What's new
By:

Which Rookie Do You Want for Donovan?

Knicks give up the 1st overall pick in a package for Donovan. Who are you selecting?

  • Chet Holmgren

  • Paolo Banchero

  • Jaden Ivey

  • Jabari Smith

  • Other

Results are only viewable after voting.
Chet but wait for a year and get Wembanyama.

Wembanyama is going to be so great.
 
No team is going to trade a top 5 draft pick in this class for a Guy who is a volume scorer and a bad defender..Mitchell most overrated player currently in the NBA
 
so close between jabari, paolo and chet. gun to my head, i probably take jabari. but there is a part of me that thinks keegan should be in that conversation. there will be multiple teams that regret not taking that dude.
 
anyone know the odds of the #1 pick becoming a multi-year all star? I imaging it’s likely higher than the rest of the picks but how does it actually play out?
 
jope said:
anyone know the odds of the #1 pick becoming a multi-year all star? I imaging it’s likely higher than the rest of the picks but how does it actually play out?
Click to expand...
That is a more interesting question than I first thought: The answer is ~50% (counting from 2000).

I think the better question is what are the odds that a 1st tier NBA player/legit superstar/perennial MVP candidate/top-10 player is drafted in the top-3*? Cuz Mitchell isn't that and won't be that either. A bit of a one-in-hand vs two-in-the-bush kind of scenario, but the Jazz would not be weighing this if there weren't valid concerns about the longterm prospects of keeping him (his best teammates are set to age-out soon, multi-year rumors leaking that he's got a foot out the door, friction between his best teammate).

All-in-all, I think this is the valid returning value on a Mitchell trade.
 
NUMBERICA said:
That is a more interesting question than I first thought: The answer is ~50% (counting from 2000).

I think the better question is what are the odds that a 1st tier NBA player/legit superstar/perennial MVP candidate/top-10 player is drafted in the top-3*? Cuz Mitchell isn't that and won't be that either. A bit of a one-in-hand vs two-in-the-bush kind of scenario, but the Jazz would not be weighing this if there weren't valid concerns about the longterm prospects of keeping him (his best teammates are set to age-out soon, multi-year rumors leaking that he's got a foot out the door, friction between his best teammate).

All-in-all, I think this is the valid returning value on a Mitchell trade.
Click to expand...
* Calculating this should be inverted: counting how many 1st tier players were drafted top-3 rather than how many of said picks become 1st tier as that is - as any bin would be - a very low number (though, you could do a comparative analysis in this way comparing top-3 picks to lottery, non-lottery 1st, or later).

From the vantage point of how many elite players were drafted top-3 in the last 20 years, let's say that this is the list you're working with
-Lebron James
-Giannis
-Steph Curry
-Kevin Durant
-James Harden (doesn't really belong on the list right this second, but recently enough and for long enough that I would consider him belonging)
-Joel Embiid
-Nikola Jokic
-Kawhi Leonard
-Anthony Davis
-... Luka? (right?)

Well from that group, we have:
Top-3: 6
Lottery: 2
Non-lottery 1st: 1
2nd round and later: 1

You'll get a similar outcome if you swap a player from the list here or there with Jayson Tatum, Chris Paul, or Paul George (I think it falls off after this point).

If you're counting top-3 versus the field, that's probably greater than or equal to 50% (what would be called a full majority, not merely a plurality) of elite talent is drafted in the top 3.
 
Last edited:
seattlejazzfan said:
so close between jabari, paolo and chet. gun to my head, i probably take jabari. but there is a part of me that thinks keegan should be in that conversation. there will be multiple teams that regret not taking that dude.
Click to expand...
Anything possible but I would be shocked if Keegan is the best player from the class.
 
NUMBERICA said:
* Calculating this should be inverted: counting how many 1st tier players were drafted top-3 rather than how many of said picks become 1st tier as that is - as any bin would be - a very low number (though, you could do a comparative analysis in this way comparing top-3 picks to lottery, non-lottery 1st, or later).

From the vantage point of how many elite players were drafted top-3 in the last 20 years, let's say that this is the list you're working with
-Lebron James
-Giannis
-Steph Curry
-Kevin Durant
-James Harden (doesn't really belong on the list right this second, but recently enough and for long enough that I would consider him belonging)
-Joel Embiid
-Nikola Jokic
-Kawhi Leonard
-Anthony Davis
-... Luka? (right?)

Well from that group, we have:
Top-3: 6
Lottery: 2
Non-lottery 1st: 1
2nd round and later: 1

You'll get a similar outcome if you swap a player from the list here or there with Jayson Tatum, Chris Paul, or Paul George (I think it falls off after this point).

If you're counting top-3 versus the field, that's probably greater than or equal to 50% of elite talent is drafted in the top 3.
Click to expand...
Really great research and thought process. I like it.
 
NUMBERICA said:
That is a more interesting question than I first thought: The answer is ~50% (counting from 2000).

I think the better question is what are the odds that a 1st tier NBA player/legit superstar/perennial MVP candidate/top-10 player is drafted in the top-3*? Cuz Mitchell isn't that and won't be that either. A bit of a one-in-hand vs two-in-the-bush kind of scenario, but the Jazz would not be weighing this if there weren't valid concerns about the longterm prospects of keeping him (his best teammates are set to age-out soon, multi-year rumors leaking that he's got a foot out the door, friction between his best teammate).

All-in-all, I think this is the valid returning value on a Mitchell trade.
Click to expand...
Yeah was definitely more interested on if it’s a risky return of value or not. Thanks for the insight
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page
Back
Top