Is Anything Going to Happen Tomorrow?

[416Klawzz]

That pick over 4-7 years has a chance at providing as much or more value than Mirotic does over the length of his current contract. It’s no play out will this pick be better than Niko... it’s about what adds the most overall value. If we can get a late first for one of our other guys and get niko great... our pick is off limits unless it is so heavily protected that it is a “fake first” and is really a second rounder.

The jazz won’t tank but they should. We aren’t getting to the playoffs. If you aren’t in the playoffs then what is the point of winning a few extra games.

We would benefit more by getting Bradley and Royce some more PT and letting DM spend more time as primary creator. Get them ready for next year and help them become rotation pieces for the future.

The basketball gods have been trying to tell us to tank yet we insist on punching the wall.

Pride, that's what the jazz play for and what the organization stands for...

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Next years pick hasn't been discussed much, never thought of it being that. It would probably be around 20. Slap top 10 protection on it (if Gobert goes down) and it would be close.

The Jazz could suck again next year. Let's say we do get Mirotic, the Jazz will still need internal improvement from guys like Rubio/Exum/Hood/O'Neale. Rubio and/or Exum really being the key there. The West could also get a lot stronger if the Lakers get Lebron/PG and becomes a powerhouse again.

 

[LoPo]

Havent we learned from the Hill and Rubio trades? Don't trade a pick

Sent from my VS995 using JazzFanz mobile app

 

[yamers]

whens his deadline on the contract?

what time

 

[SCS]

I don't think a Mirotic trade is likely to happen tomorrow. However, I do think a Mirotic trade will happen soon-ish. Well before the trade deadline comes. Quite possibly before January is over. It's crystal clear that Mirotic wants out of Chicago. And Chicago probably would like the problem solved sooner rather than later.

Check out this video of a Bulls fan attending the Bulls 107-105 win vs the Pistons last night. Skip to 9:03 for the end of the game. Is that Mirotic walking into the tunnel no f***s given after a win while his team celebrates LOL? It happens around 9:27.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

It's been 20 minutes and nothing has happened.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I don't think a Mirotic trade is likely to happen tomorrow. However, I do think a Mirotic trade will happen soon-ish. Well before the trade deadline comes. Quite possibly before January is over. It's crystal clear that Mirotic wants out of Chicago. And Chicago probably would like the problem solved sooner rather than later.

Check out this video of a Bulls fan attending the Bulls 107-105 win vs the Pistons last night. Skip to 9:03 for the end of the game. Is that Mirotic walking into the tunnel no f***s given after a win while his team celebrates LOL? It happens around 9:27.

You are really dedicated to this Bulls stuff if you watched a random dude's 10 minute vlog about going to a Bulls game.

 

[Jazz4ever]

The Jazz could suck again next year. Let's say we do get Mirotic, the Jazz will still need internal improvement from guys like Rubio/Exum/Hood/O'Neale. Rubio and/or Exum really being the key there. The West could also get a lot stronger if the Lakers get Lebron/PG and becomes a powerhouse again.

Don't forget DM's internal improvement. If he's as good as we think he'll be, could jump from 18 to 22 ppg on better efficiency and getting to the line more.

 

[infection]

I went back through a sampling of a decade of first round picks. I started with 2004 because that was the first year there were 30 first round picks, so it made it easier for rounding purposes. I figured ending at 2013 is appropriate because they’re now in their 5th year so we have a relatively decent idea of career trajectories. I stopped at anything before the tenth pick (including the 10th pick was generous), and my argument isn’t even giving up a pick in the 10-15 range but I felt including it is helpful for context. I went through and identified the people I thought were impact players. Some of these are awfully generous (Spencer Hawes, Thabo [he’s had a solid career and love him but if he hadn’t played here nobody would mention him], DeMarre [same thing], Burks [for teh lolz], Taj Gibson, Patrick Patterson, etc.). Certainly there may be people that guys like or favor (feel free to peruse the lists yourselves), but I think I threw in enough other guys who really shouldn’t have been on the list to account for any of that.


I’ve put an asterisk next to anyone who has been an all-star, made any of the three all-NBA teams, or made a defensive team.


2004

15 Al Jefferson *
18 JR Smith
20 Jameer Nelson *
25 Tony Allen *
26 Kevin Martin


2005

10 Bynum *
17 Danny Granger *
30 David Lee *


2006

11 Reddick
13 Thabo
21 Rondo


2007

10 Spencer Hawes
15 Rodney Stuckey
16 Nick Young
22 Jared Dudley
23 Wilson Chandler
26 Aaron Brooks
27 Arron Afflalo


2008

10 Brook Lopez
17 Roy Hibbert
21 Ryan Anderson
24 Serge Ibaka *
25 Nic Batum
26 George Hill


2009

10 Brandon Jennings
17 Jrue Holiday *
18 Ty Lawson
19 Jeff Teague *
26 Taj Gibson
27 DeMarre Carrol


2010

10 Paul George *
14 Patrick Patterson
18 Eric Bledsoe
19 Avery Bradley *


2011

11 Klay *
12 Burks
15 Kawhi *
16 Vucevic
22 Faried
23 Mirotic [ironic]
24 Reggie Jackson
30 Jimmy Butler *


2012

10 Austin Rivers
20 Evan Fournier


2013

10 CJ McColum
15 Giannis *
17 Schröder
27 Gobert *


If you break down these numbers of “impact players” by draft position then you’ve got:


10-30: 48/200 = 24%

15-30: 36/150 = 24%

20-30: 21/100 = 21%


If we break down the number off all-stars/all-NBA/all defense guys, then these are the numbers:


10-30: 16/200 = 8%

15-30: 13/150 = 8.67%

20-30: 6/100 = 6%


Obviously drafting isn’t completely just chance as there’s certainly a variable of skill involved in evaluation and everyone is fairly confident with the FO (as am I), but even with the franchise scouting variable, a large part of the equation still goes way beyond the franchise’s ability to forecast.


I think when people conceptualize trading our pick, the hesitation is the possibility of missing out on the all-star (and other) quality guys. I wouldn’t give up a pick less than 20 (well, let’s be real, I’d give up any pick beyond 14), but I think a 20-30 pick gets it done. Historically, landing an all-star in that range from this sample is 6%, and of those six guys you’re including Jameer, Tony Allen, David Lee, Ibaka, Butler, and Gobert.


The chance of us landing a Mitchell or Gobert in the 20s is possible, and generalizing the last year to all drafts would provide evidence for that, but larger samples don’t really support that being more than a large outlier.


I give up a 20-30 pick without thinking twice. I give up a 15-20 pick after thinking twice. I do it for a pick this summer or next.

I kind of feel like we bought a powerball ticket and someone’s offering us $2k before the number reveal and everyone thinks “OMG we’re giving up the chance to win the powerball!”

 

[SCS]

You are really dedicated to this Bulls stuff if you watched a random dude's 10 minute vlog about going to a Bulls game.

Not at all. I hate the Bulls. I have hated them since the 90's. It's not a random dude's vlog, it's someone I'm subscribed too for his NBA related videos.

 

[yamers]

Don't forget DM's internal improvement. If he's as good as we think he'll be, could jump from 18 to 22 ppg on better efficiency and getting to the line more.

he's already jumped from 9 to 18 and now hes at 23.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Pride, that's what the jazz play for and what the organization stands for...

Sweet. Other teams play for championships... teams that tanked to help start their runs... like San Antonio and Golden State... but yeah they don’t play for pride obvi.