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What is the jazz doing!

Thee Idiotic Minivan K said:
What if the conspiracy theory of the nba sometimes manipulating the draft lottery are true? I could see us just missing the playoffs or losing in the playin and the nba rewarding us for not shamelessly tanking and also taking into account the big problem with load management, seeing the jazz do it as little as anyone in the league, maybe we get rewarded with the top pick? Just saying, it could happen. It feels like my only hope.
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They arent true.


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Nate505 said:
They're trying to win basketball games. It's what professional athletes want to do in theory.

I mean, if you want to see the Jazz lose, be a Rockets fan or something.
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Its more complex than that. Im about as big of a jazz fan as there ever was and i was cheering, rooting, and hoping for losses when corbin was coach and we were destined to suck that season. It was one season. I was back to wanting to win every game the next year. And maybe if we would have played the youth instead of jamaam tinsley, richard jefferson, and josh howard then maybe we would have drafted joel embiid instead of dante exum.


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HermanG said:
Long post coming up... but I decided to put this on paper for myself to see pros and cons for different paths.

First off top 5 is really out of the question as is going for a chip... so our options are:

1) Full tank, offload vets without getting any playable guys in return and maximize current draft position and future assets: Lottery odds in 6-7 range
2) Semi-tank, offload key vets but try to get playable young guys (and picks): Lottery odds in 8-10 range (Lauri, Kessler, Ochai and Sexton likely prevent us from dropping lower than that)
3) Stay opportunistic, worst case get eliminated in play-in: Lottery odds in 11-14 range. Best case we end up where option #2 or #4 would lead us without pushing it:
4) Trade for upgrades and try to make the playoffs: Pick likely in 15-22 range, unless there is an unlikely series win. Not "win now" level investment, but clear buyer trades still.

So the list below has notes with + indicating best for this aspect, - indicating worst for this aspect and N means noteworthy but not best or worst. Please give me your thoughts about it

Notes for #1:
+ Best case is 37% odds for top 4 and 9% odds for #1 (6th in lottery odds)
+ We maximize our draft assets this way
N We give most playing time for all the young guys that we end up keeping. However this is not the best option for youth minutes (option #2 is).
- Silver is watching, and I doubt we would get away with blatant tanking
- Lauri and Kessler development suffers the most with dumping the vets
- We would have to sell at the worst value (as long as we sell them)
- We would end up only having players we dont want to trade away or who are not worth anything in packages, which limits our future trade options
- Likely worst on cap space planning, as would probably contain taking in unwanted contracts

Notes for #2:
+ We might find some new keepers from trading vets if we get young guys back, and we do this without "paying for them" (like in option #4, which is still better for finding future starters)
+ We get best youth minutes with this option
N We dont have to force offload and likely end up keeping some players with trade value for offseason
N Lottery odds for top 4 are still around 20%, which is twice as good as they would be in play-in. However only 1.2 teams in two years from this range reach top 4 according to the odds.
N We still get positive return on draft assets
N Lottery odds essentially mean 1 team every other year reaches top 4. Most likely pick is in that same 8-10 ranges as lottery odds, which means top talent is out of reach

Notes for #3:
+ We trade with best value and get to be picky what deals we choose
+ We can still end up in path #2 or #4 (so outside of play in and in playoffs) with this approach
+ Best option for future salary cap planning as we can plan our moves based on that without pushing either way
N We will have very low odds for top 4 in lottery. Still guaranteed 11-14 though (good players are also quite often found here)
- We might end up not making any trades, which prevents us from finding new potential keepers or starters

Notes for #4:
+ Best for information about where we are right now and what we need going forward
+ Lets us evaluate how well Lauri and Kessler (and others) fair in the playoffs, confirming (or questionning) the investment in them
+ Hardys system goes through the 7 game series test and we see if it holds water
+ Best option for development of Lauri and Kessler (keeping maximum talent around them)
+ Likeliest option to find us more future starters (targeted upgrade trades are more likely to be better than project youngsters)
+ Gives us the best pool of players to work with in the offseason
- We will not be able to add top talent through draft with our own pick at least
- Worst for youth minutes and Ochai and Sexton development for instance
- Worst for future draft assets
- Market prices are high so targeted upgrades might end up costly (risky if they dont fit)
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Really just me and Borat er @Maneesh with the likes? I didn’t think the guy could actually read, er English I mean.;)
 
fishonjazz said:
Its more complex than that. Im about as big of a jazz fan as there ever was and i was cheering, rooting, and hoping for losses when corbin was coach and we were destined to suck that season. It was one season. I was back to wanting to win every game the next year. And maybe if we would have played the youth instead of jamaam tinsley, richard jefferson, and josh howard then maybe we would have drafted joel embiid instead of dante exum.


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Yeah, that was the last tanking season. What a joy, wanting to lose games to get a crack and NBA greats like Andrew Wiggins and Jabri Parker. Ohh, and Exum who was a great prospect too. Supposedly.
 
Nate505 said:
Yeah, that was the last tanking season. What a joy, wanting to lose games to get a crack and NBA greats like Andrew Wiggins and Jabri Parker. Ohh, and Exum who was a great prospect too. Supposedly.
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That draft was one of the biggest hyped and worst let down in NBA history. Wiggins, smart and Aaron Gordon are a role players. Jabari and Exum are gone and Embiid and Jokic are all that remains. Well besides Randle. But he’s on the Knicks. And **** that franchise.
 
Nate505 said:
Yeah, that was the last tanking season. What a joy, wanting to lose games to get a crack and NBA greats like Andrew Wiggins and Jabri Parker. Ohh, and Exum who was a great prospect too. Supposedly.
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I had fun that season. Should have lost just a few more though


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Nate505 said:
Why? What are the guarantees the Jazz would have took Embid if they had the 1 or 2 pick?
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What are the guarantees that the Jazz are ever better than a 2nd round playoff loss, if we go win now? Oh, we can use all of our assets to trade for a player? What player are we trading for that can take us to the next level. OG Anunoby? John Collins? That's the type of player we can trade for. Not a superstar. We certainly are not getting superstar FAs. That type of decision leads to a 2nd round loss. You didn't even want to trade Donovan or Rudy. Look at how that would of turned out compared to the where we are today. I think I can say that you were wrong about that outcome. Funny how exciting this year has been compared to last year, despite the Jazz taking a "tanking" mentality by trading our stars. We had to go backwards or "tank" by trading them in order to move forward. Addition by subtraction, a concept that has been around forever in all aspects of life. Middling out is the absolute worst situation. As much as you can't understand "tanking," I equally, if not more, cannot understand you enjoying being a play-in or 14 pick type team? The only thing I understand is that it's comfortable, boring, stagnant, lazy, etc. There is no enjoyment for me and a lot of others in that scenario, unless it is a stepping stone back up from "tanking."
 
I'll preface this by saying we absolutely made the right choice to take the deals for Donovan and Rudy, but I have found myself curious what this year could have looked like if we kept them. Mostly the West is so weak right now, I wonder what we could have done just by making a coaching change. I think we are seeing that Donovan, Royce, and Bogey are having great years. Gobert is having a down year though.

I think the most likely outcome would be a top 3 seed in the West, but early playoff exit. What do you all think would have happened this year if we kept the band together?
 
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