Who will be the starting point guard on opening night?

[NUMBERICA]

Why do you consider the roster non-sensical? Just curious, since I dont see it that way.

Its just missing a key piece, which I'm sure they are sniffing around for.

The roster is extremely lopsided (to the point of potentially log-jamming our top-ten pick) towards big forwards and bigs that are play finishers but need good guard play to set them up, except the guards are almost all combo guards where none are obviously of starting caliber. Our only wing that appears to be NBA caliber is Ochai and he is also a guy that needs his table set. Our best guard is a guy best-known and best-suited as a 6th man on a good team.

I feel I should note that your question prompted me to guffaw. The roster is goofy.

 

[NUMBERICA]

The last game of Clarkson's season he had 12 assist. I think right now he's probably the best option if you are trying to put out the best possible lineup.

Clarkson is clearly the best guard we currently have.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The #1 Ochai Hater strikes again.

But the reasons you would want to pencil in Ochai starting over Sexton/THT/Keyonte is that he profiles as an ideal 3&D type wing and you need someone out there who can matchup with star 2-guards/wings. If you're rolling with some combo of Dunn/Clarkson/Sexton, how are you matching up with the playoff teams in the West? Seems pretty difficult.

You also need the floor spacing Ochai provides. He has a quick trigger off the catch and can be a real C&S weapon. THT/Dunn are negative floor spacers and Sexton can shoot it when open, but its' really not his game. If we are going to lean in to these athletic bigs, we are going to need spacing.

I understand the fit arguments with Ochai... there are some issues though if JC is your only real ball handler passer in the starting lineup he has to really fight his nature and set guys up or the ball movement will be putrid. Sexton seemed to do well fighting his nature when he filled in as starter so maybe he gets a shot and you have multiple ball handlers or guys that can penetrate.

Its more the narrative that Ochai has to start... why? We kinda know what we are getting there and its a matter of degree... he also isn't some huge asset or contract that could lose or gain a ton of value imo. If Sexton started and was putting up like 18-19 and 6-7 assists on efficient scoring... on a functional starting unit... he becomes a much better trade asset than he is now. If Ochai starts I think it gets harder for Key to get time. We have a lot riding on Key and need to get a good idea of what we are getting and how ready or not ready he is. I think he's much more critical to the franchise than Ochai.

Its just weird messaging to me that Ochai is a starter and he's untouchable in a trade... etc. He's a rookie/second year guy who's fine.. shrug.

 

[HermanG]

I think it is more just opportunity and they will figure out fit later... but you can only do that so many times before it becomes an issue. He's a good player... I just would have tried to find a different good player that fits better. I fear they are doing the same thing with Tyler Herro as well as the rumors have been pretty consistent there.

Again... don't think its catastrophic... think we could end up getting out of his deal later if it isn't working... just don't see it as an awesome asset play.

I see and understand your perspective, and signing him made much more sense before we drafted Hendricks.

I think the skillset is still definitely something they want and I suspect the idea is to get Lauri more involved as a ball handler and play him as a wing on offense and weakside defender on defense... so the other forward needs to play well off ball on offense and defend wings/perimeter on defense.

Vando didnt work because of his limited non-spacing offense was a poor fit with Kessler. Collins provides a better skillset for that.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I understand the fit arguments with Ochai... there are some issues though if JC is your only real ball handler passer in the starting lineup he has to really fight his nature and set guys up or the ball movement will be putrid. Sexton seemed to do well fighting his nature when he filled in as starter so maybe he gets a shot and you have multiple ball handlers or guys that can penetrate.

Its more the narrative that Ochai has to start... why? We kinda know what we are getting there and its a matter of degree... he also isn't some huge asset or contract that could lose or gain a ton of value imo. If Sexton started and was putting up like 18-19 and 6-7 assists on efficient scoring... on a functional starting unit... he becomes a much better trade asset than he is now. If Ochai starts I think it gets harder for Key to get time. We have a lot riding on Key and need to get a good idea of what we are getting and how ready or not ready he is. I think he's much more critical to the franchise than Ochai.

Its just weird messaging to me that Ochai is a starter and he's untouchable in a trade... etc. He's a rookie/second year guy who's fine.. shrug.

You dont think Ochai could gain huge value? If he can become a dude who can shoot 7 threes per game and shooting above 36%, that would make him a pretty valuable player and I think that's within reach (far more than the Sexton one IMO). In SL he showed you that he has put an emphasis on your biggest bugaboo, STOCKS and general off-ball activity.

 

[NUMBERICA]

The #1 Ochai Hater strikes again.

