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Current Players NBA Draft Quarterfinals: Ron Mexico vs. Silesian

Which team would win in a 7-game series?


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Lebron can guard 5 positions, just not as well as Giannis. Especially the C position. Giannis has the length and size to play center. Lebron has not been playing defense, maybe that will change next year but I doubt it. He is focusing on offense now.

I have more than 2 good defenders. Poeltl is top 10 in defensive box +/- and top 20 in defensive rating, and is a great rim defender. Plus he is going to have a huge jump next year going to SA. On top of that James Johnson is a bad ***. Those two are solid defenders. If I need better bigs to play defense I can bring those guys in. Johnson can play the point forward as well. I also have Bledsoe who is known for his defense at PG. So if I want I can have an elite defense with 5 guys. I also have Oubre who is a really good defender coming off the bench. Oubre can guard 4 positions. He is going to be very good next year. There is no shortage of great defenders on my team.

Your Center is terrible at defense and you have Dirk coming off the bench. He can still shoot but that is about it. Next year is going to be ugly for him in his 21st season. He cant guard anything. You also have Korver coming in that cant guard anyone anymore at 37 years old. They have name recognition that helps in this but they are not good anymore. Oh and we already know how Nurkic does as backup to Jurkic and its not pretty. He might get better next year but he sucked this year and gave very low effort this season for Portland and would give next to nothing if he was benched. Conley really struggles on defense as well. There are plenty of holes on your defense.

So you have 1 big that plays defense and he is playing out of position. Horford is a good defender but far less so at PF and its pretty easy to pull him out of the paint. Not that he is much of a rim defender/shot blocker.

Also Griffin has owned Horford in his head to head matchups. Last year Griffin averaged 20 ppg against Horford and Horford average 8 ppg. Horford has never slowed Griffin down. Griffin has averaged 22 ppg, 9 boards and 5 assists vs him for his career. https://www.basketball-reference.co...lake+Griffin&player_id2=griffbl01&idx=players

There is a huge discrepancy between our benches. I have 5 guys that would make for a solid starting group coming off the bench. Being lead by Ingram who is really good and is going to have a big year next year.

He didn’t play defense in the regular season to save energy in the playoffs. Once the playoffs started he was back to his old self, and playing shutdown defense.


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Until you look at the facts

DRPM:
.....Poeltl = 0.94 (47th among centers). Behind Valanciunas, Cooley, Okafor, Bertans, Koufos and Plumlee
.....Jokic = 1.95 (21rst among centers). Ahead of Mozgov, Pachulia, Howard, Marc Gasol

(remember, this is the stat that shows Rudy as top defender in the league and consistently places the Kanters of the world at the bottom)

The gap from Jokic down to Poeltl is about the same as the gap between Capella and Jokic

If Jokic were a defensive liability, there is no way his DRPM would be this high

If Poltl was a good defender, there is no way his DRPM would be this terrible.

Defensive +/-
.....Poeltl = 1.4
.....Jokic = 2.1

The eye test fans slam Jokic's defense and the crowds repeat the fallacy. Jokic is an average defender.

Other Denver defenders are terrible and Jokic gets blamed. On a lineup with 3 All NBA defenders (Horford, RoCo and LeBron),Jokic will be fine.
By that one stat he is average. By all others and watching him he is terrible. He is the main reason Denver sucks on defense. A large chunk of it is his effort. He pulls the same moves as Kanter and boozer on defense. The clear out a path strategy. He is just one of those players that focuses on one side of the court.
 
He didn’t play defense in the regular season to save energy in the playoffs. Once the playoffs started he was back to his old self, and playing shutdown defense.


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That was the theory everyone had. But he didn't play good defense in the playoffs this year consistently. Also his defensive stats stayed the same or got worse in the playoffs from the regular season. His defensive rating stayed the same, his defensive win shares went down from 3 to 1. He had his worst year on defense in awhile. I suspect that's the reason he wanted defensive guys around him in la. So he can focus on offense and take defense off more often.
 
Until you look at the facts

DRPM:
.....Poeltl = 0.94 (47th among centers). Behind Valanciunas, Cooley, Okafor, Bertans, Koufos and Plumlee
.....Jokic = 1.95 (21rst among centers). Ahead of Mozgov, Pachulia, Howard, Marc Gasol

(remember, this is the stat that shows Rudy as top defender in the league and consistently places the Kanters of the world at the bottom)

The gap from Jokic down to Poeltl is about the same as the gap between Capella and Jokic

If Jokic were a defensive liability, there is no way his DRPM would be this high

If Poltl was a good defender, there is no way his DRPM would be this terrible.

Defensive +/-
.....Poeltl = 1.4
.....Jokic = 2.1

The eye test fans slam Jokic's defense and the crowds repeat the fallacy. Jokic is an average defender.

Other Denver defenders are terrible and Jokic gets blamed. On a lineup with 3 All NBA defenders (Horford, RoCo and LeBron),Jokic will be fine.

Also where did these stats come from? I am looking at basketball reference right now and it shows poeltl as top 10 in Defensive Box Plus/Minus at 2.9 and Jokic behind him at 2.3.
 
Also where did these stats come from? I am looking at basketball reference right now and it shows poeltl as top 10 in Defensive Box Plus/Minus at 2.9 and Jokic behind him at 2.3.

DBPM has Jokic with the 17th highest DBPM in the NBA. Which says he does not suck at defense.

