Where Do the Jazz Finish?

[franklin]

I think we end up out of the playoffs. I just hope we really make an effort to make some noise in the off-season. A prime Rudy, alongside an improving Mitchell + a mid- to top-range all-star = serious contender. Right now we are seeing Mitchell trying to get use to being the focal point of opposing offenses and getting through the inevitable rookie mistakes, and no one else to really take up any slack or give him a break from being "the man". We need to find a way to sign a star on some level. A player like Kawhi would send us over the top. I am not even looking for LeBron or Curry or anything crazy, but a 2nd tier guy would be great for us.

Wouldn't it be something if we could pry AD away from the Pelicans or something crazy? That would rock.

Kawhi is the 3rd most important player in the league. Utah isn't getting that.

 

[franklin]

If you look at the NBA now you will see every team has a person planted in the corner standing. If you tried the old school offense of only 1 out the defense will sag in and jazz will never score. It's the evolution of the game. We don't have 3 stationary players. You have 1 in the corner, a ball handler, 2 screeners and a cutter/spot up shooter depending on read. The old simple and effective isn't so effective in today's NBA.

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We do when Favors and Gobert play together. Favors plants underneath the basket where he ends up in the blind spot of his defender who can't watch him and the ball. A guy in each corner. Gobert and ball handler play p-n-r, hoping for a bit of high-lowish action of dumping off to Favors. Pretty basic offense.

 

[cmw]

That's just one set. You see a lot double picks with gobert and favors. You get gobert rolling, favors spotting up, a ball handler who has drive, pass, 3 pt shot option. With 2 others cutting or running to 3 point line. There's a ton of reads and variances of this set alone. Doesn't seem all that simple when there are so many options and reads with 5 guys all having to know what the other is doing. Can't just pick the most basic set they run, and then say the whole offense is simple and standing around.

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[franklin]

Flex may not be effective, but I think UCLA would work great.

We ran a lot of UCLA in college and ran our big man a bit farther out as he could shoot. Outside of the cuts which terminated on wings, we effectively ran 4 out and 1 in, but the cuts are what keeps a defender on his toes.

Hell, even horns sets we run have very few wrinkles. A well run horns offense has so many options. We typically run 3 options out of horns when we run it.

Most of the Jazz' HORNS is little more than setting up the weave. I haven't seen much "2 up" or the any elevator play for example, instead they run DHO and weave over and over and over. They mainly only run traditional HORNS triangle and double drag, then go into weave. They're trying to use "post look" with Favors, but he must have that corner 3 for any effectiveness (which would destroy against small lineups & WTF is QS thinking not posting up Favors more last game?).

 

[NUMBERICA]

I'm worried.

 

[Coach Ellis]

I'm worried.

Games remaining against teams with a winning record. . .

Jazz - 10/21 - 48%
(Minnesota, @Indiana, @New Orleans, @San Antonio, @Golden State, Boston, @Minnesota, LA Clippers, Golden State, @Portland)
4 home / 6 away vs plus .500 teams
7 home / 4 away vs. sub .500 teams

Nuggets - 13/21 - 62%
(@Cleveland, Cleveland, @Miami, @Washington, @Philadelphia, @Toronto, @OKC, Milwaukee, Indiana, Minnesota, LA Clippers, Portland, @Minnesota)
6 home / 7 away vs. plus .500 teams
3 home / 5 away vs. sub .500 teams

Pelicans - 14/21 - 66%
(@LA Clippers, Washington, Utah, @San Antonio, Houston, Boston, Indiana, @Houston, Portland, @Cleveland, OKC, @Golden State, @LA Clippers, San Antonio)
9 home / 5 away vs. plus .500 teams
3 home / 4 away vs. sub .500 teams

Thunder - 14/20 - 70%
(@Portland, Houston, San Antonio, LA Clippers, @Toronto, @Boston, Miami, Portland, @San Antonio, Denver, @New Orleans, Golden State, @Houston, @Miami)
7 home / 7 away vs. plus .500 teams
3 home / 3 away vs. sub .500 teams

Spurs - 14/20 - 70%
(@Golden State, @OKC, @Houston, New Orleans, Minnesota, Golden State, Washington, Utah, @Milwaukee, @Washington, OKC, Houston, @LA Clippers, Portland, @New Orleans)
7 home / 7 away vs. plus .500 teams
4 home / 2 away vs. sub .500 teams

