Exum
- Thread starter Miggs
- Start date
Game6Conley
Well-Known Member
If he shoots it at ~40% from 3 next season (I think it's a plausible best-case scenario) the price could really get steep with him in RFA..
4yrs / $80,000,000.. Even if we're talking in low-volume attempts with him getting non-starter minutes off the bench..
Things could get real tricky if Utah wants to pinch pennies (by pennies i mean 10's of millions of dollars)
Obviously there's a great deal of other improvements he could make that'd increase his value too..
The FO has done an exceptional job here.. even if they end up paying the wrong players and letting the wrong ones walk, to get to this point(opening the playoff window with young players), with all these possibilities lined up is about all you could ask for as a fan. ( I still contend they'd make the playoffs next year even if Hill and Hayward walk - so I say the window is open)
Rudy deserves a lot of the credit tho if we're being honest, he is, in fact, the rising tide that lifts all boats. It must be explored how much players are benefiting from playing with him.............. ... . . . . .. . . (and contrasting that with potential replacements who could be had, who's games are suited to have synergy with Rudy and the style of play. So in the case of Exum a creative player who can exploit the defense more consistently)
4yrs / $80,000,000.. Even if we're talking in low-volume attempts with him getting non-starter minutes off the bench..
Things could get real tricky if Utah wants to pinch pennies (by pennies i mean 10's of millions of dollars)
Obviously there's a great deal of other improvements he could make that'd increase his value too..
The FO has done an exceptional job here.. even if they end up paying the wrong players and letting the wrong ones walk, to get to this point(opening the playoff window with young players), with all these possibilities lined up is about all you could ask for as a fan. ( I still contend they'd make the playoffs next year even if Hill and Hayward walk - so I say the window is open)
Rudy deserves a lot of the credit tho if we're being honest, he is, in fact, the rising tide that lifts all boats. It must be explored how much players are benefiting from playing with him.............. ... . . . . .. . . (and contrasting that with potential replacements who could be had, who's games are suited to have synergy with Rudy and the style of play. So in the case of Exum a creative player who can exploit the defense more consistently)
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Et tu Brute
Well-Known Member
I would extend Exum. I am a homer I know, but it's unlikely he will not improve next year at least partially.
He already might attract offers that will make the FO squirm.
Why not extend him to something you can stomach. 4 yrs 50 million would be reasonable for both parties. Means Exum is still young enough to earn a super sized contract if he is worth it in 5 years time. Also, cheap enough for Jazz if X doesn't develop as desired. I mean, look at Burks' contract!
He already might attract offers that will make the FO squirm.
Why not extend him to something you can stomach. 4 yrs 50 million would be reasonable for both parties. Means Exum is still young enough to earn a super sized contract if he is worth it in 5 years time. Also, cheap enough for Jazz if X doesn't develop as desired. I mean, look at Burks' contract!
Et tu Brute
Well-Known Member
So do you see him as more of a 2 guard?
I hope he is given a chance in the future to run the point. But for the purposes of his immediate career and team progression, I can see what you're saying.
4 years 64 mil seems like a good extension price to me.
What do you guys think? I can't remember the last time I saw Hill play.
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What do you guys think? I can't remember the last time I saw Hill play.
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Et tu Brute
Well-Known Member
Ok so maybe my scenario of 4/50 mil is something the FO would jump at
The Jazz have a fair bit of 'hand' in this negotiation. Exum is yet to convert his potential into effective production. His advanced metrics are pretty abysmal. I think Exum can have his cake and eat it too. An organisation that believes in him and wants to develop him long term. If he turns out to be a great player, he will be 26 when he can seek a max contract.
Game6Conley
Well-Known Member
Thats not an open market price... Thats a discount.. Here's the list of Potential guards on the market that summer..
There's going to be at least one team thats decent now but will burn out next season and go for a big rebuild.. The rising cap allows for bolder moves and if a team's been prudent and avoided bloated deals, a calculated overpay on Exum could pay off in spades. He's an easy sell to most fanbases, you can even spin the injury like it's one of the reasons they think he's got lots more upside. He'll still be younger than players drafted in 2018 too(college players only. 2017 is the final year of eligibility for international players from Exums born year '95)..
(The # after the position is current age)
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Ok so maybe my scenario of 4/50 mil is something the FO would jump at
The Jazz have a fair bit of 'hand' in this negotiation. Exum is yet to convert his potential into effective production. His advanced metrics are pretty abysmal. I think Exum can have his cake and eat it too. An organisation that believes in him and wants to develop him long term. If he turns out to be a great player, he will be 26 when he can seek a max contract.
