Dante Exum: shoulder injury

[MVP]

Not sure any of these are good comps
Unlike Kanter, Dante has a good attitude and is committed to playing defense. I think the summer league and first two preseason games showed Dante was improving offensively. He was more of a project than Burke. And he had the injury which set him back further.
DWill was likely leaving as an UFA (or at least KOC and the Millers thought). That's why he was traded.

But Kanter at least showed he could score and rebound at high level. Burke was disappointment who could never overcome his ego to play the way team needed him too. DWill was not leaving anywhere, after Sloan quit he though it is his team and he would have stayed for sure, he felt really betrayed when Jazz traded him. We have more examples of young players let go after their rookie contracts are over ( Brewer, Humphries, Snyder,etc) - Jazz as organization is known to part ways easy with their lottery picks.
Exum so far shown that he has quick first step and length - otherwise he is huge unknown with serious holes in his game and in his 4th year still remains mystery to most scouts and specialists. Realistically if Rubio is playing well and Jazz make it to second round or more this year I do not see them investing into Exum more than average level backup PG is worth in free agent market - 5-6 mil a year.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I don't know if they extend him or not, but if they don't, they'll either match an offer sheet or come to terms in the offseason. Allowing him to take the QO is basically giving up on him at this point. Not seeing it.

I'm also not buying a 2 time serious injury sufferer gambling on staying healthy with 35-40 million in front of him.

What if we offer $35M and he doesn't see that as good. Him accepting the QO (which we will extend to make sure he is restricted) might be his only option if he doesn't want to lock in.

Nerlens Noel turned down $80M this year (or close to it) and has made less money and had serious injuries. These guys have irrational confidence... Noel got the QO.

I could see a similar stalemate happening... I could also see him being smarter than that and going for something in the range of 30-40M. I don't know that the Jazz will offer that.

I can't imagine this would play well in the media, but I wonder if we did a 4/30 right now if he'd take it. Would save us some cap room because I think his caphold is like $10M.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

But Kanter at least showed he could score and rebound at high level. Burke was disappointment who could never overcome his ego to play the way team needed him too. DWill was not leaving anywhere, after Sloan quit he though it is his team and he would have stayed for sure, he felt really betrayed when Jazz traded him. We have more examples of young players let go after their rookie contracts are over ( Brewer, Humphries, Snyder,etc) - Jazz as organization is known to part ways easy with their lottery picks.
Exum so far shown that he has quick first step and length - otherwise he is huge unknown with serious holes in his game and in his 4th year still remains mystery to most scouts and specialists. Realistically if Rubio is playing well and Jazz make it to second round or more this year I do not see them investing into Exum more than average level backup PG is worth in free agent market - 5-6 mil a year.

The other thing to consider is that those drafts weren't great around where we were picking (except for the Burke draft which had CJ and Greek Freak). The guys selected around Dante and Kanter are all pretty meh. Of course there are guys much later that are better, but realistically most NBA GMs have these guys pegged in a similar range.

I like Saric in the Exum draft, but would have booed the TV relentlessly had we picked him there with Exum available. You need a lot of luck in building teams... some luck you can make... some of it is dumb luck.

 

[fgcamel]

If Embiid's contract is anything to go by, injuries don't mean ****.

 

[MVP]

If Embiid's contract is anything to go by, injuries don't mean ****.

Did you just compare Embid to Exum?

 

[MVP]

I like Saric in the Exum draft, but would have booed the TV relentlessly had we picked him there with Exum available. You need a lot of luck in building teams... some luck you can make... some of it is dumb luck.

I booed TV when Exum was picked. Even when I had a dream that Jazz will pick him way before the draft.. could have bet on it and made nice money lol.

 

[fgcamel]

Did you just compare Embid to Exum?

In terms of skill? Of course not.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

No. His QO is just over 4 million. With his injury he has no chance of qualifying for the starter criteria, which means that his QO is the same as the 15th pick.

I just went off of what was listed... I think the Jazz would let him save some face and maybe give him a 2 year deal at like 13-14 with second year a PO... worst case for Exum.

 

[MVP]

In terms of skill? Of course not.

Ok, cool. People trying to look back into Steph Curry situation and saying that Jazz may get a star with cheap contract aka GSW got with Curry ignore the fact that Curry was oozing talent before his ankle injury at the level Exum never came close so far. Same with Embiid. Dude was a lock to be a star. So not sure we can say that injuries do not matter - Exum is much lower level talent and ceiling compared to Curry or Embiid.
Trying to think about similar player who got good contract despite injury after just couple mediocre years? W.Matthews was mentioned but he was solid and proven player already.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

That embiid contract is crazy. I don't see anyone saying there are team options there. That is franchise crippling if his injuries continue.

 

[MDAV28]

I booed TV when Exum was picked. Even when I had a dream that Jazz will pick him way before the draft.. could have bet on it and made nice money lol.

That's called confirmation bias my friend.

 

[fgcamel]

Ok, cool. People trying to look back into Steph Curry situation and saying that Jazz may get a star with cheap contract aka GSW got with Curry ignore the fact that Curry was oozing talent before his ankle injury at the level Exum never came close so far. Same with Embiid. Dude was a lock to be a star. So not sure we can say that injuries do not matter - Exum is much lower level talent and ceiling compared to Curry or Embiid.
Trying to think about similar player who got good contract despite injury after just couple mediocre years? W.Matthews was mentioned but he was solid and proven player already.

I also think comparing curry to Embiid is silly as well.

Curry had one season which was pretty similar to Embiid last year in terms of time on the court, but that was also backed up by two fully healthy seasons.

Embiid has played 31 games, in 3 seasons, at 24 minutes a game. Due to issues that have completely derailed guys his size in the past.

Yes, he is incredibly talented, but that is a huge risk.