Blazers - 15/21 - 71%
(Minnesota, OKC, Golden State, Miami, Cleveland, @LA Clippers, Houston, Boston, @OKC, @New Orleans, LA Clippers, @Houston, @San Antonio, @Denver, Utah)
9 home / 6 away vs. plus .500 teams
4 home / 2 away vs. sub .500 teams

Clippers - 17/23 - 74%
(Houston, New Orleans, Cleveland, @Houston, @OKC, Portland, @Minnesota, @Milwaukee, @Indiana, @Toronto, Milwaukee, @Portland, Indiana, San Antonio,@ Utah, Denver, New Orleans)
9 home / 8 away vs. plus .500 teams
4 home / 2 away vs. sub .500 teams

 

[Coach Ellis]

As I see it, New Orleans is in. I can’t see them faltering too much. After Utah, they have (IMO) the easiest schedule to finish the year.

I think New Orleans, San Antonio and OKC are all pretty safely going to make it.

I think that the final two spots will be a bloodbath between the Blazers, Nuggets, Clippers and Jazz. Utah has a great shot at making it just based on strength of schedule, but they HAVE to win against the sub .500 teams and they have to win their home games.

 

[SCS]

Games remaining against teams with a winning record. . .

Jazz - 10/21 - 48%
(Minnesota, @Indiana, @New Orleans, @San Antonio, @Golden State, Boston, @Minnesota, LA Clippers, Golden State, @Portland)
4 home / 6 away vs plus .500 teams
7 home / 4 away vs. sub .500 teams

Nuggets - 13/21 - 62%
(@Cleveland, Cleveland, @Miami, @Washington, @Philadelphia, @Toronto, @OKC, Milwaukee, Indiana, Minnesota, LA Clippers, Portland, @Minnesota)
6 home / 7 away vs. plus .500 teams
3 home / 5 away vs. sub .500 teams

Pelicans - 14/21 - 66%
(@LA Clippers, Washington, Utah, @San Antonio, Houston, Boston, Indiana, @Houston, Portland, @Cleveland, OKC, @Golden State, @LA Clippers, San Antonio)
9 home / 5 away vs. plus .500 teams
3 home / 4 away vs. sub .500 teams

Thunder - 14/20 - 70%
(@Portland, Houston, San Antonio, LA Clippers, @Toronto, @Boston, Miami, Portland, @San Antonio, Denver, @New Orleans, Golden State, @Houston, @Miami)
7 home / 7 away vs. plus .500 teams
3 home / 3 away vs. sub .500 teams

Spurs - 14/20 - 70%
(@Golden State, @OKC, @Houston, New Orleans, Minnesota, Golden State, Washington, Utah, @Milwaukee, @Washington, OKC, Houston, @LA Clippers, Portland, @New Orleans)
7 home / 7 away vs. plus .500 teams
4 home / 2 away vs. sub .500 teams

Blazers - 15/21 - 71%
(Minnesota, OKC, Golden State, Miami, Cleveland, @LA Clippers, Houston, Boston, @OKC, @New Orleans, LA Clippers, @Houston, @San Antonio, @Denver, Utah)
9 home / 6 away vs. plus .500 teams
4 home / 2 away vs. sub .500 teams

Clippers - 17/23 - 74%
(Houston, New Orleans, Cleveland, @Houston, @OKC, Portland, @Minnesota, @Milwaukee, @Indiana, @Toronto, Milwaukee, @Portland, Indiana, San Antonio,@ Utah, Denver, New Orleans)
9 home / 8 away vs. plus .500 teams
4 home / 2 away vs. sub .500 teams

Looking at this list I expect the Spurs and Thunder to be safely in and the Clippers to definitely be out. That leaves the Jazz, Nuggets, Pelicans and Blazers to fight for the three remaining spots. Of those 4 teams I trust a healthy Utah Jazz to win the most games. New Orleans is wildly inconsistent. Denver has 12 of their last 21 on the road and they are an abysmal 9-19 on the road this year. And Portland has a brutal schedule. Meanwhile the Jazz have been consistently good since the return of Gobert and have the easiest remaining schedule. I think the Jazz get in even if it's close. Two out of the three of Portland, Denver, New Orleans get in too. The other just misses the playoffs.

 

[fishonjazz]

I’m still pissed about losing that Houston game the way we did

 

[NUMBERICA]

The Jazz are playing like ****. The SOS argument is a loser one.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The Minnesota game feels like a must win.

National TV
Their best player is down
Next two games after that are Kings/Magic, so an opportunity to get a new streak heading into the Indiana road game.

 

[FalseFlagg K]

Yep if we can’t win the Minny game forget it