But I kid, because DBPM is a bad stat, with a top 10 of Drummond, Gobert, Anderson, Simmons, Cousins, Murray, P Gasol, Westbrook, Horford and Poeltl. It is not a terrible list but the presence of Westbrook, Gasol and Poeltl illustrate its weaknesses. It is a formula that counts things like defensive rebounds, as opposed to one that actually measures how effective the team defense is when the player is on the floor.

DRPM is much better (the best single defensive metric, in my opinion, none are perfect), with Gobert, Roberson, Covington, Nurkic, Baynes, Udoh, West, Dejounte Murray and Embiid in the top 10. This is on ESPN's stats site.

Box +/- is from 538, with Gobert, Udoh, Nogueira, Mejri, Draymond, Embiid, Nurkic, Anthony Davis & Noel. It's not as good as DRPM but decent as these are all really good defenders


Jokic is above average in each of these defensive measures. He is an okay defender. He does not suck. :)
 
By that one stat he is average. By all others and watching him he is terrible. He is the main reason Denver sucks on defense. A large chunk of it is his effort. He pulls the same moves as Kanter and boozer on defense. The clear out a path strategy. He is just one of those players that focuses on one side of the court.

There are ~80 Centers in the NBA, so average = 40

He is ranked 21rst Center in DRPM
He is ranked 11th Center in Defensive +/-
He is ranked 10th Center in DBPM

We all see his flaws and bad plays on defense and no one thinks he is really top 21. But if he were as terrible as everyone is saying, these stats would put him in league with the Okafors and Kanters of the world.

Folks should open up to the idea that there are other things he is doing on defense that compensate somewhat for his bad plays that we all see.
 
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Advanced stats arent always right and arent bulletproof. He is a bottom 10 defender.

Just like every other stat in the universe. No stat is always right and no stat is bulletproof.

Do you wonder why other terrible defenders are exposed by these stats yet Jokic is an outlier who is consistently above average?

And do you base your conclusion on anything besides eye test?
 
DBPM has Jokic with the 17th highest DBPM in the NBA. Which says he does not suck at defense.

But I kid, because DBPM is a bad stat, with a top 10 of Drummond, Gobert, Anderson, Simmons, Cousins, Murray, P Gasol, Westbrook, Horford and Poeltl. It is not a terrible list but the presence of Westbrook, Gasol and Poeltl illustrate its weaknesses. It is a formula that counts things like defensive rebounds, as opposed to one that actually measures how effective the team defense is when the player is on the floor.

DRPM is much better (the best single defensive metric, in my opinion, none are perfect), with Gobert, Roberson, Covington, Nurkic, Baynes, Udoh, West, Dejounte Murray and Embiid in the top 10. This is on ESPN's stats site.

Box +/- is from 538, with Gobert, Udoh, Nogueira, Mejri, Draymond, Embiid, Nurkic, Anthony Davis & Noel. It's not as good as DRPM but decent as these are all really good defenders


Jokic is above average in each of these defensive measures. He is an okay defender. He does not suck. :)

The presence of Nurkic, Jokic, and David West in the top ten of that stat shows its flawed. Those players are not close to top 10 defenders. Nurkic is the best among them defensively but he really dropped off effort wise the 2nd half of the season and playoffs.

I like the offensive/defensive ratings but they also have their flaws for defense. Jokic has a Defensive Rating of 108 on NBA.com which seems about right. Worse than KAT and pretty far down on the list. His offensive rating is #3 among starting Centers which also feels about right, with KAT being #1. The top of that list is all good NBA defensive centers with Embiid, Gobert, and Horford as the top 3 starters at center.

Jakobs net rating comes in #4 in the NBA behind Embiid, Capela, and Gobert. He is now about to get to learn to play defense for the Spurs under Pops. I think he will have a fantastic year.

Or defensive win shares that has a great list as well. Gobert, RoCo, Kawhi, Roberson, Smart, Mitchell, Embiid, and Simmons are all in the top ten which seems correct. Jokic comes in at 164th in the NBA which also seems about right. Ranked 1 spot ahead of Ryan Anderson.
http://stats.nba.com/players/defense/?sort=DEF_WS&dir=-1

But a lot of the defensive stats for individuals reflect their teams defensive stats. Maybe if Jokic played for a team that played defense he would join in. But as of right now he does not really participate in defense and I dont expect that to change next year, but maybe it will. If Denver wants to win with him it has to change. So I kind of hope it doesnt.

That is the problem with defensive stats in general. They are great for teams and terrible for individuals.
 
Hey, by the way, congrats @Ron Mexico , you pulled away! Now go win the title.
There is still time. Frankly I am kind of surprised. I obviously like my team but I thought more people would vote for you.

Despite the friendly banter about players I like your team. I think you did a good job building around Lebron. I think either of our teams would give GS a run for their money in the playoffs. Which to me is the ultimate test in these things.
 
The presence of Nurkic, Jokic, and David West in the top ten of that stat shows its flawed .

Jokic is not top 10, he is 21.

Nurkic is an excellent defender.

I can't explain West, can only say that when he is on the court the team performs well on defense, after adjusting for other players on the floor. Plus there is noise in any stat.

It does not give anything close to precision. You need to look at long term trends. A player at 20 is very likely to be a more effective defender than a player at 50. There is no conclusive "overall defense" or "overall offense" number. So we use imperfect stats so that we don't all just run around spouting opinions based on eye tests.
 
Ron Mexico should win this going away. He has the best bench player here. A starter with Ingram and the pairing of LeBron and Jokic is awful. They both need ball. Wouldn't work plus Nurk was traded because Jokic and Him didn't get along because of some country rival wars stuff. That team owner should be booted out of these drafts or serve a suspension atleast. Have best player in world and still failed badly.
 
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