What Happens if We Don't Trade for Al?
- Thread starter homeytennis
- Start date
That is an achievment for a role player. Much like Scola who is averaging 19/8 and yet no one is talking about him. And I did say that Sap is a good role player and a great sixth man to have.
Just not a starting PF on a team trying to be elite, whose offense runs mostly through the 4 spot
JAZZFAN_2814
Active Member
Al Jefferson, honestly, has been below-par.
Paul Millsap has been about on par.
One is what he is. A role player. His "on" stretches or nights will showcase him, statistically at least, as a near-star talent, but just as likely, or even more, he will look like a guy that has no business being a starting 4 on a contender (oh, wait...).
The other is...what...he was on a lotto team, or what he's shown for Utah?! Jefferson's biggest problem is, ipso facto, expectation-turned-on-court-expectorate. Jazz management moved on him to be a replacement for Boozer, not Laurel to Millsap's Hardy. Williams thought he could remold him into an all-star, or that the simple fact that he was on a new, playoff-level team would be enough to propel him on the national stage and provide that slot.
Expectation needs to be reality for him. Fairly or unfairly. He can't team with Millsap as a working-class twin tower, the D-League superstar. His stats have regressed, and the question becomes worth of skillsets.
On those levels, he's both questionable and exclamatory. On the latter point, one to one or versus, I'd rather have Jefferson than Millsap. Because, yes, as a base argument you can actually run plays through the guy...assuming he ever learns them. As a post player, he's in another strata from Paul. He's got the tools to create his own offense.
But can he facilitate for others? This is what's dogging him and, quite plausibly, is what is lowering his own offensive efficiency. It's not simply an issue of playing selfishly, but a-near inability to know when to play for his own shot or to dominate through presence and passing out of the post; on that point, the two sides combine, as he can't seem to read either the defense or his own team's playcalling on a consistent basis, he then becomes altogether timid. His own numbers are pedestrian to piss-poor, while the team vacillates between pure Flex and bumbling isolation.
And yet, the silver-lining is that, however unlikely -- and, remember, this has only been a half-season of play -- he could improve. And improve massively. From the standpoint of individual offense, he's the only credible secondary option to Williams.
That he's been so slow on the uptake is highly troubling. But that Utah has a player like Kirilenko that can't even run a lane when called to do so is in another level entirely; Jefferson's may be an airhead (troposphere) but Kirilenko is simply a space case (exosphere), particularly when you consider the number of games that the latter has played for this team, and the amount of money wasted in watching him do it.
Jefferson may be a moron, but that's not nearly as offensive as a player too full of himself to even try.
Between Kirilenko and Millsap, we know what the Jazz are. Jefferson remains a mystery, I think even to himself.
Sad to say, but that's about as good as it gets for this team, beyond Deron.
Paul Millsap has been about on par.
One is what he is. A role player. His "on" stretches or nights will showcase him, statistically at least, as a near-star talent, but just as likely, or even more, he will look like a guy that has no business being a starting 4 on a contender (oh, wait...).
The other is...what...he was on a lotto team, or what he's shown for Utah?! Jefferson's biggest problem is, ipso facto, expectation-turned-on-court-expectorate. Jazz management moved on him to be a replacement for Boozer, not Laurel to Millsap's Hardy. Williams thought he could remold him into an all-star, or that the simple fact that he was on a new, playoff-level team would be enough to propel him on the national stage and provide that slot.
Expectation needs to be reality for him. Fairly or unfairly. He can't team with Millsap as a working-class twin tower, the D-League superstar. His stats have regressed, and the question becomes worth of skillsets.
On those levels, he's both questionable and exclamatory. On the latter point, one to one or versus, I'd rather have Jefferson than Millsap. Because, yes, as a base argument you can actually run plays through the guy...assuming he ever learns them. As a post player, he's in another strata from Paul. He's got the tools to create his own offense.
But can he facilitate for others? This is what's dogging him and, quite plausibly, is what is lowering his own offensive efficiency. It's not simply an issue of playing selfishly, but a-near inability to know when to play for his own shot or to dominate through presence and passing out of the post; on that point, the two sides combine, as he can't seem to read either the defense or his own team's playcalling on a consistent basis, he then becomes altogether timid. His own numbers are pedestrian to piss-poor, while the team vacillates between pure Flex and bumbling isolation.
And yet, the silver-lining is that, however unlikely -- and, remember, this has only been a half-season of play -- he could improve. And improve massively. From the standpoint of individual offense, he's the only credible secondary option to Williams.
That he's been so slow on the uptake is highly troubling. But that Utah has a player like Kirilenko that can't even run a lane when called to do so is in another level entirely; Jefferson's may be an airhead (troposphere) but Kirilenko is simply a space case (exosphere), particularly when you consider the number of games that the latter has played for this team, and the amount of money wasted in watching him do it.
Jefferson may be a moron, but that's not nearly as offensive as a player too full of himself to even try.
Between Kirilenko and Millsap, we know what the Jazz are. Jefferson remains a mystery, I think even to himself.
Sad to say, but that's about as good as it gets for this team, beyond Deron.
