Looking back at the Jazz's draft performance during the past 7 years, there have been quite a few disappointments. This happens with every team, mind you, but the best way (or only way) to acquire high-quality talent to systematically rebuild is through the draft. Historically, the Jazz have always acquired their best players and most competitive rosters by building a foundation through the draft, and then adding one or two pieces through trade or free agency.
The goal in any rebuild is to draft 3 or 4 high-quality starters that fit well together within a 3 - 5 year timespan, so that the team can develop and peak together. The combination of inadequate draft performance and letting Gordon Hayward sign a 3+1 deal with a player option on the 4th year has left the Jazz rebuild stunted and in need of a reset.
The Jazz now have Ricky Rubio (2009 draft), Rudy Gobert (2013), Dante Exum (2014) and Donovan Mitchell (2017). This nucleus can work potentially, depending on how fast Exum and Mitchell develop. If need be, Rubio can be replaced by another PG in a year or two if it seems his prime is beyond the Jazz's ideal time window. However, the Jazz are now in need of an elite scoring wing or combo-forward. The best way to acquire such a player is normally through the draft process.
Here's the history written out, if you care to read it all...
When the Jazz traded out Deron Williams at the deadline during the 2010/11 season, this started the most recent rebuild cycle. The Jazz got back enough assets in that trade to give the rebuild a jumpstart. Assets included: Derrick Favors, a Nets 2011 1st-round pick, a Golden State Warriors 1st-round pick (top-7 protected) and point guard Devin Harris. The Jazz, as a lottery team in their own right, also had their own picks to leverage.
Between 2010 and 2015, the Jazz had three top-5 picks in Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter and Dante Exum. As of today, none of those picks has yet translated into a star, or even a reliable starter. (Derrick Favors has one more year on his contract and may prove this statement wrong, as could Dante Exum as he continues to develop.)
They drafted Gordon Hayward in 2010 using a 1st-round pick from the NY Knicks. Originally, Hayward was seen as a complementary player and unique set-up guy who plays next to one or two primary scorers. When these scorers failed to materialize on the Jazz's roster, Hayward evolved to become a primary option on offense. Hayward ultimately became the Jazz's biggest draft success aside from Rudy Gobert (drafted in 2013), but the Jazz were unable to keep him.
The Jazz also had two more lottery picks (both #12), acquiring Alec Burks and Trey Lyles. Again, neither became a long-term starting caliber player for the Jazz.
Add it all up and 7 years later the Jazz yielded only one or two starting caliber players out of 7 lottery picks. This is why the current rebuild will fail to create a contending team and why the Jazz now need to think in terms of doing a partial reset. They now need to find a way to draft one or two more star players during the next year or two so that they can develop before Rudy Gobert passes his prime. If Donovan Mitchell breaks out a few years from now, then he along with Rudy Gobert may only need one more star to play with, but the Jazz need to find and acquire that star player in no more than a year from now, so that he has 3 years to develop and fit into the Rudy Gobert time-window.
Here's how the last cycle played out (more detail). Why I'm obsessive enough to write this out, I don't know:
** Derrick Favors was a 19 year-old rookie and #3 pick in the 2010 draft. He came to Utah young and took a few years to develop, playing back-up minutes behind Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap during his first two seasons. In 2013/14 (the Jazz's official tank season), Favors became the starting PF next to Enes Kanter, averaging 13/9 as a 4th-year player. In retrospect, his best season was 2014/15 (his 5th year in the league), when he averaged 16/9 with 1.7 blocks per game. He has since struggled with injuries and seen his production plateau or decline during his 6th and 7th seasons.
In 2010/11, the Jazz were 39-43 under Ty Corbin.
** The Jazz used their 2011 Nets lottery pick to select Enes Kanter at #3 overall. Enes played limited minutes behind Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap during his first two seasons, the first season being shortened by a lockout. By his third season, Enes Kanter was starting to emerge as a steady offensive player and a defensive liability. He averaged 12 pts. and 7.5 rebs. in his third year, but asked to be traded when Rudy Gobert started eating into his playing time. The Jazz moved him to OKC for Tibor Pleiss and a future pick.
** The Jazz also drafted Alec Burks with their own first-round pick in 2011, the 12th pick overall. Burks showed flashes of unique scoring ability and started to show more consistency during the 2014/15 season as the Jazz's starting 2-guard. This was his fourth year in the league. He was then injured by Paul Pierce in a game vs. the LA Clippers that season, and he's never been the same since. He's played just 30 - 40 games per season in limited minutes off the bench, while Rodney Hood has taken over the starting SG role.
In 2011/12, the Jazz were 36 - 30 and lost to in the first round of the playoffs to the Spurs.
** In 2012, the Jazz didn't have a first-round pick. Golden State kamikaze'd their season when both Bogut and Curry got injured. Golden State tanked just enough to hold on to their top-7 protected lottery pick, which they used to select Harrison Barnes. The Jazz were unable to get into the first round of the draft and ended up drafting Kevin Murphy in the 2nd round.
