green
Well-Known Member
His big argument is that once you get out of the lottery, you don't have the stigma of being in the lottery and that you should get an All-Star with your pick. So you don't reach on players. You are right in that its stupid, but the stats show that picks 10-14 are busts more than 15-20. So, I dunno, maybe there is something to it.
The example might be Jimmer vs Bismack. There is a huge chance Bismack may never be good enough to step on the floor. BUT, his upside is huge. Jimmer will never have the potential Bismack has, but he will play a long time in the NBA because he can be a very solid backup pg and hit a ton of threes ala Eddie House. A lot of GM's will reach on Bismack over Jimmer hoping that Bismack turns out. Odds are he doesn't. Jimmer slides to 15 or 16 and a team picks him to be what he is: a backup pg with good range and Jimmer has a 8 year career hitting threes ala Korver. Can you see how GM's reach?
Back to your point, I don't know if Locke is correct that it is the lottery, or if GM's at 15+ just don't have the opportunity to reach as much on "potential" picks and are forced to take the safer picks.
The example might be Jimmer vs Bismack. There is a huge chance Bismack may never be good enough to step on the floor. BUT, his upside is huge. Jimmer will never have the potential Bismack has, but he will play a long time in the NBA because he can be a very solid backup pg and hit a ton of threes ala Eddie House. A lot of GM's will reach on Bismack over Jimmer hoping that Bismack turns out. Odds are he doesn't. Jimmer slides to 15 or 16 and a team picks him to be what he is: a backup pg with good range and Jimmer has a 8 year career hitting threes ala Korver. Can you see how GM's reach?
Back to your point, I don't know if Locke is correct that it is the lottery, or if GM's at 15+ just don't have the opportunity to reach as much on "potential" picks and are forced to take the safer picks.