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Official NJ Nets Watch

I'm not going to get my hopes up too much about where we'll be slated to draft with our two picks (assuming we don't make the playoffs) but here's the thing.

Why not us?

Oftentimes, one or two teams jump the others and slip into the top three in the draft order. And if we have two picks worth of ping pong balls in the drawing, why can't it be us? Sure, we'll have lesser balls than other clubs who have just one pick but you get the point. Someone usually tends to slip in the top three so why not us?

Believe.
 
I'd like to thank Deron for shutting it down. Why keep playing with an injured wrist when the team is going to do nothing anyway? Kudos, Deron.
 
Ben10 said:
Because we are the Utah Jazz. And Stern would never let us be that lucky.
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Are you suggesting the lottery is fixed, or that Stern has god like powers to change the laws of physics?
 
Darkwing Duck said:
Nets are three games clear of both teams they're between in the win column. That draft slot seems pretty set.

I did a small bit of checking, but it seems as though head to head record isn't used for tiebreakers in case of a tie. Coin flips are used to break ties for non-integer averages of ping pong balls as well as draft position should neither team get one of the three lottery picks. That's encouraging if Toronto and New Jersey end up tied.

Still unlikely that the Nets move either way. If the Nets went 4-11 in their last 15, Toronto would have to go 7-7 in their last 14 to tie. Toronto has 9 of those on the road, and home dates with Miami and Orlando. One of them is against New Jersey, so a chance there.
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The Milwaukee game was HUGE!
I was never that worried about NJ making the playoffs. Indiana (or Charlotte) had a big enough lead to just hang on for the 8th spot. But with 5 wins in a row, the Nets were gaining ground on Detroit, Milwaukee and the Clippers. It was looking like a repeat of last season, when we were all talking about a #5 pic, and then New York played great down the stretch and everyone else just gave up. Nets have an easier schedule than the rest. I could still see them win about half their remaining games. In fact, Deron out might actually HELP the Nets. His shooting has been killing them.

I still see the Nets winning 28-30 games, with or without Deron. They won't drop below any other teams, but I think they'll probably pass up Detroit. The Clippers and Bucks just need to keep playing well at home to stay ahead of NJ. Jazz should have the #7 and #13 picks next year. And even in a weak draft, having multiple lottery picks and cap space could prove valuable, given that some teams will be looking to dump payroll under a new CBA.
 
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KrazeeEyezKilla said:
I'm not going to get my hopes up too much about where we'll be slated to draft with our two picks (assuming we don't make the playoffs) but here's the thing.

Why not us?

Oftentimes, one or two teams jump the others and slip into the top three in the draft order. And if we have two picks worth of ping pong balls in the drawing, why can't it be us? Sure, we'll have lesser balls than other clubs who have just one pick but you get the point. Someone usually tends to slip in the top three so why not us?

Believe.
Click to expand...
With the #6 and #12, we'd have about a 20% chance of jumping up into one of the top 3 picks. Not great, but we can always hope! Besides, I know a girl named Karma who owes us one for what she did to us in 2005.
 
#6 and #12 would give us a 24% chance of landing a top 3 pick (7% chance at #1, 7.9% chance at #2, 9.1% chance at #3).
 
GVC said:
#6 and #12 would give us a 24% chance of landing a top 3 pick (7% chance at #1, 7.9% chance at #2, 9.1% chance at #3).
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I don't think this is correct. It's like 5, 6, and 7 percent for the 7. The 12 is less than one percent across the board. So it should be something like 18% (Nets) + 2% (Us). But I've made plenty a math error before.
 
billyshelby said:
I don't think this is correct. It's like 5, 6, and 7 percent for the 7. The 12 is less than one percent across the board. So it should be something like 18% (Nets) + 2% (Us). But I've made plenty a math error before.
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GVC was correct. I was looking at 2010, but there was a tie for 6 and 7, which decreased the percentages at #6.

The #6 pick would give Utah a 21.5% chance of moving up to 1-3.
The #12 pick would give Utah a 2.5% chance of moving into the Top-3.

Here's a link.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery
 
It's some coincidence Orlando has moved up and landed TWO #1's in recent times. We've moved DOWN twice in our rare appearances in the lottery. Something smells with that...
 
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