In 2012/13, the Jazz were 43 - 39 and just missed the playoffs.
** In 2013, the Jazz parlayed their #14 lottery pick and #21 GSW pick to trade up to #9 and draft Trey Burke. Trey was thrust into the starting PG role his rookie year and showed some positive signs. He made the All Rookie first team and was second in ROY voting. In fairness, expectations for the Jazz were low during the 2013/14 season, as the Jazz basically tanked their way to 25 wins. The Jazz had let both Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap go in favor of committing to their young talent.
The Jazz traded with Denver to draft Rudy Gobert with the #27 pick in 2013. Rudy didn't play much at all during his rookie season under Ty Corbin, but started to show signs during his second season under Quin Snyder. By his third season Rudy emerged as the Jazz's starting center, anchoring one of the league's best defenses.
In 2013/14, the Jazz were 25 - 57, tied with Boston for the 4th worst record in the league. Only the Bucks, 76'ers and Magic were worse.
** In 2014, the Jazz parlayed their hard-earned #5 lottery pick to draft Dante Exum, as a young and underdeveloped 19 year-old. Even as a rookie, Dante eventually won over the starting PG job from Trey Burke. He showed a few flashes of potential, but showed he wasn't ready to run a winning team. He then tore his ACL, missed his sophomore season, and spent the majority of his 3rd year to regain his strength and athleticism. Entering his fourth year in the league, Dante is essentially a second-year or early third-year player in terms of development.
In 2014/15, the Jazz were 38 - 44 and the 11th team in the WC.
** In 2015, the Jazz drafted Trey Lyles as a seemingly versatile PF. I'm not going to go on about it. Lets just say it didn't work out. The good news is that Denver liked Trey enough to give us Donovan Mitchell two drafts later, so there's that.
In 2014/15, the Jazz were 40 - 42 and missed the playoffs by 1 game behind Houston.
** In 2016, the Jazz traded their #12 pick to Atlanta and brought back George Hill. Seen as a short-term, win-now move, Hill helped the Jazz play at a level they hadn't achieved before, while Dante Exum was finishing his rehab.
In 2015/16, the Jazz were 51 - 31 and won a first-round playoff series. However, it wasn't enough to convince Hayward to re-sign.
The combination of inadequate draft performance and letting Gordon Hayward sign a 3+1 deal, has left the Jazz rebuild stunted and in need of a quick reset. If the Jazz want to contend in three years, competing with the T'wolves, Nuggets, Sixers, Bucks and Suns, they'll need to acquire a stud scoring wing or combo forward to team with Mitchell and Gobert.
The goal in any rebuild is to draft 3 or 4 high-quality starters that fit well together within a 3 - 5 year timespan, so that the team can develop and peak together. The combination of inadequate draft performance and letting Gordon Hayward sign a 3+1 deal with a player option on the 4th year has left the Jazz rebuild stunted and in need of a reset.
The Jazz now have Ricky Rubio (2009 draft), Rudy Gobert (2013), Dante Exum (2014) and Donovan Mitchell (2017). This nucleus can work potentially, depending on how fast Exum and Mitchell develop. If need be, Rubio can be replaced by another PG in a year or two if it seems his prime is beyond the Jazz's ideal time window. However, the Jazz are now in need of an elite scoring wing or combo-forward. The best way to acquire such a player is normally through the draft process.
Here's the history written out, if you care to read it all...
When the Jazz traded out Deron Williams at the deadline during the 2010/11 season, this started the most recent rebuild cycle. The Jazz got back enough assets in that trade to give the rebuild a jumpstart. Assets included: Derrick Favors, a Nets 2011 1st-round pick, a Golden State Warriors 1st-round pick (top-7 protected) and point guard Devin Harris. The Jazz, as a lottery team in their own right, also had their own picks to leverage.
Between 2010 and 2015, the Jazz had three top-5 picks in Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter and Dante Exum. As of today, none of those picks has yet translated into a star, or even a reliable starter. (Derrick Favors has one more year on his contract and may prove this statement wrong, as could Dante Exum as he continues to develop.)
They drafted Gordon Hayward in 2010 using a 1st-round pick from the NY Knicks. Originally, Hayward was seen as a complementary player and unique set-up guy who plays next to one or two primary scorers. When these scorers failed to materialize on the Jazz's roster, Hayward evolved to become a primary option on offense. Hayward ultimately became the Jazz's biggest draft success aside from Rudy Gobert (drafted in 2013), but the Jazz were unable to keep him.
The Jazz also had two more lottery picks (both #12), acquiring Alec Burks and Trey Lyles. Again, neither became a long-term starting caliber player for the Jazz.
