Coronavirus

[The Thriller]

In Utah cases have started trending downward. Not back to shutdown levels yet, but going the right direction.

Obviously with strong support for facemasks and people realizing we weren't done with this yet we have been able to reduce the spread.

With vaccine trials going well we might get through this afterall!

Some good signs. But our testing has gone down from about 7-9k to 4-5k per day and test positivity has crept up from about 7-8 percent to 9-10 percent. I’m hearing it’s taking 3+ days for people to get test results in northern Utah. Maybe we took to heart Trump’s demand to slow down the testing?

 

[The Thriller]

So I read recently that cult 45 was promoting a dr who was pimping hydroxy and also claiming that the virus was creating by demon sperm and aliens?

 

[infection]

Some good signs. But our testing has gone down from about 7-9k to 4-5k per day and test positivity has crept up from about 7-8 percent to 9-10 percent. I’m hearing it’s taking 3+ days for people to get test results in northern Utah. Maybe we took to heart Trump’s demand to slow down the testing?

Let’s go to the data:



Sorry for the image. It wouldn't do a screen capture like this on my phone. This is from https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/ . As you can see, there's a lag in reporting, which is why they shade the last three days and asterisk them as being incomplete. These are the ones you're referencing as 4-5k per day. So your comparison of 7-9k tests per day comes from the days directly preceding when one enters the lag period. And, since positives are likely reported first, as you can see that the negatives are what is lagging, then yes, it looks like the positivity percentage is up when you look at the days that are specifically qualified as being incomplete.

But, to the larger issue of the idea of the US slowing down testing, this graph is helpful:

Also, the US has preformed more tests in July alone than any other country has during the entire pandemic.

 

[The Thriller]

Let’s go to the data:

View attachment 9599

Sorry for the image. It wouldn't do a screen capture like this on my phone. This is from https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/ . As you can see, there's a lag in reporting, which is why they shade the last three days and asterisk them as being incomplete. These are the ones you're referencing as 4-5k per day. So your comparison of 7-9k tests per day comes from the days directly preceding when one enters the lag period. And, since positives are likely reported first, as you can see that the negatives are what is lagging, then yes, it looks like the positivity percentage is up when you look at the days that are specifically qualified as being incomplete.

But, to the larger issue of the idea of the US slowing down testing, this graph is helpful:

Also, the US has preformed more tests in July alone than any other country has during the entire pandemic.

My comment was in response to Utah’s own testing dip.

 

[infection]

My comment was in response to Utah’s own testing dip.

I know. And, as mentioned above, it hasn't demonstrated to be a dip unless those numbers stay low after the lag period ends. But regarding the US testing, I'm only mentioning that because this meme of Trump talking about slowing down testing tends to side track people from adequately gauging the reality of the amount of testing that's happening. We're testing nearly a million people per day. For reference, the past ten years we've been averaging 77,000 tests per year for influenza.

 

[The Thriller]

There is good news. Utah fell below 60 percent ICU capacity for the first time in months.

The number of those in the ICU with covid has been dropping since 7/23.

What is worry about are our drops in testing (the delay for days makes tracing and containment impossible) and a false sense of security to reopen in person schooling, football, and proceed as normal. The premature and rushed opening of the economy in May created unnecessary sickness and death. Likewise, the premature and rushed reopening of schools and football in the coming weeks would create unnecessary sickness and death this fall.

I liked what Davis School District just did.Jordan screwed the pooch. And I support UEA’s demand to wait a few weeks. We shouldn’t rush to reopen because a handful of angry and irrational parents want to get high school football going.

 

[The Thriller]

I know. And, as mentioned above, it hasn't demonstrated to be a dip unless those numbers stay low after the lag period ends. But regarding the US testing, I'm only mentioning that because this meme of Trump talking about slowing down testing tends to side track people from adequately gauging the reality of the amount of testing that's happening. We're testing nearly a million people per day. For reference, the past ten years we've been averaging 77,000 tests per year for influenza.

You seem to be conflating two different things. National tests and Utah tests.

Testing in Utah has taken a dip this week and the week before was lower than the preceding one while test positivity has gone up and delays have increased. If this wasn’t a problem then why did the Health Department rep on the call during Jordan School District’s Board Meeting last night say so?

 

[The Thriller]

I think a better sign would be testing in utah being down from the beginning and middle part of July while seeing a decline in positivity rates and delays for test results decreasing.

Instead, we are seeing fewer tests given, higher positivity rates, and longer delays. Those are not good signs. Especially since school reopening are priorities and we’re woefully unprepared.

