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2018 Draft Trade Idea

LoPo

LoPo

Well-Known Member
Good Morning Jazz fans; the off-season has officially begun. Now that we are lucky enough to have Mitchell mania, every off-season is even more important to get quality to build. After much sifting, I think I found the type of trade DL would pursue. He has targeted a proven vet over draft picks numerous times in recent years. This trade can lead to other initiatives. Please bear with the long post, but if you can, you will see the logic:

Step 1 - Burks, #21, and #52 for Jonathon Simmons and #35 http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=yblf6tbm (this trade saves us $5.5 plus the rookie salary for next season). Orlando's new FO wants to rebuild, and #21 is more important than Simmons. We need a vet more than a project. At #35, we draft KBD, Okogie, Carter, best player available.

Step 2 - meet with PG first thing on July 1. If he will consider us, we have to renounce Thabo (7/1 deadline).

Step 3 - Sign Exum to no more than $7 year one. RFA can be signed after 7/1 before the moratorium lifts on 7/6.

Step 4A- if PG is still interested, we renounce Favors, Neto, Jerekbo and Udoh. We also look to trade Bradley (we could try to do this around the draft).

Without Favors' hold, Jerekbo, Udoh, Neto and Bradley, we would have these contracts for 2018/19:
Gobert $23.5
Rubio $15
Ingles $13
Crowder $7.3
Exum $7
Simmons $6
Mitchell $3.1
O'Neale $1.4
TOTAL: $76.3

The most PG can get from a team (not OKC) is around $30. The projected 2018/19 salary cap is around $102. So, we could offer PG around $27. If the cap spikes, like some say might happen, we could give him more.

Step 4B - If PG isn't interested (most likely scenario), we keep Udoh, Jerekbo and Bradley. We even look to re-sign Favors to a two year deal.

The age of our team is crucial because I think the Mitchell experience will come in two waves. The first wave will be succeeding with the guys we have and the 2nd wave will be bringing in guys to continue that success. To me, this plan maximizes the current roster which has some guys already in their prime (with or without PG). In the future, we hope Mitchell can recruit the big fish because of the success provided by wave 1.

Probable Roster
PG Rubio, Exum
SG Mitchell, Simmons
SF Ingles, O'Neale
PF Favors/Crowder, Jerekbo
C Gobert, Bradley, Udoh
#35
This roster is built to throw a number of athletic, switchable defenders at the GS and Houston types. Our depth would be stronger than ever.

And if we could add PG to it at a hair under the max, just wow.




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Knew this was coming after Donovan’s interview and twitter post yesterday.

Easy “no thanks” on that trade.

Jazz could more easily stretch Burks if they need to create more cap space. Better to wait until you’re sure you’ve got PG13 before making a bunch of moves.
 
Ellis269 said:
Knew this was coming after Donovan’s interview and twitter post yesterday.

Easy “no thanks” on that trade.

Jazz could more easily stretch Burks if they need to create more cap space. Better to wait until you’re sure you’ve got PG13 before making a bunch of moves.
Click to expand...

It is a bad idea to clear salary by giving up good stuff in anticipation of a marquee free agent signing... especially when it doesn’t get you enough space to get the max for said free agent... and when the biggest sign that you have that said free agent is interested in coming here is a social media post.

We can dip our toes in FA this year but it is much more likely that we do something bigger next year. I also think there may be real value in a Favs sign and trade and at 21 we might be able to nab our next building block in Okobo... at 35 we are in Grayson Allen territory.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
It is a bad idea to clear salary by giving up good stuff in anticipation of a marquee free agent signing... especially when it doesn’t get you enough space to get the max for said free agent... and when the biggest sign that you have that said free agent is interested in coming here is a social media post.

We can dip our toes in FA this year but it is much more likely that we do something bigger next year. I also think there may be real value in a Favs sign and trade and at 21 we might be able to nab our next building block in Okobo... at 35 we are in Grayson Allen territory.
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Great post. It’s pretty great to have a guy like Mitchell who is popular and eager to recruit stars to come to Utah.

By all means, create a pathway to go get Paul George. Waive Thabo before July 1st. Be ready to renounce Favors, Exum and Neto. Be ready to waive Udoh and Jerebko as well. Be ready to waive and stretch Burks. Sucks to swap 7 guys for one player, but getting another star would be worth it.

Once you have a viable pathway to get him without giving up assets, you create some small leverage to force an opt-in trade like Chris Paul did last year.

Burks and Jerebko (and Udoh if they want him) can get you there salary wise as viable rotation players (plus they all expire next year with Melo creating a ton of cap space in 2019). Add a ******** of future draft picks, and you’ve given the Thunder a better option than losing him for nothing AND you still have Bird rights on Favors and Exum - plus the MLE if you want/need it.

