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Donald Fires FBI Director who's investigating Russian Election Hacking

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colton said:
In other news, Trump says he did not make tapes of the Comey conversations. Big surprise.
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Anyone else see that smoke coming from the White House chimney? Must have been another cold 85 degree night in Washington DC, right?
 
Dutch brought up an interesting point. Demos are 0-5 in special elections this year. Two thoughts:

#1 All of these districts were deep deep red districts. In fact, Price won the Georgia 6th in November by 20+ pts. Just 7 months later, Handel won it by 5? This has been true in all the other district races too. So clearly, Trump's unpopularity is taking its toll on these races. This leads one to theorize that in purple districts where the races are historically more competitive that Republicans will take it on the chin.

#2 0-5 for Demos does give Republicans a more reassuring feel that they might be able to prevent Demos from retaking the House in 2018. What these special elections have proven is that gerrymandering is a real problem. Despite the races becoming closer, being 5-0 means despite a 35 percent Republican president's approval rating leads to the question that "maybe policy and person just doesn't matter anymore?" Perhaps all that matters is your party's identity? Districts are appearing to become less competitive and despite some voters switching sides, there's already a strong enough Republican base that it really doesn't matter what happens, they'll always show up and vote Republican.

Karl Rove saw this in 2004. Traditionally candidates would start out extreme to gain the base of each party's support then pivot the opposite way in the generals to appeal to moderates. In 2004, Karl Rove predicted that Americans had become so polarized and so identified one way or another, that George W Bush didn't need to pivot left to attract moderates in the general. Instead, he kept pandering to high far right base.

Now what this means today? Less moderation and a continuing slippery slope to extremes.

For those of you looking to read up more on this:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/georgia-6-is-all-about-the-voters-who-reluctantly-backed-trump/
 
Keep in mind that Handel won that district by more than Trump did.

The Ds are flirting with the same trap the Rs got snared by. They risk anti-trump being their platform. They need to be smarter than that.
 
Stoked said:
Keep in mind that Handel won that district by more than Trump did.

The Ds are flirting with the same trap the Rs got snared by. They risk anti-trump being their platform. They need to be smarter than that.
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doesn't that support my thesis?

We have over 20 years of data from Newt to Handel. This district typically goes red by 20+ pts. So we can either assume (1) Ossoff was a kick *** candidate (despite losing by a greater margin than trump), (2) Handel was a historically bad candidate, or that (3) Trump's lack of popularity has even weighed down house representatives who typically win in blowouts. Ossoff clearly wasn't overwhelming popular, as you demonstrated.

So If you had to bet your next 3 paychecks, which one would you bet on?

And if you're still skeptical, look at the aggregate data from all 5 elections. All of them were much more competitive than they typically are. These districts are typically blood red, not purple. So are (1) democrats rolling kick *** candidates? (2) republicans providing historically bad ones? (3) Trump's unpopularity weighing down house republicans?

If you had to bet on it, which would you pick?
 
I think there was also a small dislike of the amount of "outside" money for a candidate that doesn't live in their zone who is backed by an unpopular Dem leadership.

I think Ossof lost to a combo of all that.

Trump is clearly unpopular. As he should be imo. But the Ds are running a losing strategy. They've proven that.

They need to step. Ack and rethink their brand. There are signs that some Ds are starting to realize this.

Either way it will be interesting.
 
Stoked said:
I think there was also a small dislike of the amount of "outside" money for a candidate that doesn't live in their zone who is backed by an unpopular Dem leadership.

I think Ossof lost to a combo of all that.

Trump is clearly unpopular. As he should be imo. But the Ds are running a losing strategy. They've proven that.

They need to step. Ack and rethink their brand. There are signs that some Ds are starting to realize this.

Either way it will be interesting.
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How are they running a losing strategy when they're gaining significant ground in even the reddest districts? They went from -23 to -5 percent in 7 months. Other special elections are showing similar gains.

If they're making big gains in red dominant districts, what do you theorize will happen in purple districts? I'm trying to follow the logic here
 
And btw, let's not pretend that changing up DNC leadership will prevent the GOP from the demonization of the DNC's leadership.

Whoever eventually replaces pelosi will be libeled and smeared by hannity and am radio too. Jesus Christ would be blamed for raising the dead and healing the sick on Fox News if he had a D by his name. Am radio would bitch that he turned water into whine instead of beer. What a wussy snowflake hippie!
 
They have made 0 gains that matter. 0. They are 0-5, moral victories are worth zip.

Will they outperform in purple areas? Maybe. We will see

But they just struck out. Again.

Also lol at your comments about being smeared. Welcome to politics. Both sides do it endlessly. Pathetically
 
It'll be easy for Dems to come across as idealess obstructionists if they are forced to spend all their time trying to put out the myriad fires started by the Trump administration.

Sent from my SM-T377V using JazzFanz mobile app
 
The Thriller said:
Dutch brought up an interesting point. Demos are 0-5 in special elections this year. Two thoughts:

#1 All of these districts were deep deep red districts. In fact, Price won the Georgia 6th in November by 20+ pts. Just 7 months later, Handel won it by 5? This has been true in all the other district races too. So clearly, Trump's unpopularity is taking its toll on these races. This leads one to theorize that in purple districts where the races are historically more competitive that Republicans will take it on the chin.

#2 0-5 for Demos does give Republicans a more reassuring feel that they might be able to prevent Demos from retaking the House in 2018. What these special elections have proven is that gerrymandering is a real problem. Despite the races becoming closer, being 5-0 means despite a 35 percent Republican president's approval rating leads to the question that "maybe policy and person just doesn't matter anymore?" Perhaps all that matters is your party's identity? Districts are appearing to become less competitive and despite some voters switching sides, there's already a strong enough Republican base that it really doesn't matter what happens, they'll always show up and vote Republican.

Karl Rove saw this in 2004. Traditionally candidates would start out extreme to gain the base of each party's support then pivot the opposite way in the generals to appeal to moderates. In 2004, Karl Rove predicted that Americans had become so polarized and so identified one way or another, that George W Bush didn't need to pivot left to attract moderates in the general. Instead, he kept pandering to high far right base.

Now what this means today? Less moderation and a continuing slippery slope to extremes.

For those of you looking to read up more on this:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/georgia-6-is-all-about-the-voters-who-reluctantly-backed-trump/
Click to expand...


also note they break every record on spending every new record!

they outspend the republicans. the ossof election was most expensive special election ever for the democrats
 
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