But the reasons you would want to pencil in Ochai starting over Sexton/THT/Keyonte is that he profiles as an ideal 3&D type wing and you need someone out there who can matchup with star 2-guards/wings. If you're rolling with some combo of Dunn/Clarkson/Sexton, how are you matching up with the playoff teams in the West? Seems pretty difficult.

You also need the floor spacing Ochai provides. He has a quick trigger off the catch and can be a real C&S weapon. THT/Dunn are negative floor spacers and Sexton can shoot it when open, but its' really not his game. If we are going to lean in to these athletic bigs, we are going to need spacing.

You start Dunn and have him matchup with the best guard.

Ochai was bad on the ball as a 23 year old in his 2nd summer league, he’s not making the jump to a creator and that’s something we need at the guard spots with our frontcourt. He should play a lot of minutes with KO off the bench and also spend some time at the 3.

Hardy is going to have to be flexible on his feet with his rotations because there basically isn’t an obvious 5-man lineup that is properly balanced.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

You start Dunn and have him matchup with the best guard.

Ochai was bad on the ball as a 23 year old in his 2nd summer league, he’s not making the jump to a creator and that’s something we need at the guard spots with our frontcourt. He should play a lot of minutes with KO off the bench and also spend some time at the 3.

Hardy is going to have to be flexible on his feet with his rotations because there basically isn’t an obvious 5-man lineup that is properly balanced.

You start Dunn and you are playing a starting lineup with 3 non-spacers and it's not like Dunn is a plus creator, so you're just putting more weight on Clarkson/Lauri to operate in bad-space with no one to kick out to. Why not lean into the better shooter?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I see and understand your perspective, and signing him made much more sense before we drafted Hendricks.

Whether it was Hendricks or Walker I think they could have foreseen the possibility of drafting a forward.

I think the skillset is still definitely something they want and I suspect the idea is to get Lauri more involved as a ball handler and play him as a wing on offense and weakside defender on defense... so the other forward needs to play well off ball on offense and defend wings/perimeter on defense.

Collins is better guarding bigs/4s... I think Lauri is better protecting the rim but will also be better on the perimeter and draw those assignments.

Vando didnt work because of his limited non-spacing offense was a poor fit with Kessler. Collins provides a better skillset for that.

Vando had multiple issues... defense at the rim, shooting and finishing. Collins is a next level finisher... that's great. Shooting has been bad but maybe he figures it out... the finger is a condition that he will live with. I just think if you wanted a 3 and D guy there were guys that fill that roll better. For me... my guess is if they were thinking fit it would be in small ball 5 out lineups where he is a roll man... those will be bench lineups and that is what he brings that a guy like Bruce Brown does not.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Maybe Dunn is the next thing I'm super wrong on and he is actually what he showed post- ASB, but I just doubt it. The guy has a career average of -3.1 OBPM and he somehow fluked himself into a really good 24 games.

If the options are somewhat similar, I'd rather lean into developing the young talent and not the 30 year old PG with a 1 year deal.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

You start Dunn and you are playing a starting lineup with 3 non-spacers and it's not like Dunn is a plus creator, so you're just putting more weight on Clarkson/Lauri to operate in bad-space with no one to kick out to. Why not lean into the better shooter?

Dunn is a better ball handler and defender... not that I'm saying that is more important than shooting but that is the idea. He is a much better creator/playmaker than Ochai. He isn't a development priority so I'm cool either way. If you had KO out there then Dunn makes more sense... also if you have KO out there Ochai makes more sense... its just kind of the John Collins conundrum. I'm guessing they will try multiple configurations the first 10-20 games. If you start with Ochai or Sexton on opening night a move to the bench will be viewed as a demotion... not the end of the world but something to consider.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Dunn is a better ball handler and defender... not that I'm saying that is more important than shooting but that is the idea. He is a much better creator/playmaker than Ochai. He isn't a development priority so I'm cool either way. If you had KO out there then Dunn makes more sense... also if you have KO out there Ochai makes more sense... its just kind of the John Collins conundrum. I'm guessing they will try multiple configurations the first 10-20 games. If you start with Ochai or Sexton on opening night a move to the bench will be viewed as a demotion... not the end of the world but something to consider.

As I said in my last post, Dunn has a career average of -3.1 OBPM. His entire career he has tanked his team's offense. If I had to bet, I would bet he's closer to what he has shown for most of his career than what he showed in the last 24 games. So the playmaking angle is a bit lost on me, but I get the defensive argument.