I would love 4 years 50 mil.
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If we can get Exum at a discount price what's not to like? I threw out a number I'd be happy with and whether or not it's market price remains to be seen.
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Game6Conley
Well-Known Member
Ok so maybe my scenario of 4/50 mil is something the FO would jump at
The Jazz have a fair bit of 'hand' in this negotiation. Exum is yet to convert his potential into effective production. His advanced metrics are pretty abysmal. I think Exum can have his cake and eat it too. An organisation that believes in him and wants to develop him long term. If he turns out to be a great player, he will be 26 when he can seek a max contract.
No they dont LOL, whatever 'hand' they have is fleeting.. It's much more like the scene In Gladiator where the crowd forces Commodus to give the thumbs up...
He'll hit the market and then they'll have the choice to match or pass... That's how much hand they have.. there's fistfuls of examples every summer of this..
Or they could.. you know.. try to give him an extension before he hits RFA.
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Et tu Brute
Well-Known Member
Yeah I get that. But don't you think some of the ups and downs of Exum's season could spook him into looking to secure his medium term future and take the money now?
He could still bust out of the league at this point. (Not that I think he will).
Game6Conley
Well-Known Member
Terrible teams are ones usually close to being overthrown, they're also usually the ones with the worst perimeter defense... They're also usually ones who need a new direction and for new players the fans can root for. Exum being 22 and a good defensive player really, really should benefit from all this.. His positional flexibility helps too. He's an easy sell to a new fanbase.
I'm presuming a new regime with eyes on re-branding a paper thin defense of years past will look to pay Exum..
All he needs to do is shoot the 3 well and thats his golden ticket.. Thats enough to incite a bidding war..
There's teams out there that need to spend to meet the salary floor.. Not everyone's loaded with talent and soon to be strapped for $$$ like Utah..
Many of these teams haven't really revealed themselves yet. Who really knows how the bad teams now bounce back in that summer of 2018, going into 2019... There's gonna be some surprising bottom-feeders..
Miggs
Well-Known Member
You do realize that teams have spent like crazy the last couple years and will this coming summer and that the cap is barely going up, if at all, in the summer of 2018, right?
The number of teams that will have a lot of space, let alone to throw it around on the likes of an unproven Dante Exum, will be few and far between in my estimation.
Game6Conley
Well-Known Member
I'm guessing his endorsers don't want him Utah either.. Hate to say it, wouldn't wish it on him, but the Knicks could really use him. Much more so than Joakim Noah..
Game6Conley
Well-Known Member
I find this take to be obviously clouded by greed. Lets discuss margins. look at the margins the caps been jumping recently, is that really not enough for your personal preference?!?
The cap is projected to jump 7% next year, it jumped a record 34% last year and 11% in 2015.
This is EXTREMELY beneficial for the Jazz, they are positioned to tactfully exploit this better than most. Having a long list of good RFA's is ideal under all conditions but especially these ones.. I made the thread about the cap jump the other day and people didn't seem to think so.
I honestly don't even understand that line of thinking other than it's just a simple "We want MORE goddamnit"
JazzyFresh
Banned
Game6Conley
Well-Known Member
I'm not even sure its confidence tbh, he gets it, his body language after making a turnover is great, he hustles his *** off with no hesitation..
Not exactly sure what it is. His tools don't exactly make him unpredictable to defense, but I think its more like a muscle memory thing, he needs reps.. That'll be part of the sell if some team is gonna overpay him. 30mpg guaranteed.
Shooting is just one of those things, even world-class blackjack card counters can still lose over long periods of time(years) due to the luck of the draw. Even Steph Curry goes cold sometimes and I'm sure it gets in his head...
There was a recent story with Kyrie going onto the spurs floor after the game to get 3pt shots up, after they got smashed and shot like ****. sounds like an excuse so internet experts don't like to hear it but sometimes u just gotta get the bad ones out of your system. Thats why I say Exum best-case can shoot 40%.. Look at how George Hill is preserving his hot early season %'s.....
The low volume thing is a very explosive element. u really see it watching college ball..
Miggs
Well-Known Member
What in the holy hell are you talking about? The bottom line is the cap is only expected to rise about 1% next summer and by that time, most teams will have (overly) spent their asses off, thus making it impossible or very unlikely they will be able to sign someone (i.e., anyone) to a big contract, let alone an unproven Exum.