I tend to agree with you that he isn't a lock. I might say his chances are closer to 50-60%, but yeah, certainly not a lock. There are six guys on that list he could make it over.
Uhh, 6? Only like two of those guys aren't guaranteed contracts (Mack and Johnson). So we have to cut those two players and only sign 1 FA for Bolomboy to have a spot to make the team.
Of course we all assume some sort of trade will happen involving Burke, so that adds a lot more uncertainty. Will we make use of our cap space to absorb a contract for a future asset? Will we simply bring back a player in a trade? Who knows, but I don't feel like the goal of the moves is to make sure a spot is open for Bolomboy (unless he really impressed at SL) but rather if a spot happens to be open we will sign him.