 

[NUMBERICA]

You start Dunn and you are playing a starting lineup with 3 non-spacers and it's not like Dunn is a plus creator, so you're just putting more weight on Clarkson/Lauri to operate in bad-space with no one to kick out to. Why not lean into the better shooter?

Don’t ask me, man. The roster is clown shoes. Every lineup decision with the best players has trade offs that at best result in very slim marginal changes in a vacuum.

This team will sink or swim based on tailoring the rotation to the opponent. Well, that, and praying that Dunn can sustain his shooting from last year and that Collins retains his late-season shooting or builds on it.

Gonna be an interesting season.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

You dont think Ochai could gain huge value? If he can become a dude who can shoot 7 threes per game and shooting above 36%, that would make him a pretty valuable player and I think that's within reach (far more than the Sexton one IMO). In SL he showed you that he has put an emphasis on your biggest bugaboo, STOCKS and general off-ball activity.

I think he has a lot of potential as a guy that can shoot 7-8 threes at a 38-40% clip. The STOCKS is just a symptom of my issue with his defense. His defense is okay... hopefully it gets to really good. If he does that his value increases but a bench role where he is getting 18 minutes a night does not crush his value like it would a guy you are paying 18M a year for. He is at a point in his career where he can play off the bench without it pushing his value one way or the other.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

As I said in my last post, Dunn has a career average of -3.1 OBPM. His entire career he has tanked his team's offense. If I had to bet, I would bet he's closer to what he has shown for most of his career than what he showed in the last 24 games. So the playmaking angle is a bit lost on me, but I get the defensive argument.

its ballhandling and playmaking... and I get he hasn't been a good offensive player... but when you compare his ballhandling, passing, playmaking to Ochai its significantly better. That is the case... not saying it is more important than shooting but its important when you already are deficient in the front court.

 

[Jingled]

The last game of Clarkson's season he had 12 assist. I think right now he's probably the best option if you are trying to put out the best possible lineup.

Could be. I just worry that if Clarkson is the starting point guard Ochai will be the starting shooting guard. I don't think a starting 5 of Clarkson/Ochai/Lauri/Collins/Kessler has nearly enough passing/playmaking.

 

[HermanG]

The roster is extremely lopsided (to the point of potentially log-jamming our top-ten pick) towards big forwards and bigs that are play finishers but need good guard play to set them up, except the guards are almost all combo guards where none are obviously of starting caliber. Our only wing that appears to be NBA caliber is Ochai and he is also a guy that needs his table set. Our best guard is a guy best-known and best-suited as a 6th man on a good team.

I feel I should note that your question prompted me to guffaw. The roster is goofy.

Laugh all you want but which is more non-sensical.... our roster or evaluating it as if it was even intended to be a finished product?

I think its very much primed to serve the future. We got a huge pool of very athletic young players with upside and also a long list of movable/matchable contracts.

 

[LogGrad98]

I would like to see

Dunn
JC
Lauri
Collins
Walker

That is really a solid starting 5. Excellent interior defense, shooting and outright scoring from 3 positions, and 2 and maybe even 3 playmakers on the floor. Sub in KO for Walker for an entirely different look at some point, then bring in the rookies and let them get at it. Could be a fun year really.

 

[cctrackstar]

All but one of the possible players are combo guards, and i hate starting combo guards. Unfortunately, the only non combo guard the team is on a make good contract and is close to thirty years old, seems a waste to give time to him and not use the twenty milish per year other players. it's really lose lose. our pg situation sucks.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Laugh all you want but which is more non-sensical.... our roster or evaluating it as if it was even intended to be a finished product?

I think its very much primed to serve the future. We got a huge pool of very athletic young players with upside and also a long list of movable/matchable contracts.

And now we're full circle; I said this in the post that you initially responded to:

The roster being non-sensical is evidence that another feel-it-out-then-maybe-tank-down-the-stretch strategy might be in play.

It looks to me like Ainge was just opportunistic with Collins and is being patient until opportunism actually yields a roster-construction that makes sense.

I never said it was a finished product. That's actually my point. Just prepare yourself that this season could be a letdown when the roster is clearly in the middle of a renovation.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Laugh all you want but which is more non-sensical.... our roster or evaluating it as if it was even intended to be a finished product?

I think its very much primed to serve the future. We got a huge pool of very athletic young players with upside and also a long list of movable/matchable contracts.

I think its good to get a lot of good players but if you are looking at it as a bunch of assets you can move later the issue becomes that those players will need to be placed in situations to succeed to increase their value. I don't know that they are being placed in situations to succeed based on fit/role/etc.

I get that its not a finished product for sure. I think a trade or two could change things... but not sure we have a trade in us until after the season starts.