But you don’t go all in on getting PG until you know he’s interested in coming to Utah.
 
Ellis269 said:
Great post. It’s pretty great to have a guy like Mitchell who is popular and eager to recruit stars to come to Utah.

By all means, create a pathway to go get Paul George. Waive Thabo before July 1st. Be ready to renounce Favors, Exum and Neto. Be ready to waive Udoh and Jerebko as well. Be ready to waive and stretch Burks. Sucks to swap 7 guys for one player, but getting another star would be worth it.

Once you have a viable pathway to get him without giving up assets, you create some small leverage to force an opt-in trade like Chris Paul did last year.

Burks and Jerebko (and Udoh if they want him) can get you there salary wise as viable rotation players (plus they all expire next year with Melo creating a ton of cap space in 2019). Add a ******** of future draft picks, and you’ve given the Thunder a better option than losing him for nothing AND you still have Bird rights on Favors and Exum - plus the MLE if you want/need it.

But you don’t go all in on getting PG until you know he’s interested in coming to Utah.
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I live in near Sacramento... I’ve seen the clear space for the free agent trade before... Don’t be Vlade.
 
Why do we give up first round pick to clear space BEFORE we know whether we will need to clear that space? Or do you like this trade on its own? BTW the newest projections for the cap for next season are 101M, so the max you can give PG is not 27 but rather... about 24.5 by your calculations.

Overall I agree with @Handlogten's Heros that the real window for big FA is next year. This year we would probably have to workout some sort of sign and trade if we want a big time FA.
 
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Stretching Burks is simply not going to happen. You really think DL will pay $4 million a year they next 3 years just to dump a guy Mitchell supported in the playoffs? The stretch rules dictate you can take the salary and stretch it the length of the contract x 2 plus 1 year. So the $11.5 would cost us a shade under $4 for 3 years. Not gonna happen.

So, we have to find a team to absorb Burks' contract if we want to clear space around the draft, that's Dallas or Chicago. Doubt we completely dump #21 just to dump Burks. So we have to get creative. We could wait to shed Burks after the moratorium, but our 2019 pick doesn't hold much value and there arent that many teams with space to absorb $11.5.

Burks and #21 to Orlando for Simmons saves us $7.2 for next year ($11.5 + $1.7 - $6). That's pretty huge if we are trying to make cap room. And its not a simple dump either. We get some value back. Simmons fits our team like a glove too.

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LoPo said:
Stretching Burks is simply not going to happen. You really think DL will pay $4 million a year they next 3 years just to dump a guy Mitchell supported in the playoffs? The stretch rules dictate you can take the salary and stretch it the length of the contract x 2 plus 1 year. So the $11.5 would cost us a shade under $4 for 3 years. Not gonna happen.

So, we have to find a team to absorb Burks' contract if we want to clear space around the draft, that's Dallas or Chicago. Doubt we completely dump #21 just to dump Burks. So we have to get creative. We could wait to shed Burks after the moratorium, but our 2019 pick doesn't hold much value and there arent that many teams with space to absorb $11.5.

Burks and #21 to Orlando for Simmons saves us $7.2 for next year ($11.5 + $1.7 - $6). That's pretty huge if we are trying to make cap room. And its not a simple dump either. We get some value back. Simmons fits our team like a glove too.

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Simmons game may fit us, but word on the street is he may not fit the locker room... there was a reason SA let him walk.

Also, you say we won't waive and stretch him like its a fact, but we would do a semi-salary dump? There is little difference there.

We don't need to clear his salary now... get a commitment then use a 2019 first if you have to... clearing space for free agents that aren't coming is some sacramento ****... we are smarter than that.
 
@stitches

I like the trade on its own. If we get PG, great. I dont think its realistic, but this trade does two things-

#1 It sends a message that Utah is out there pursuing top tier free agents.
#2. Simmons is a very good player on a very good contract. He helps us more right now and safer than a pick. Same logic DL used with Hill and Rubio.



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stitches said:
Why do we give up first round pick to clear space BEFORE we know whether we will need to clear that space? Or do you like this trade on its own? BTW the newest projections for the cap for next season are 101M, so the max you can give PG is not 27 but rather... about 24.5 by your calculations.

Overall I agree with @Handlogten's Heros that the real window for big FA is next year. This year we would probably have to workout some sort of sign and trade if we want a big time FA.
Click to expand...

I think we have meetings this summer if possible... I think we need another year of success to show we aren't a flash in the pan. Tis his summer i think we could get something very good with MLE as money dries up. Use smart money around the fringes... retain Exum if the deal is a good value and poke around the big stuff (trades, FA, etc.). We can get there if we need to, but making real moves around a deal like this is short sighted.
 