The danger with casting your lot with Jefferson at the cost of Millsap (who until the last week was clearly the 2nd best player on this team) is that Jefferson's inability to read a defense or play in an offense can have a massively net-negative affect. Sure, if he ever figures those out, you keep him, but he's been in the league 8 YEARS and has never shown that he can do those things. His fundamentals were terrible when he came into the league and they're hardly better now. When will he learn? What will make him learn? I'll be the first in line to get my helping of Corvus if Jefferson can consistently show he's not just a moron out there, but he hasn't come close to that. Speak of Millsap's inconsistencies all you want, but if you're contrasting, Jefferson has been worse.
To be clear, I'm not advocating that either of them have to go. Millsap is a fantastic complement at the 4 with his ability to mesh in an offense (make the right pass, take shots in the flow, has range, can rebound the ball offensively) or a defensive scheme, but the 5 needs to be worthy of attention AND be able to capitalize on it consistently for Millsap's strength (complementary play) to play out. If anything, I'm not sure why Millsap isn't shooting more 3s. His stroke is pure and strong and he shows he's not afraid and can hit his shots on very strong numbers.
The bottom line is Jefferson needs to prove it. That's the key. If he does, no one has to go anywhere. I'm just skeptical.
To be clear, I'm not advocating that either of them have to go. Millsap is a fantastic complement at the 4 with his ability to mesh in an offense (make the right pass, take shots in the flow, has range, can rebound the ball offensively) or a defensive scheme, but the 5 needs to be worthy of attention AND be able to capitalize on it consistently for Millsap's strength (complementary play) to play out. If anything, I'm not sure why Millsap isn't shooting more 3s. His stroke is pure and strong and he shows he's not afraid and can hit his shots on very strong numbers.
The bottom line is Jefferson needs to prove it. That's the key. If he does, no one has to go anywhere. I'm just skeptical.
vegas
Well-Known Member
Jefferson--that is Richard
I have not followed RJ at all since the Spurs picked him up last year, but I do remember all the hype of how the spurs would be very tough last year. Now we know those predictions were right, but off by a year.
Just for fun, I looked at what players do after trades and came up with this link.
https://www.48minutesofhell.com/spurs-stats-team-chemistry-richard-jefferson
It's some info to chew on, but unfortunately it looks like its pretty rare for a player's stats to increase after a trade. It looks like they usually get a little bump the year after the trade. As for RJ it looks like the biggest stat difference is his 3pt% is 10% higher.
It would be interesting to see the effects on a team basis (winning %) the second year. Where would we be without AL -- This year I think we are actually better off. In the future I think it gets a bit muddy with the deciding factor being future chemistry. I think another trade only sets us back even more in the short term and possibly the long term. The caveat is certain no-brainer superstars that are only traded once in a blue moon.
I have not followed RJ at all since the Spurs picked him up last year, but I do remember all the hype of how the spurs would be very tough last year. Now we know those predictions were right, but off by a year.
Just for fun, I looked at what players do after trades and came up with this link.
https://www.48minutesofhell.com/spurs-stats-team-chemistry-richard-jefferson
It's some info to chew on, but unfortunately it looks like its pretty rare for a player's stats to increase after a trade. It looks like they usually get a little bump the year after the trade. As for RJ it looks like the biggest stat difference is his 3pt% is 10% higher.
It would be interesting to see the effects on a team basis (winning %) the second year. Where would we be without AL -- This year I think we are actually better off. In the future I think it gets a bit muddy with the deciding factor being future chemistry. I think another trade only sets us back even more in the short term and possibly the long term. The caveat is certain no-brainer superstars that are only traded once in a blue moon.
JAZZFAN_2814
Active Member
Which, if accepted, is its own indictment.
There are teams aiming for the lotto that have more to look forward to. Millsap as the team's second option is a punchline to a joke called 'the new, improved Utah Jazz'.
Disgusting.
I have little to no qualm with what you see in this regard. I see it as well.
The only thing I would add, is that Utah management, no matter what they try and pass off, clearly wanted Jefferson to be the replacement for Boozer.
Then again, they had thought that Millsap could fill that role back in 2009, or that Sloan's offensive aptitude could hide the truth from a gullible fanbase.
Overall, my point is not how good Jefferson is, but how frightening Utah's predicament will be if he doesn't get a hell of a lot better.
On the contrary, I think Millsap, even by way of his inconsistencies, is being very consistent. It's pretty predictable.
Jefferson's the one that's the contradiction, to the point where I still have no handle on what he's worth. But he is the player with the better embedded potential, the one that has the necessary gifts to be the lynchpin for a postup offense.
That doesn't mean that he ever will be. But that's a separate matter from Millsap, and should be treated as such.
If the Jazz were to move Jefferson, assuming he never finds his brain, or testes, around the basket on either side, I wouldn't automatically disagree with that, nor with keeping Millsap.
The point at this moment may just be how big of a mistake it was getting rid of Boozer for, even if the Jazz move pieces for a frontcourt standard, who is there to get? Utah's offensive needs in this area are not easy to fill, and I fear they made a rather big mistake.