On the radar: 2012 Draft Class

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Really? What else do you evaluate on, then? If you go back and look at the top 10 ranked players from each of the past however many years, you'll see the best talent evaluators have done a damn good job of projecting these players. I don't so much look at stats. I watch for size, skill, and intangibles ... and those are all easy to gauge regrdless of the level of competition. Defense has been the most difficult area for me to project from one level to the next, but still not all that unreliable.

A player either has legitimate size or he doesn't.
A player can handle the ball or he can't.
Pass.
Shoot.
Rebounding instincts.

All of these are fairly easy to figure. No, not really dumb at all.

I think it is for evaluating them at the pro level, which is what I thought this thread was about. Maybe you are just doing it for college, idk. I'm aware there is nothing to judge them off of other than that, but I would rather just wait until they get at least a half season of college ball before I evaluate anyone.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I think it is for evaluating them at the pro level, which is what I thought this thread was about. Maybe you are just doing it for college, idk. I'm aware there is nothing to judge them off of other than that, but I would rather just wait until they get at least a half season of college ball before I evaluate anyone.

Those services are for the college level, but is also a fairly good gauge of the pro level. I know it's a tremendously bad example, but John Wall comes in as the #1 player to college and leaves, after one year, the #1 player drafted .. and for ROY was #1 from his class (sans Griffin from the year prior). Griffin is another bad, but perfect, example .. and so on. I'm not arguing any specific point, just saying that it's not all that difficult to evaluate the potential of players while they are still in high school.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Those services are for the college level, but is also a fairly good gauge of the pro level. I know it's a tremendously bad example, but John Wall comes in as the #1 player to college and leaves, after one year, the #1 player drafted .. and for ROY was #1 from his class (sans Griffin from the year prior). Griffin is another bad, but perfect, example .. and so on. I'm not arguing any specific point, just saying that it's not all that difficult to evaluate the potential of players while they are still in high school.

Yeah, but how many bust were there back in the lat 90's/early 00's when HS players were getting drafted in the lottery. Jonathan Bender? Kwame Brown?

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

The success rate for high first-round picks taken right out of high school is pretty high. Jonathan Bender was a good prospect who got injured, but obviously players like Kobe, Lebron, KG, Jermaine O'Neal, Amare, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith (??), etc. have panned out. All were taken in the first half of the first round.

 

[Dr. Jones]

The success rate for high first-round picks taken right out of high school is pretty high. Jonathan Bender was a good prospect who got injured, but obviously players like Kobe, Lebron, KG, Jermaine O'Neal, Amare, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith (??), etc. have panned out. All were taken in the first half of the first round.

Yep, this. Nothing is foolproof, but I feel pretty comfortable gauging the talent to the next level(s).

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The success rate for high first-round picks taken right out of high school is pretty high. Jonathan Bender was a good prospect who got injured, but obviously players like Kobe, Lebron, KG, Jermaine O'Neal, Amare, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith (??), etc. have panned out. All were taken in the first half of the first round.

I'm pretty bored, so I'm going to go through all the picks since 1990, lets say all top 16 picks? See how they panned out. You may be right.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I'm pretty bored, so I'm going to go through all the picks since 1990, lets say all top 16 picks? See how they panned out. You may be right.

We are normally talking about players in the lottery (at least lately). I'd be curious what you find, specifically in increments of 5 ... 1-5, 6-10, 11-15 .. I realize you're not going to put that level of work into it, but it would be interesting.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

1990 - No HS Players selected

1991- No HS Players selected

1992- No HS Players selected

1993- No HS Players selected

1994- No HS Players selected

1995- Kevin Garnett

1996- Kobe Bryant

1997- Tmac

1998- No HS players selected

1999- Jonathan Bender

2000 - Darius Miles

2001- Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry, Desagna Diop

2002- Amare

2003- Lebron James

2004- Dwight Howard, Shaun Livingston, Robert Swift (people thought this guy was good?), Al Jefferson

2005- Martell Webster, Andrew Bynum,

Total taken: 17

HOF: Lebron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, Kevin Garnett

Allstars: Tmac, Amare, Al Jefferson

Pretty Good: Tyson Chandler, Andrew Bynum

Meh: Martell Webster

Bust: Shaun Livingston, Robert Swift, Darius Miles, Kwame Brown, Desagna Diop, Eddy Curry, Jonathan Bender

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Ok, interestingly enough, many of the "bust" could be attributed to horrible injury luck. Bender, Miles, and Livingston all had promising careers.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

10/17 players are considered to be great players in todays game though.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I also noticed, I think, 2 HS players selected #17 who are both pretty good (Josh Smith and someone else).

 

[Dr. Jones]

Ok, interestingly enough, many of the "bust" could be attributed to horrible injury luck. Bender, Miles, and Livingston all had promising careers.

Thanks for looking it up. Not sure exactly what was concluded, but at least it's empirical data.