How do you as an administrator contain an outbreak in your school when it takes nearly a week just to get test results back from employees and students suspected of being sick?

 

[fishonjazz]

I know. And, as mentioned above, it hasn't demonstrated to be a dip unless those numbers stay low after the lag period ends. But regarding the US testing, I'm only mentioning that because this meme of Trump talking about slowing down testing tends to side track people from adequately gauging the reality of the amount of testing that's happening. We're testing nearly a million people per day. For reference, the past ten years we've been averaging 77,000 tests per year for influenza.

Yep you shouldn't have to mention this but, like you said, there are these memes out there cause trump shouldnt have ever brought up his point of we should test less. Trump gonna trump though.

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[infection]

You seem to be conflating two different things. National tests and Utah tests.

Testing in Utah has taken a dip this week and the week before was lower than the preceding one while test positivity has gone up and delays have increased. If this wasn’t a problem then why did the Health Department rep on the call during Jordan School District’s Board Meeting last night say so?

I'm not conflating anything. Take another look above. My first graph is specifically from the Utah Coronovirus website. I couldn't tell you why they said that, if that's what they said, because it's in conflict with the data from their official website.

 

[infection]

Instead, we are seeing fewer tests given, higher positivity rates, and longer delays. Those are not good signs.

 

[The Thriller]

Yep you shouldn't have to mention this but, like you said, there are these memes out there cause trump shouldnt have ever brought up his point of we should test less. Trump gonna trump though.

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Weve also seen trump threaten leaders who don’t kiss his ring. Remember him threatening governors just a few months ago by withholding aid if they weren’t “nice” to him?
We’ve also seen governors cave under pressure from Trump as well, much to the detriment of public health.

I haven’t seen a single meme about testing less. I know it makes conservatives feel better to dehumanize critics of the president by accusing them of being persuaded by memes. It’s not that. I just know that trump is the most transparent leader I’ve ever seen. We’ve seen 4 years of this. From asking Russia “if they’re listening” to asking Comey to “drop the flynn thing” to publicly “considering pardons for those who stay quiet” to law enforcement “to not be so nice” to asking Ukraine “do us a favor though” to and now to testing. when he asks to slow down the testing, I know that some governors (especially in red states) will get the hint.

we know utah‘s government sacrificed public health in May. Are they doing it again?

Politicians and Business Interests Pushed Health Officials Aside to Control Reopening. Then Cases Exploded.

Interviews and internal emails show that Utah prioritized the health of businesses over keeping coronavirus case counts down. As case counts rise, the state will now allow indoor gatherings of up to 3,000 people.

www.propublica.org

 

[The Thriller]

I gotta tell ya, the messages I’ve received this past week from principals in Jordan, canyons, and Alpine are horrifying.

They admit that they don’t see a way to contain outbreaks in their schools. One showed me that they had about 3,000 students sign up for distance learning while 300 teachers have signed up. So roughly 10 students per teacher. That will force many at risk teachers into unsafe classrooms despite them signing up to teach online. They admit that teacher shortages are already happening (which will only increase class sizes that were already too big). They admit that they don’t have enough subs. KSL had a story just a week ago about how they’re 800 subs short. Several admit that it’s the vocal football parent lobby that’s rushing the reopening. They feel that if we did remote learning that they would spell the end of their football season. And one of them shared with me a screenshot of his search history, all jobs restocking shelves at night at a grocery store.

I really don’t have confidence that public health is being prioritized in our state’s reopening of schools. Nor do I have any confidence that this won’t end up being a huge train wreck, especially at the k-12 level. Once again, i am the canary in the coal mine. I’m warning you right now.

 

[Ron Mexico]

Let’s go to the data:

Also, the US has preformed more tests in July alone than any other country has during the entire pandemic.

That chart is missing some countries. Such as China that has tested more than the USA at over 90 million. Russia has tested 27+ million as well.

 

[infection]

That chart is missing some countries. Such as China that has tested more than the USA at over 90 million. Russia has tested 27+ million as well.

The chart is missing countries, and I was trying to find a more complete one but settled for that. With regard to who has tested the most, here's Johns Hopkins, updated for 7/29:

The U.S. has conducted more COVID-19 tests than any other country. However, there is no expert consensus on a recommended target for the raw number of tests or even the rate of tests per capita

How Does Testing in the U.S. Compare to Other Countries? - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

The U.S. has conducted more COVID-19 tests than any other country. However, there is no expert consensus on a recommended target for the raw number of tests or even the rate of tests per capita

coronavirus.jhu.edu

 

[infection]

I haven’t seen a single meme about testing less. I know it makes conservatives feel better to dehumanize critics of the president by accusing them of being persuaded by memes.

