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Nikola Mirotic

Handlogten's Heros said:
There is a narrative that he was being misused both as a rookie and last year was tough with the ball dominant guys they had. There is some hope he is much more than a Troy Murphy or Illyasova for sure.

I just think if we wait them out a bit he either cools off or keeps helping them win so much that they have to move him to save their tank.
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I think what's more relevant in a comparison is to look at what our current need is -- we need spacing very badly. If we assume Mirotic gives us his career average as a (very generous) worst-case scenario, then he's giving you 7.6 3PA/36 at 36.1%, while Ersan gives you 4.5 3PA/36 at 36.8% -- I think there's a huge difference in possible spacing with that when you've got a guy able to put up 40% more threes at the same percentage.

And if we want to be generous on the other end by looking at his recent small sample then Niko is giving you twice as many threes per minute as Ersan while shooting 10% better. Obviously that's not a fair comparison and skews too far to one side, but so does the other comparison above where Niko still comes out much further ahead.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
But even if a rookie doesn't look great in year 1 they can still have a lot of trade value. I just think we are sitting in pole position with not a lot of incentive to act fast... so we will give them something, but not a first.
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Well im looking at an amazing ceiling with mirotic (dirk) and our pick may have a similar ceiling.
Im looking a floor of illyasova with mirotic which still has trade value and im looking at a floor of jan vessley, trey burke, michael bennet, kwame brown, jimmer freddette, and many other busts as a floor for the pick. Did those guys have any trade value after the time their own teams realized they were busts?
 
Ellis269 said:
So, the biggest concern with both is giving them a new contract that they fail to live up to.
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The biggest concern with the pick is that they dont even earn a new contract. Jimmer, vessley, tsitisvilli (?lol)
 
infection said:
I think what's more relevant in a comparison is to look at what our current need is -- we need spacing very badly. If we assume Mirotic gives us his career average as a (very generous) worst-case scenario, then he's giving you 7.6 3PA/36 at 36.1%, while Ersan gives you 4.5 3PA/36 at 36.8% -- I think there's a huge difference in possible spacing with that when you've got a guy able to put up 40% more threes at the same percentage.

And if we want to be generous on the other end by looking at his recent small sample then Niko is giving you twice as many threes per minute as Ersan while shooting 10% better. Obviously that's not a fair comparison and skews too far to one side, but so does the other comparison above where Niko still comes out much further ahead.
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Ersan was around in the caveman days... last few years are 5-6.8 per 36. I get it though Niko gets more volume and he has a dribble drive game too... Ersan draws a ton of charges so both players are different and have pluses and minuses.

I just think there is a chance he is in that tier or player and almost no chance he is in the Dirk Love tier of player.
 
fishonjazz said:
Well im looking at an amazing ceiling with mirotic (dirk) and our pick may have a similar ceiling.
Im looking a floor of illyasova with mirotic which still has trade value and im looking at a floor of jan vessley, trey burke, michael bennet, kwame brown, jimmer freddette, and many other busts as a floor for the pick. Did those guys have any trade value after the time their own teams realized they were busts?
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I hear ya, but if Dirk is Mirotic's ceiling then the pick has a ceiling of Giannis, DM, Kwahi, Gobert etc. The chance you hit big is less, but if you do you have them on a cost controlled deal and they are under team control for 7 years minimum. Niko we have under control for 1.5 years... and this year we aren't making the playoffs (or at least it is not a major concern).

He isn't worth our pick.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Ersan was around in the caveman days... last few years are 5-6.8 per 36. I get it though Niko gets more volume and he has a dribble drive game too... Ersan draws a ton of charges so both players are different and have pluses and minuses.

I just think there is a chance he is in that tier or player and almost no chance he is in the Dirk Love tier of player.
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I don't think he's in a Dirk or Love tier, but I think he's in an elite tier at doing exactly what we need a 4 to do -- space the hell out of the floor. Anything else is gravy, and I have the feeling we'll be getting a good side of gravy.

Overall Jahlil Okafor is a better talent than Niko but he's not what we need. Can we get what we need in the draft? At this point we have some pretty specific needs by having two real franchise guys in Mitchell and Gobert and it's not really a "hey just take whatever best talent you can get and make the pieces fit later."

Now if we're trading Gobert then that's another story, but I ain't on that bus.
 
infection said:
The tank is a mirage. We'll have a streak somewhere in February and March where we'll look unstoppable and people will be talking about championship (I'm kidding but only kind of -- any time we put together wins people go crazy). That's going to do more to hurt the tank than anything. The difference Mirotic makes this year is we position ourselves better in the playoffs.
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Yeah that's why every loss matters.
 
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