Add it all up and 7 years later the Jazz yielded only one or two starting caliber players out of 7 lottery picks. This is why the current rebuild will fail to create a contending team and why the Jazz now need to think in terms of doing a partial reset. They now need to find a way to draft one or two more star players during the next year or two so that they can develop before Rudy Gobert passes his prime. If Donovan Mitchell breaks out a few years from now, then he along with Rudy Gobert may only need one more star to play with, but the Jazz need to find and acquire that star player in no more than a year from now, so that he has 3 years to develop and fit into the Rudy Gobert time-window.
Here's how the last cycle played out (more detail). Why I'm obsessive enough to write this out, I don't know:
** Derrick Favors was a 19 year-old rookie and #3 pick in the 2010 draft. He came to Utah young and took a few years to develop, playing back-up minutes behind Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap during his first two seasons. In 2013/14 (the Jazz's official tank season), Favors became the starting PF next to Enes Kanter, averaging 13/9 as a 4th-year player. In retrospect, his best season was 2014/15 (his 5th year in the league), when he averaged 16/9 with 1.7 blocks per game. He has since struggled with injuries and seen his production plateau or decline during his 6th and 7th seasons.
In 2010/11, the Jazz were 39-43 under Ty Corbin.
** The Jazz used their 2011 Nets lottery pick to select Enes Kanter at #3 overall. Enes played limited minutes behind Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap during his first two seasons, the first season being shortened by a lockout. By his third season, Enes Kanter was starting to emerge as a steady offensive player and a defensive liability. He averaged 12 pts. and 7.5 rebs. in his third year, but asked to be traded when Rudy Gobert started eating into his playing time. The Jazz moved him to OKC for Tibor Pleiss and a future pick.
** The Jazz also drafted Alec Burks with their own first-round pick in 2011, the 12th pick overall. Burks showed flashes of unique scoring ability and started to show more consistency during the 2014/15 season as the Jazz's starting 2-guard. This was his fourth year in the league. He was then injured by Paul Pierce in a game vs. the LA Clippers that season, and he's never been the same since. He's played just 30 - 40 games per season in limited minutes off the bench, while Rodney Hood has taken over the starting SG role.
In 2011/12, the Jazz were 36 - 30 and lost to in the first round of the playoffs to the Spurs.
** In 2012, the Jazz didn't have a first-round pick. Golden State kamikaze'd their season when both Bogut and Curry got injured. Golden State tanked just enough to hold on to their top-7 protected lottery pick, which they used to select Harrison Barnes. The Jazz were unable to get into the first round of the draft and ended up drafting Kevin Murphy in the 2nd round.
In 2012/13, the Jazz were 43 - 39 and just missed the playoffs.
** In 2013, the Jazz parlayed their #14 lottery pick and #21 GSW pick to trade up to #9 and draft Trey Burke. Trey was thrust into the starting PG role his rookie year and showed some positive signs. He made the All Rookie first team and was second in ROY voting. In fairness, expectations for the Jazz were low during the 2013/14 season, as the Jazz basically tanked their way to 25 wins. The Jazz had let both Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap go in favor of committing to their young talent.
The Jazz traded with Denver to draft Rudy Gobert with the #27 pick in 2013. Rudy didn't play much at all during his rookie season under Ty Corbin, but started to show signs during his second season under Quin Snyder. By his third season Rudy emerged as the Jazz's starting center, anchoring one of the league's best defenses.
In 2013/14, the Jazz were 25 - 57, tied with Boston for the 4th worst record in the league. Only the Bucks, 76'ers and Magic were worse.
** In 2014, the Jazz parlayed their hard-earned #5 lottery pick to draft Dante Exum, as a young and underdeveloped 19 year-old. Even as a rookie, Dante eventually won over the starting PG job from Trey Burke. He showed a few flashes of potential, but showed he wasn't ready to run a winning team. He then tore his ACL, missed his sophomore season, and spent the majority of his 3rd year to regain his strength and athleticism. Entering his fourth year in the league, Dante is essentially a second-year or early third-year player in terms of development.
In 2014/15, the Jazz were 38 - 44 and the 11th team in the WC.
** In 2015, the Jazz drafted Trey Lyles as a seemingly versatile PF. I'm not going to go on about it. Lets just say it didn't work out. The good news is that Denver liked Trey enough to give us Donovan Mitchell two drafts later, so there's that.
In 2014/15, the Jazz were 40 - 42 and missed the playoffs by 1 game behind Houston.
** In 2016, the Jazz traded their #12 pick to Atlanta and brought back George Hill. Seen as a short-term, win-now move, Hill helped the Jazz play at a level they hadn't achieved before, while Dante Exum was finishing his rehab.
In 2015/16, the Jazz were 51 - 31 and won a first-round playoff series. However, it wasn't enough to convince Hayward to re-sign.
The combination of inadequate draft performance and letting Gordon Hayward sign a 3+1 deal, has left the Jazz rebuild stunted and in need of a quick reset. If the Jazz want to contend in three years, competing with the T'wolves, Nuggets, Sixers, Bucks and Suns, they'll need to acquire a stud scoring wing or combo forward to team with Mitchell and Gobert.