You're using meme in the specific sense of an image with a statement. I'm using meme in the broader sense of an idea repeated in simplicity and for the sake of humor, but represents and underlying cultural understanding. I won't address the idea that assuming someone is persuaded by memes dehumanizes them, but that's interesting (I'd argue that being persuaded by memes is a very human trait). The meme I'm referencing serves as a loophole for sidestepping the issue. For instance:

People: We aren't testing enough.
People: Our cases are rising!
Other people: We are testing a lot of people.
Trump: We are testing so much, we should reduce testing!
People: He suggests reducing testing!

We're side-stepping the issue of where our testing is at by using Trump as a distraction. That's why I'm attempting to refocus on the actual issue: the testing. A good example of that is taking place in this thread. You stated that Utah's testing has dipped. I gave you the graph of testing over time, showing no dip (unless you're counting the past 3 days that they've qualified as lags, which would be like saying "so and so only scored 2 points tonight" when it's the first quarter). I'm assuming you now understand what I was addressing, but we've been able to side-step the fact that this was wrong by discussing Trump and actually dropping the subject of discussion that brought Trump up.

 

[Avery]

Confirmed cases have been trending down in Utah which is refreshing to see. Hoping we can put the days of near 1k behind us and get down to the low-hundreds as a starting point (obviously 0 cases would be the goal). Mandatory masks in most large businesses has helped; still some room to grow in applying this to gas stations and smaller establishments.

Still a lot of work to do, but moving in the right direction.

 

[infection]

339 cases today.

Another thing I'd like to point out, if you look at the official tracking site for the state, they break down the graphs based on number of tests positive as well as number of people positive. This is more transparent than a lot of other states. This is important because the total positive tests that day account for retests. People have mentioned that people are tested frequently in the hospital (this is true, especially if these people are headed back to nursing homes whose criteria is a negative COVID test, and how those hospitalized will skew toward this kind of population). However, I have always pushed back on this idea because I do not believe testing of people inpatient on repeats is a large reason for positives, because so few people are hospitalized relative to those with positive tests (another good thing that you won't be hearing anywhere else). However, the larger component of retesting that would start to make a sizable impact in the daily report of positive tests is for employment: those people who can't return to work until they have a negative COVID test. Those would drastically outnumber hospital retests. So, what does this translate to? Not a ton, currently, but here are some numbers from last week:

7/19: 470 positive tests but only 418 new cases.
7/20: 690 positive tests but only 576 new cases.
7/21: 690 positive tests but only 613 new cases.
7/22: 754 positive tests but only 665 new cases.
7/23: 671 positive tests but only 614 new cases.
7/24: 671 positive tests but only 590 new cases.

So total for that 6-day span is 3,946 total positives, with 3,476 of those people being actual new cases. This is only about a 14% increase. So it's not that big. However, that proportion will continue to increase as testing increases, indentifying new cases that will require people to repeat tests for occupational purposes, and as they retest at higher frequencies.

But I don't know how they are vetting this, either, so if people are testing at different places, they may not have the ability to capture who has already tested positive, so 14% would likely be a minimum estimate, but by how much is unknown.

 

[fishonjazz]

You're using meme in the specific sense of an image with a statement. I'm using meme in the broader sense of an idea repeated in simplicity and for the sake of humor, but represents and underlying cultural understanding. I won't address the idea that assuming someone is persuaded by memes dehumanizes them, but that's interesting (I'd argue that being persuaded by memes is a very human trait). The meme I'm referencing serves as a loophole for sidestepping the issue. For instance:

People: We aren't testing enough.
People: Our cases are rising!
Other people: We are testing a lot of people.
Trump: We are testing so much, we should reduce testing!
People: He suggests reducing testing!

We're side-stepping the issue of where our testing is at by using Trump as a distraction. That's why I'm attempting to refocus on the actual issue: the testing. A good example of that is taking place in this thread. You stated that Utah's testing has dipped. I gave you the graph of testing over time, showing no dip (unless you're counting the past 3 days that they've qualified as lags, which would be like saying "so and so only scored 2 points tonight" when it's the first quarter). I'm assuming you now understand what I was addressing, but we've been able to side-step the fact that this was wrong by discussing Trump and actually dropping the subject of discussion that brought Trump up.

The lesson, as always, is that everything would be better if there were no trump.

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[infection]

The lesson, as always, is that everything would be better if there were no trump.

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Unfortunately "we just can't help ourselves in in our response to Trump -- it's his fault" fails to be a legitimate discussion point when someone who isn't Trump is engaging with someone substantively on the issues.