PG is not the point of the deal. Simmons is the point of the deal. Its a DL type move that actually saves us money. Simmons only makes $5.7 in 2019 and it's a team option.

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I’d much rather see who the Jazz can get at 21 before taking on future salary. Plus, Houston would have screwed themselves sideways in the CP3 negotiations had they done something like this. Burks isn’t a bad option for salary matching purposes if you decide to pursue a sign and trade option.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I think we have meetings this summer if possible... I think we need another year of success to show we aren't a flash in the pan. Tis his summer i think we could get something very good with MLE as money dries up. Use smart money around the fringes... retain Exum if the deal is a good value and poke around the big stuff (trades, FA, etc.). We can get there if we need to, but making real moves around a deal like this is short sighted.
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You think way too much like me ... I've been thinking the same - I think we should try to get meetings this year even if it doesn't ultimately result in getting any of the FAs this year. We should make everything possible to raise the profile of the team. Players take note when they see the big time FAs give their time to franchises in FA. In a way it would be preparation for the real thing next year. Plant the seeds this summer, nurture our reputation and outlook for the future during the season and then strike next summer.
 
LoPo said:
PG is not the point of the deal. Simmons is the point of the deal. Its a DL type move that actually saves us money. Simmons only makes $5.7 in 2019 and it's a team option.
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Simmons is redundant with O’Neale on the roster for a fraction of the cost. Better off keeping Burks and letting him expire or trading him for a guy who fills a more immediate need or keeping Favors/Exum and adding a guy for the MLE. I don’t see the value for this trade.
 
LoPo said:
PG is not the point of the deal. Simmons is the point of the deal. Its a DL type move that actually saves us money. Simmons only makes $5.7 in 2019 and it's a team option.

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Click to expand...

I like him on court, but there is something to the off-court locker room stuff there. Pop didn't want him back and that team desperately needs a guy like him. In a vacuum it's reasonable... but considering how much value we put on character and that we'd absolutly have intel there... I think he's a no-go
 
@Ellis269

The trade doesn't add future money. Simmons has a $5.7 team option for 2019.

And how do we realistically meet with a PG or LeBron if we have no cap space? Like I have laid out, this trade doesn't show our hand but it does get us closer to having the money necessary to even have the meeting.

If we still have Burks on July 1, we don't get a formal meeting with PG. If we somehow do, shedding Burks' $11.5 will be so much harder once everybody knows what we are trying to go after. We lose leverage.

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LoPo said:
PG is not the point of the deal. Simmons is the point of the deal.

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Then it's plain dumb.

Also, you CANNOT retain Exum, have Simmons' salary, and go after George.

If this team can't get its third star via trade or free agency, it is the draft, so you absolutely keep that pick. The only scenario you trade it is for a star. That's the only scenario you trade that pick. We didn't hold out on Chicago to trade it for a journeyman.

And you don't dump assets to clear space if you don't have something like a verbal commitment.
 
LoPo said:
And how do we realistically meet with a PG or LeBron if we have no cap space? Like I have laid out, this trade doesn't show our hand but it does get us closer to having the money necessary to even have the meeting.

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Click to expand...
It's simple: you don't have the meeting.

Trading a 1st rounder for a meeting is a terrible idea and wreaks of desperation.

Perhaps most importantly, by trading for Simmons, you effectively prevent yourself from having the space to sign George.
 
LoPo said:
@Ellis269

The trade doesn't add future money. Simmons has a $5.7 team option for 2019.

And how do we realistically meet with a PG or LeBron if we have no cap space? Like I have laid out, this trade doesn't show our hand but it does get us closer to having the money necessary to even have the meeting.

If we still have Burks on July 1, we don't get a formal meeting with PG. If we somehow do, shedding Burks' $11.5 will be so much harder once everybody knows what we are trying to go after. We lose leverage.

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Click to expand...

Not really... just because other individuals know what we are intending to do it does not cost us much leverage. I'll pay a little premium for the certainty anyway.

Think about it this way... when you list your house for sale it doesn't cost you any leverage. If we say AB is available and we will give a first rounder then a couple teams will likely raise their hand and accept... Atlanta prolly does that deal no problem. Your deal doesn't get us to PG money anyway. You go into the meeting with the ability to get the space fairly easily. If you can't get the meeting with a few small contingencies on getting the cap space... then I doubt you have a real chance at getting him to actually sign.
 
Please read all the posts.

I do this trade because I think Simmons helps us more than a pick. If we want to lure free agents in the future, we need to build a winning culture now.

I don't think we are in the mix for PG with or without this trade. However, the trade makes perfect financial sense. It doesnt hurt 2019 and actually saves $7.2 for this year.

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