).
5. I think pandemic spending, with no plan to repay, will continue to spike inflation for a while. I also think we'll see a reduction in a lot of manufacturing. I think it will be at least a year before supply gets back to normal.
6. With a relatively "mild" virus, we saw how fragile our infrastructure is. I think this will cause many more people to distrust the "system". Not sure how that will actually affect things, but may cause a shift in political voting.
7. Delivery services will continue to boom, including Amazon, food delivery, Walmart Plus, etc. Restaurants prices will increase due to the lack of people eating at the restaurant and buying drinks (soda, alcohol, etc.) which tend to have the highest profit margins. Retail/malls will continue a downward trend. This will have a dramatic negative effect on small business. Online services like telehealth will continue to see a boost.
8. Hard currency will continue to decline, and digital transactions will take over. This trend had already begun, but like movement to suburbs, the pandemic accelerated this at a high level. Eventually your phone will be your wallet/ID.
9. More us vs them mentality. When your circle shrinks, unfortunately so does your ability to be open-minded. I think we'll have more political unrest and dismissive viewpoints of those outside our circles. This will be very damaging to our country. Hopefully I'm wrong, and people will see the importance of strong social connections, and how vulnerable some of our population is.
Interested to hear what others think.
Obviously Covid has a large impact on all of us, and even once we get out of the pandemic, I think a lot of things will change. Here is my initial list, I'd appreciate others thoughts, as it may help all of us anticipate and prepare for long-term "new normal" trends:
1. I think a much larger portion of the work force will continue to work from home. I have an office of one, so my situation hasn't changed, but I anticipate for many this will create isolation. I also think this will continue to push prices up in rural areas as people discover they can afford much more by moving to a lower cost area. I think video calls will become much more regular, and we'll see shrinkage in office footprint size. This will continue to push people to rural areas, as they will want nicer/bigger houses if they are going to be in them during the workday too. I also think cruise ships, large hotels, and other large events will see a small but significant portion of their customer base move towards outdoor adventures and Airbnb.
2. While I think we'll return to having crowds, I think the total number of people going to restaurants, movies, etc., will continue to be lower than they were pre-pandemic for a while. It will probably take 5 years to get back to regular #s.
3. I think downtown businesses will continue to crumble. With the lack of workforce concentrated in the city, there are far too many restaurants, dry cleaners, day cares, etc. I think we'll continue to see cities suffer for a number of years.
4. I think seeing masks in public will continue for some. It won't be unique to see a number of people wearing masks on planes or crowded areas. I also think people are going to demand cleaner conditions, and perhaps actually wash their hands after going the bathroom (can't believe how many people didn't before the pandemic, and still may not).
5. I think pandemic spending, with no plan to repay, will continue to spike inflation for a while. I also think we'll see a reduction in a lot of manufacturing. I think it will be at least a year before supply gets back to normal.
6. With a relatively "mild" virus, we saw how fragile our infrastructure is. I think this will cause many more people to distrust the "system". Not sure how that will actually affect things, but may cause a shift in political voting.
7. Delivery services will continue to boom, including Amazon, food delivery, Walmart Plus, etc. Restaurants prices will increase due to the lack of people eating at the restaurant and buying drinks (soda, alcohol, etc.) which tend to have the highest profit margins. Retail/malls will continue a downward trend. This will have a dramatic negative effect on small business. Online services like telehealth will continue to see a boost.
8. Hard currency will continue to decline, and digital transactions will take over. This trend had already begun, but like movement to suburbs, the pandemic accelerated this at a high level. Eventually your phone will be your wallet/ID.
9. More us vs them mentality. When your circle shrinks, unfortunately so does your ability to be open-minded. I think we'll have more political unrest and dismissive viewpoints of those outside our circles. This will be very damaging to our country. Hopefully I'm wrong, and people will see the importance of strong social connections, and how vulnerable some of our population is.
Interested to hear what others think.
